1000M WR, Ngeny went through 800 in 1:44.62

I believe you mean 27.34. Regardless, yes, it was a fantastic run by Ngeny. Many believe that without injuries Ngeny could have challenged El Guerrouj's record. Personally, I'm not really sure that he could have - it's such a fantastic record - but I'll bet he could have come closer than he did, at the very least (maybe sub 3:27). For a more scientific estimate, Ventolin's calculator might have a good estimation of what kind of shape he was in that day.

asdfdj wrote:

I believe you mean 27.34. Regardless, yes, it was a fantastic run by Ngeny. Many believe that without injuries Ngeny could have challenged El Guerrouj's record. Personally, I'm not really sure that he could have - it's such a fantastic record - but I'll bet he could have come closer than he did, at the very least (maybe sub 3:27). For a more scientific estimate, Ventolin's calculator might have a good estimation of what kind of shape he was in that day.

He ran 3:43.40. And you think he couldn't have realistically challenged 3:26.00?

I did not say I didn't think he couldn't challenge it. I said it wasn't such a sure thing that he could have broken it. Besides, if you're going to cite Ngeny's 3:43.40 as evidence he could have run under 3:26.00, El Guerrouj has the record at 3:43.13, so that does not make much sense. Most conversions put 3:43.40 at just above 3:26.00 for 1500m anyway. If the extension to your argument is that Ngeny had better speed then El Guerrouj, that may have been true, and you're welcome to your opinion. I don't think it's ludicrous to say that Ngeny wasn't a sure thing to break El Guerrouj's record, though.

Would have been very difficult, but with his speed a likely scenario of 3:25 is fathomable. 1:49 at 800 2:45 1200 close in 40. Still very difficult.

asdfdj wrote:

I believe you mean 27.34. Regardless, yes, it was a fantastic run by Ngeny. Many believe that without injuries Ngeny could have challenged El Guerrouj's record. Personally, I'm not really sure that he could have - it's such a fantastic record - but I'll bet he could have come closer than he did, at the very least (maybe sub 3:27). For a more scientific estimate, Ventolin's calculator might have a good estimation of what kind of shape he was in that day.

Ventolin's calculator will give you a hypothetical approximation in an ideal world based on performances in different events which neither Ventolin nor anyone else knows whether they were achieved at maximum assertion.

I sometimes think he uses a variety of handles, just to ask questions and then seeking answers from Venty, in order to promote his own calculator. Please don't encourage him to ruin yet another thread. If you decide to then at least youve been warned.

Ngeny slowed in the last 200 as expected at 1:44 pace. Hes always been a suspicious character. As with the other great milers at the time, absolutely no 800 form to their names, yet exceptional over distance endurance.

Then theres him being pulled at the last minute from the Kenyan World team of 01, and the freak accident that stopped him training "properly" but didn't stop him running 3:32/3:33's for the next couple of seasons, before retiring in his early 20's. Not to mention the various rumors and accusations of wrong doing in Sydney 2000. No proof has come to light but his career projection just screams of EPO use.

The guy was a fraud just like Komen.

I won't disagree that sometimes ventolin's arguing can become extremely disruptive, but a large part of this thread is asking what kind of shape Ngeny might have been able to ideally achieve. Ventolin's calculator may not be a perfect predictor, but I think it does tend to give numbers that provoke interesting discussion. If you were somehow implying that I am ventolin under another username, I can assure you that's not true.

As for the assertion that Ngeny was potentially using PEDs, I do remember discussion cropping up about suspected EPO use around Sydney, but for whatever reason I've never been able to find it again. Even if Ngeny was doping, however, he was an exceptionally talented athlete anyway, and I would hesitate to call either him or Komen a fraud without any conclusive evidence other than mere suspicion.

Claimjumper wrote:

Would have been very difficult, but with his speed a likely scenario of 3:25 is fathomable. 1:49 at 800 2:45 1200 close in 40. Still very difficult.

Do you not think it strange that in the 7 years or so since EL G and Ngeny retired and Lagat got old, that not a single athlete has got within 3 secs of what they were running at 1500 and a mile? And that before 1995 only one man had just dipped under 3:29?

ALL THE SUB 3:29'S BAR MORCELI'S 3:28.86 WERE RUN BETWEEN 95 AND 04.

That is very strange indeed. Until, one realizes that EPO was non detectable for the first 6 years of that period and from then on the test was shit. Chambers admitted to taking it and didn't register any positives for it, and so did Jones, according to her husband/coach.

Indicative wrote:

Then theres him being pulled at the last minute from the Kenyan World team of 01, and the freak accident that stopped him training "properly" but didn't stop him running 3:32/3:33's for the next couple of seasons, before retiring in his early 20's. Not to mention the various rumors and accusations of wrong doing in Sydney 2000. No proof has come to light but his career projection just screams of EPO use.

The guy was a fraud just like Komen.

Injuries suck. He struggled to stay healthy after the car accident (as can happen to anyone, even normal, non-elite runners).

Indicative wrote:

Do you not think it strange that in the 7 years or so since EL G and Ngeny retired and Lagat got old, that not a single athlete has got within 3 secs of what they were running at 1500 and a mile? And that before 1995 only one man had just dipped under 3:29?

ALL THE SUB 3:29'S BAR MORCELI'S 3:28.86 WERE RUN BETWEEN 95 AND 04.

That is very strange indeed. Until, one realizes that EPO was non detectable for the first 6 years of that period and from then on the test was shit. Chambers admitted to taking it and didn't register any positives for it, and so did Jones, according to her husband/coach.

7 years is really not that long.

Shit, Alan Webb ran 3:46 a few years ago. I don't doubt that he was clean, or that other clean athletes can run faster. No doubt, this a a down period for 1500 running . . . but that in itself doesn't suggest PED use to me.

Indicative wrote:

ALL THE SUB 3:29'S BAR MORCELI'S 3:28.86 WERE RUN BETWEEN 95 AND 04.

That is very strange indeed.

Not really. There have been twenty 1500m races when someone has broken 3:29.00 and one man was in 75% of them. It's no surprise then that, since he retired, he's not there to run sub-3:29.00 anymore, nor is he there to drag other guys behind him to fast times.

Biggest Douche in the Universe wrote:

7 years is really not that long.

Shit, Alan Webb ran 3:46 a few years ago. I don't doubt that he was clean, or that other clean athletes can run faster. No doubt, this a a down period for 1500 running . . . but that in itself doesn't suggest PED use to me.

I don't think it's a down period at all at the moment. Things have just gone back to where they were pre EPO.

Put another way,

In the history of T&F up to 1993, there was only 1 person who broke 3:29.0,

Morceli ~ 3:28.86.

Between 1995 and 2004 inclusive (10 years), 3:29 was bettered 31 times by 6 different athletes.

In the 7 seasons since. NO (zero) has broken 3:29.0 and 3:30 has been bettered only 7 times.

In the mIle, 3:48 was bettered 6 times by 5 athletes up to 1993.

In the 12 seasons that followed it was broken 22 times by 9 athletes.

In the 7 seasons since 2004, only 2 athletes (1 apiece) have broken 3:48, and no one has broken 3:46.

The years 1993-2004 stick out like the proverbial sore thumb in terms of 1500m running. Even if there was just one athlete running similar times today, one could give the previous generation the benefit of the doubt, but there hasn't been a single performance to match what several were doing in the late 90s early 00s.

2 things to bear in mind for noah's run :

1) fatigue of a 3'29.1 in his legs just 2/7 before

so no way rested before this race

if you are preparing for a "proper" attempt, you take at least 1/52 off to rest/taper/carb load/etc

2) even more ridiculous than 1'44.6 split is the suicidal

~ 49.9 split he went at 400

that is 1'42-flat pace !!!

that is absolute crazy split !!!

he shouda been going out nearer 52 if properly paced

i was using ~ 2'11.3 or 2'11.4 as his potential that day with proper rest & ideal pace, but i think you've got to think nearer 2'11-flat

Bner wrote:Did he the speed to go 1:41 low on this day or even 3:25 for 1500M?

i always used to go with this line for him :

47.30 / 1'42.60 -> 2'11.47 , 2'40.92 , 3'25.98

but recently, i think he was worth much faster over 1k than that

some better lines may be :

47.20 / 1'42.50 -> 2'11.38 , 2'40.86 , 3'25.96

47.10 / 1'42.40 -> 2'11.30 , 2'40.80 , 3'25.94

47.00 / 1'42.30 -> 2'11.22 , 2'40.73 , 3'25.93

46.90 / 1'42.20 -> 2'11.13 , 2'40.67 , 3'25.91

46.80 / 1'42.10 -> 2'11.05 , 2'40.61 , 3'25.89

the 1500 is virtually unchanged ( & he may not have "lasted" perfectly beyond 1k ), but i'm more of belief that he was in

~ 1'42.1 / 1'42.2

shape that day

ventolin^3 wrote:

moron

if you think any degree of glycogen depletion or myofibril damage of 3'29.1 from 2/7 before doesn't impair performance for a race 2/7 later , then you are a complete imbecile

You argued you'd need a week of resting and carbo loading. Now you're changing your argument. Par for the course. Apparently the 3:29 did not hurt Ngeny very much. It is not apparent that he could have run faster without it. Maybe, maybe not, but either way, carbo loading is not at issue here. Study harder next time.

moron

what argument change ???

there are 2 separate issues here which you fail to comprehend

1) only an imbecile recommends running 3'29.1 just 2/7 before an attempt at a wr at any targeted race - look up microtears on myofibrils/capillary damage/etc in addition to glycogen depletion - study idiot

2) ideal prep, means no racing for 1/52 before at least, rest & carb loading for maximal glycogen stores for any targeted race of 800m or above

learn distinction idiot

ventolin^3 wrote:

2 things to bear in mind for noah's run :

1) fatigue of a 3'29.1 in his legs just 2/7 before

so no way rested before this race

if you are preparing for a "proper" attempt, you take at least 1/52 off to rest/taper/carb load/etc

Moron. Carbo-loading is counterproductive for short events. You see, there's a little thing called "water" that adds what's called "weight" when you carbo-load.

Time for your meds, Ventolin. Double dosage, this time.

You're the moron who conflated the issues. You're so stupid it is frightening. You started going on about carbo loading for a 1000 meter race. I called you on your complete lack of foundational knowledge on the subject, and you proceeded to change the subject to the 1500m race two days before the 2:11.96. This is how you argue. You lose arguments and you change the subject.

Let's begin with carbo loading. Show me evidence that carbo loading is a factor in a race which lasts less than 2 minutes and 12 seconds. Yes, show me, moron...

jennifer cruz wrote:

Show me evidence that carbo loading is a factor in a race which lasts less than 2 minutes and 12 seconds. Yes, show me, moron...

It is a factor. A negative factor. It adds weight--typically @3-4 lbs.

imbecile

how stoopid are you ???

"1) fatigue of a 3'29.1 in his legs just 2/7 before

so no way rested before this race

if you are preparing for a "proper" attempt, you take at least 1/52 off to rest/taper/carb load/etc"

what part of your numbskull can't comprehend that you DON'T run a 3'29.1 2/7 before a wr attempt & if you are preparing for a proper wr attempt you take 1/52 off to rest/taper/carb load/etc

as for carbo laoading for races of 800 or more :

show me where it is guaranteed you have full glycogen stores prior to the attempt without doing so ???