Could Lance win the Ironman in Hawaii?

so say he's 5 minutes back after the swim. how much faster is he over the 112mi(?) bike?

Usain could win Olympic Gold in the 1500m if he put his mind to it. He is an amazing athlete.

I have heard from people in Austin that Lance has been working with the swim team coach at UT for a few years with an eye on competing in an ironman.

I think the real issue for Lance will be whether he has to qualify like everyone else or whether he will get a free pass into Kona. If he has to qualify and has some ironman experience before Kona, it could be interesting. If not, it could be embarassing.

The real question is whether he will go whole hog into the training or just wing it like he did for the marathons. With the recent 60 minutes story, Lance has not been out in public that much. He may just bury himself in ironman training to have an excuse for avoiding the public and press on the doping allegations.

Yes, he would have a chance. The swim, he would indeed lose about 10 minutes, but then he's the best biker in the history of the world, so I don't see why he'd have much problem catching up to the lead again and putting a gap on everybody.

That article pretty much spells out his triathlon goals. Looks like he's leading more towards the Chicago Marathon.

Just a few highlights from Lance:

"Yeah, a return to the triathlon. At some point, it's a possibility, but probably not this year. If I were to do an Ironman, there is only one place I can finish that will satisfy people. That is a tremendous amount of pressure for a hard event. I mean, you go get fifth place at the age of 40 or 41 years old, that's pretty good. For an old guy."

"My goal is to not be in Hawaii"

He is a better athlete than everyone in the ironman fields with a strong endurance base, who has dominated events much more competitive than the ironman. It might take a couple years of training but I don't see why not.

PreRunner wrote:

I say he will....after he drops down a big PR in Chicago, I bet he will focus on the Ironman and dominate.

He'll be 40 in September! No way he can dominate the Ironman. He could have had he focused on that his whole career, but not now.

johnny buck wrote:

Depends... how much doping is there in triathlons?

LiveWrong

Very little. I'm sure it isn't completely without, but several professional triathletes went into triathlons because in the sports they had been in, such as cycling, the only way to get to the top was through doping and that just wasn't what they wanted to do.

The triathletes I know (and it's a limited crowd) all say that the swimming piece is the toughest one. (Except for the ones who started as swimmers, of course.) So I don't think it's possible to answer this question about Armstrong unless you know something about how he handles himself in open water. You can be a cardiovascular monster from Parnassus but if you can't pull a stroke, you ain't gonna do much in an Ironman.

Interesting, Precious Roy! That he's been working out in the pool in Austin. Obviously he is thinking about an Ironman. It's highly doubtful, however, that he could ever be dominant. I suppose he'll weigh his options. Maybe if he thinks he can be presentable, he'll show up. But he'd be a fool to start with a full Ironman.

toujour wrote:

Yes, he would have a chance. The swim, he would indeed lose about 10 minutes, but then he's the best biker in the history of the world, so I don't see why he'd have much problem catching up to the lead again and putting a gap on everybody.

Best Tour de France rider, but not best rider overall. He's way behind Merckx.

That's like asking if Ryan Hall could win the ironman in Hawaii. Lance was a BIKER. He can't swim and he isn't a runner. You're question is stupid.

not the goat wrote:

He's way behind Merckx.

agreed

I doubt Lance would win his age group at Kona.

Let's not count out "muscle memory"...in other words, I have seen guys and gals(Dara Torres) "comeback" after years being away from her sport and still be an Olympic swimmer. In Lance's case, I believe the swimming will come back(maybe not to his teen years), but it will come back because of his athletic prowess. This still doesn't mean he will win an Ironman. What people have to realize is that top triathletes on the bike over a 112 mile "time trial" are no slouches....Of course Lance would probably have the fastest bike split, but I can assure you that it won't be as dominating as everyone belives. That's simply due to his age. I think Lance could probably run a 2:30 or under marathon even at his age now, but it would take close to a 2:45 at least marathon "split" after a pretty strong bike split to have a chance. Do I believe he could win his age-group, I would put more into that, then overall win. The question would have been could he have won an Ironman in 2003 and 04 and 05 when he was at his bicycle peak?

let's try looking at the simple math of it.

In April 2011 the guy does an open water swim in 49 and change....because you can draft in the swim leg you don't even have to be the best to stay with the best...so he loses no time to the other top pros

Swim - :49

bike - 4:20 +/-

add in a little transition time and he's 5:10+.....

run - 2:50 = an 8 hour ironman (how is that not competitive)

the thing you have to remember about the run is this is not a "normal" marathon run...it is how fast/well can you run after biking 112 hard miles - a better cyclist (like Lance will fare better than most because the bike will not destroy him and he can run and has run a marathon)

Plus it is an edurance test/run - this is not a finese see how fast you can run in perfect 60 degree conditions - it is a slug feast run - hot and humid - how well can you run when tired and having to endure. Anyone who does a tour in cycling is going to understand and adjust well to this.

however, most cyclist do not have the legs for running very quickly - Lance does.

Conclusion - he would be very competitve...even at 40 (as enduarance does not leave with age).

I am the Walrus wrote:

Realistically Armstrong may not even have the strongest bike leg, but that depends on how he reacts to cycling after the swim. We will see, and I am curious to find out.

But yes, I believe he will loose 40 - 60 min on the swim and run combined to the top 2 and won't be able to regain this on the cycling leg.

I am also not sure how much serious training Lance puts into his IM effort.

"Armstrong may not even have the strongest bike...."

This might be the most ridiculous statement I've ever seen on letsrun.

The run is Lance's problem. He MIGHT be in contention after the swim and bike but there is no way he runs sub 3:00 for the marathon and there is no way he could get a 20 min. lead headed into the run.

Swim: On a good day I can see him swimming 52:00-55:00, which is a fine swim.

Bike: If conditions are favorable, he kills everybody. If they're not, he kills them even worse. I can see him riding right on 4:00-4:10 there and not have dug too deep. That would be ridiculous.

Run: Several factors here. One, does he alter his bike position so that he can run, or does he remain back on his 73* seat angle and start the run with back and ass pain. Does he hydrate enough? Can he handle the heat? Does he want to win badly enough to fight through the last 10 miles? I don't see him running under 3:10.

That means, in my view, that a very good day brings him home in 8:20 or so. Some years that's good enough to win, and most years it's not. If he's going to win he has to have terrible, windy conditions on the bike so that he dominates everyone by 15 minutes or more.

A more realistic tread would be:

'Could Lance do better than Laurent Jalabert's 76th place in the Ironman in Hawai?'

The answer would arguably still be no (Jalabert being a better runner), but obviously much more debatable.

Yes. Steve Larsen was a former pro cyclist who won Wildflower and finished 9th at Kona in the early 2000's. Armstrong was a better bike racer than Larsen. So, Armstrong will finish better than 9th at Kona, and yes, I think he could win.