Assume Bolt is clean at 9.58 -- how fast could he run on drugs?

I think if he ran a 9.58 clean he'd top out somewhere around 9.36 doped. I really don't think he'd take off 4 10ths. With his physique (he's already 198 lbs and 6'4") he might run a high risk of injury if he suddenly became way stronger - think about it - imagine the force a 220 lbs man would put on his body running 9.4 or faster. I mean, it's already more force than anyone in the world puts on their body when he runs at speed given he's roughly 200 lbs running a 9.58.

some MIT guys show clearly here how biomechanically steroids could help world class sprinters like bolt. their estimate is 9.39 but the video is sick

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drk4emkXC3A

To the point about winds being 2.0 then sure many athletes would exceed the 9.8 to 9.9 drug free cap I cite. I am speaking of 0.0 when converted. Now how do I "know" this well let me say I am a coach in the sport for 30 years and been around all the sprint camps and can say there is enough talk to confirm who is clean.

I agree Asafa has best technique and he is not a heavy user compared to some which I do think contributes to his issues at big meets but there is no drug to prevent choking.

On the point of guys pushing their bodies to the max and then breaking down I will offer this additional thought. The 100 has a certain level of stress but many of the guys getting hurt are doing so in the 200. Trying to run so fast on the curve can only be tolerated so much before the body ligaments, tendons, muscles, joints, etc tear or break down.

Look at how Xavier Carter blew out in the 200 in Indy in 07 and hasn't been the same since. Wallace Spearmon has trouble now. Gay says he is not likely to try the 200. Bolt has suffered obviously. You get the point.

What about the 200? a 19.1 is not exactly something to be repeated either. 19.6 stood for about 20 years before Michael Johnson broke it.......

Speed Limit-

Ah but that comes with the territory of being a 200m runner! You see, in order to run the 200 properly you need speed endurance. You get this by training...HARD. More intensely and longer than a 100m runner. Which is why people like Donovan Bailey never got injured. Ben Johnson as well. It is not the turn that causes injury but the training sessions that stress the body more.

Geezer, I say 9.74 because let's be honest. You can argue that anyone in the world can run this certain time with the perfect legal wind behind them. But how rare is that? To be at the prime of your athletic capabilities AND to also have a legal 2.0 wind perfectly behind your back?

That's such an absurd coincidence i can hardly use that in my conjectures. Maurice Greene never had a 2.0 wind and ran insanely fast. Tyson Gay ran 9.69 and without wind would have ran 9.79... a far cry away from his 9.71 (which would arguably be around 9.75 with no wind).

Hell, Richard Thompson is a 9.79 guy if you throw in the +2.0 wind when he ran 9.89 runner up at Beijing!

What i'm getting at here- and you know very well- is that it's like wishing for a comet to streak across the night sky to wish upon.... for someone to have a perfect 2.0 tailwind and ALSO be at their absolute best. It's not gonna happen.

I know we are delving into hypothetical situations here, but lets keep it realistic and not to the point of absurdity. Donovan Bailey has never closed as fast as he did in Atlanta. You can't tell me he has because it would have been faster than 9.84 for sure given his atrocious start when he did it. Why? Much like Michael Johnson's 19.32 was summed up as the "Greatest adrenaline rush" of all time due to his stumble out of the blocks so too was Donovan Bailey's.

You named the variables. 2.0 wind and a start equal to everyone's. If that's the case Bailey would NEVER have triggered that insane burst of speed to PULL away from everyone. No chance.

And Geezer... you can't just change people's starts. As easy as it is to change a distance runner's mechanics its highly inadvisable to do anything that drastic to a sprinter. Sprinters need rhythm... if you change too much they'll lose that rhythm and be slow. If Bailey's coach tried to change his start Bailey would be SLOWER. Because his rhythm would be gone. Look at Powell way back at the 2004 Olympics. His start has not changed since then. Tyson Gay as well. You would think that with all the knowledge these coaches have they would fix it. But they cant! All they can do is eliminate wasted motion or fix body angles... minor things like that. To make it more efficient. Sorry, but at this level after running for years.. the last thing you want is to learn how to come out the blocks again.

'Which is why people like Donovan Bailey never got injured. Ben Johnson as well'

Johnson was injured in the months leading upto his Olympic 'win'. That's why he got busted as he had to say on the juice too late

The sprints are just a bad joke when it comes to drugs

Sprint Geezer wrote:Johnson shaved off something like 0.4, didn't he?

this is misleading

he was heading for nothing better than 10.10 - 10.15 basic in his career, but he couda run close to 6.50 ( = ~ 10.00 if he ran the last 40 as good as the 60 )

he essentially was a 60m guy who didn't have any 200 endurance to hold on for the last 40

this is where the 'roids made a big difference

they substituted for his lack of 200 ability & let him run the last 40 as good as his initial 60

without drugs :

6.50 / 10.10 - 10.15 ( couda been 10.00 if the 200 ability existed )

with drugs

6.40 / 9.80 basic

in fact the "true" improvement wouda been ~ 0.20s if he'd had the pre-existing 200 ability, which all elite 100 guys really shoud have

apply this to bolt who has no weakness in any part of the race - fast start/pick-up/top-end/speed decay last 40

he woud unlikely benefit by no more than 0.20s from drugs as he doesn't have any weakness for the drugs to sort out & all he can expect is a global improvement in every aspect of his race

9.38 - 9.48 on drugs

ukathleticscoach wrote:

'Which is why people like Donovan Bailey never got injured. Ben Johnson as well'

Johnson was injured in the months leading upto his Olympic 'win'. That's why he got busted as he had to say on the juice too late

The sprints are just a bad joke when it comes to drugs

agreed

Assume Bolt gets off the juice....then how slow will he run? 9.9, 10.2,.....11.2???

i love how the brojos allow drug accusations, but you can't discuss an admitted drug cheat.

You people that think everyone at the top cheats are just stupid.

In any sort of human endeavor the range of skills fits a bell curve, and the best are usually further ahead than you would intuitively think they are.

Just a bunch of jealous 15 minute 5k joggers IMO.

Americans are the worst, Bolt is not doing any kind of drugs he's just really tall and talented so it doesn't take him as many steps to run as other athletes. I'm sure being the World Record Holder he's been tested a number of times with no positive results. Americns just can't figur how another country can produce a better athlete then them. It's sad!!!!!!

Are you "Really" serious. He is %100 on drugs. Obviously you have never competed anywhere near any of these guys.

The curve includes all of the drug users. They are all using at that level.

I'm with Canova on this one.

The very best in the world just don't get any advantage from drugs.

The reason is something to do with fairies and the fact that the very best in the world are just oh so nice, and that their niceness cancels out any effects that drugs would have on them.

Saw Tyson Gay at a restaurant here in Denver yesterday. Didn't know sprinters came to altitude to train but maybe that's his new method to beating Bolt. Overspeed by training at high speed at altitude. Makes sense if you think about it. Lets see Tyson drop a 9.55 at Eugene next week.

Bolt is 6'5" at the least.

But he is only about 200 pounds.

He's definitely in the Carl Lewis/Frankie Fredericks skinny sprinter group.

Word out on the street is Dix is hurting and will only run either the 1 or the 2 in Eugene and with Tyson and maybe an injured Wallace out of the 200 I bet he goes solo in 200 and doesn't have to extend himself til the final and won't have to run but 3 races vs 6 if he doubles.

Tyson is hurting after NY and hadn't even practiced all week is word I got in a text today so he might have trouble surviving 3 rounds in Eugene although the first round is a stride for him.

Imagine the US sprint team vs Jamaica if Tyson and Dix and Spearmon are all unable to qualify next week. Ok, don't think of that cuz that means like no medals for the US in 1 or 2 if that turns out to be the case.