agree on Wheating and Webb (when in peak form) being able to beat the current Lagat at 1500. I could even see Monzano beating the current Lagat at 1500
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So if you are right Webb could beat Lagat over 1500m in 1 year out of 20. What an achievement!
When Webb was in the peak two months of his career and Lagat was in the worst shape of his, Webb could outkick him in a tight 1500. But Lagat looks stronger than that now.
Manzano is usually not capable of running 3:35 before July or August, so unless he has dramatically changed his schedule, he will struggle to make the team next month.
Wheating has run one 1500 within 10 seconds of Lagat's PR, but he is the biggest wildcard.
We may need to contort a bit more to make this work. Let's say Wheating and Webb at their career bests will probably be better than Lagat is in a few years.