Who will be the next American to win Olympic gold in either the 5000, 10000, or marathon? And, what year do you think it will happen? Male or female, your choice.
If you don't think anyone that is currently fairly well-known will take gold, predict the first person who will medal at all.
If you don't think any of the currently-known athletes will ever medal, feel free to discuss why.
Discuss.
2020-Male. Marathon. Some guy that is still really young.
shalane will medal in london. solinsky in the 10 is my second pick. i dont think we are getting a distance gold in london
lagat has a chance at a medal in the 5 or 10k in london 2012.
flanagan has a chance in the marathon.
lagat is the best chance we have at 5k, 10k or the marathon.
ummmmmmm ... ever heard of Jordan Hasay?
lenny wrote:
ummmmmmm ... ever heard of Jordan Hasay?
bronze in 2016 in the 5k.
2016 olymoics 5k
1. meseret dibaba 14:07
2. mercy cherono 14:08
3. jordan hasay 14:14
douglas burke wrote:
lagat has a chance at a medal in the 5 or 10k in london 2012.
flanagan has a chance in the marathon.
lagat is the best chance we have at 5k, 10k or the marathon.
Lagat will be done on the world scene this year. He simply doesn't have it in him anymore. He's too old. His performances have leveled off and have been declining since his 3:26 10 years ago.
In 2012 it will take a sub 12:50 5ker with blazing finishes just to win a medal.
Lagat will not run the 10k.
Could he still break 3:50 in the mile this year? Of course. Could he still break 13 in the 5k? Of course. But the era when those standards made you competitive for a medal are gone especially when you're 35 going on 36.
This isn't the 110 hurdles, the Long jump, or some women's event where a 40 y/o woman can be competitive.
The Olympic level of the 5k is the most competitive area in Track and Field, just as competitive as the men's 100m or 1500. Every year new names, some new Kenyan or someone else.
Hasay 5k 2020
koll marathon 2016
I agree, it's some boy or a girl in elementary school. I don't see anyone we have now winning gold. Maybe Sally Kipyego if she ever becomes American. Chelenga in the marathon??
But yeah, probably some kid who currently likes pokemon.
If baldini can win the marathon, an american can
douglas burke wrote:
lenny wrote:ummmmmmm ... ever heard of Jordan Hasay?
bronze in 2016 in the 5k.
2016 olymoics 5k
1. meseret dibaba 14:07
2. mercy cherono 14:08
3. jordan hasay 14:14
ygfr wrote:
If baldini can win the marathon, an american can
douglas burke wrote:bronze in 2016 in the 5k.
2016 olymoics 5k
1. meseret dibaba 14:07
2. mercy cherono 14:08
3. jordan hasay 14:14
Boy, if Meseret Defar and Tirunesh Dibaba merge into one in the next five years, distance WRs are in trouble.
twig mzungu wrote:
ygfr wrote:If baldini can win the marathon, an american can
Boy, if Meseret Defar and Tirunesh Dibaba merge into one in the next five years, distance WRs are in trouble.
meseret dibaba is the baby sister of tirunesh, ejegeyahu and genzebe dibaba.
meseret dibaba has never raced outside of ethiopia yet.
meseret dibaba was born on june 26th, 1997 so she will be 19 when the 2016 come around. didnt her sister tirunesh win her first world title at 17-18?
I'm going with Wheating for the gold in the 1500.
Yes, I know the 1500 isn't in the OP's range. But to me, it's close enough and I think Wheating has a legitimate (if long shot) chance.
Solinsky in the 10000.
I think Lagat might have a shot in the 5000 this year (depending on Bekele's fitness, and that of Koech) but he might be too old for a gold shot in 2012. Depends on the competition, of course.
Michael Phelps
No one has predicted a date later than 2020. There are only 18 gold medals in the 5000, 10000, and Marathon by 2020. There will be Americans that have as good of shot going in to win a few of those races as Baldini. But I'd say there's a good chance there won't be an American gold medalist by then.
I'll go with 2028 by a girl who's in early grade school right now.
douglas burke wrote:meseret dibaba was born on june 26th, 1997 so she will be 19 when the 2016 come around. didnt her sister tirunesh win her first world title at 17-18?
you are delusional
a 14y ole with no known clockings is your fave ?!
her sister won the 5k in '03 in a poor race, only winning because adere was wasted from the 10k, otherwise she wouda got blown away
pooky wrote:Lagat will be done on the world scene this year. He simply doesn't have it in him anymore. He's too old. His performances have leveled off and have been declining since his 3:26 10 years ago
you clearly didn't look at his 8'10 which is worth ~ 7'33 with usual 1.08 conversion
that was run off a slow 1st mile & shows he is close to 7'30i currently, which is better than ever before
he may have finally cranked up his mileage, which he was reluctant to do before & i have no hesitation in believing he can go 12'50 this year
others may go 12'45, but they don't have bernie's 1500 speed ( some of which he shoud still retain - his previous 3'32/3'33 may even improve to 3'31/3'32 with the extra mileage )
unless kennster runs away in last 3k like in peking, it's likely to be a slow race & set up for the kickers - if they go thru the bell in 12'10, believe you me, bernie will be right there at the finish
ventolin^3 wrote:
douglas burke wrote:meseret dibaba was born on june 26th, 1997 so she will be 19 when the 2016 come around. didnt her sister tirunesh win her first world title at 17-18?you are delusional
a 14y ole with no known clockings is your fave ?!
her sister won the 5k in '03 in a poor race, only winning because adere was wasted from the 10k, otherwise she wouda got blown away
no known clockings, but she has to have phenomenal genetics.
so do komen, ngeny, bernie, vivian, linet, etc
why don't you go for one of their teenage sisters ???