I've recently ran 1:16:44 (Dec) and 1:17:08 (Jan) in the past two months at the Half. Going to be doing the Full in a couple of weeks. I feel like my training has gone down a bit, the last legit long run I had was only 19 miles and that was about three weeks ago.
I know that the pace calculators predict a ~2:42 Marathon for me based off of those times, but I don't think I am properly trained for that right now. What's a more realistic marathon pace that I should be looking for in my first Marathon?
... My long runs previous have been around 15-18 miles at near 6:20 pace. I feel like I've been able to handle that pace pretty well and have done it on multiple weeks in a row during Nov and December. Now since January I've hit a lull and haven't got a good long run like those in a while. At the time I was thinking that I could maintain a ~6:20 Marathon pace, but now I am doubting.
The course is the Austin Marathon, which isn't pancake flat. What would be a good pace to start? I'm already predicting some real real difficulty at mile 20 because my mileage isn't as up as it should be, but just wondering what type of pace that my times look like I should shoot for.