who will turn in the next great/shocking american male distance performance?

Two words: Dean-o.

wonderin' wrote:

We all remember Alan Webb's high school 3:53 mile, his 3:46 AR, Ryan Hall's 59:43 AR Half-Marathon, his 2:06 marathon, Ritz's 12:56 AR 5k, Chris Solinsky's 12:59 AR 10k, can probably throw Lagat's 12:52 in there too.

Who will have the next shocking breakout race or American distance record and in what event (from 1500-Marathon)?

My guesses: either Webb as he gets back into form this year could start PRing and go after the 1500 record (of course its possible Wheating could improve on his great 1500 race last year too and also go after the record). People could be aiming for Lagat's 5k record, solinsky? A Rupp sub-27 10k perhaps? Or is there someone else kinda on that cusp but not one of the huge names that you think will jump to the top in some event?

I think after the above-mentioned 12:59 10k, nothing will ever shock me again.

-Cocaine is a helluva drug!

So I'm a sucker for improbable. I'm going to say Ritz in the marathon...

wonderin' wrote:

We all remember Alan Webb's high school 3:53 mile, his 3:46 AR, Ryan Hall's 59:43 AR Half-Marathon, his 2:06 marathon, Ritz's 12:56 AR 5k, Chris Solinsky's 12:59 AR 10k, can probably throw Lagat's 12:52 in there too.

Who will have the next shocking breakout race or American distance record and in what event (from 1500-Marathon)?

My guesses: either Webb as he gets back into form this year could start PRing and go after the 1500 record (of course its possible Wheating could improve on his great 1500 race last year too and also go after the record). People could be aiming for Lagat's 5k record, solinsky? A Rupp sub-27 10k perhaps? Or is there someone else kinda on that cusp but not one of the huge names that you think will jump to the top in some event?

You can't include Lagats run in there, that was pretty much expected and a long time coming actually.

I'd hope we couldn't predict the next amazing feat, that's what makes the efforts so special. They come out of nowhere. I would include Meb winning NY in your list.

German Fernandez hammers from the gun to win the NCAA 1500 in 3:27.

I think there is a good possibility that it will be George W. Bush. There is absolutely nothing this fine, fine American hero cannot do!

Well it won't be anything mentioned in this thread. If we talk about it or predict it, then it can't be shocking.

can we count Chelanga? He's set up for a major breakthrough and I hope becomes an American. He'll probably run 26:40 by the time he's through.

Rupp and Wheating are still improving, so they look good. Wheating at the WC meet will be fascinating.

Flanagan seems to be peaking in a good way and looks very racy - she and Huddle will duel for the 5k and 10 ARs this summer.

Darkhorse is Huddle - she came on fast at end of last year and no doubt wants to jump into Shalane/Kara levels of fame and reputation.

Wariner 1:41.3 800m.

` wrote:

Wariner 1:41.3 800m.

How would this be shocking? He runs 43.4, 50.6 would be like jogging for him.

adddd wrote:

Well it won't be anything mentioned in this thread. If we talk about it or predict it, then it can't be shocking.

Didn't Flagpole, or someone talk about Ritz breaking 13 long before it happened? I still found it pretty shocking when it actually happened.

What's Robby Andrews up to? He smoked Wheating a few times last year (yes I know Wheating won when it counted). I don't know if he's at the level that he could do anything "shocking". But the kid definitely has a lot of talent.

Shalane will will win a major marathon in the next 2 years. before that? I honestly see Rupp getting down to brass tacks and doing something shocking.

UsedToBeKnowItAII wrote:

Didn't Flagpole, or someone talk about Ritz breaking 13 long before it happened? I still found it pretty shocking when it actually happened.

Damn straight I called it LONG before he did it brother! When he ran 13:27 as a college freshman, I KNEW then that he would one day hold the AR in the 5,000. I could not have been less shocked. It was simply a matter of time for him.

Meb will win NYC again in 2011 and then the trials 69 days later . I said it first.

Ordered from most likely to least:

Rupp

Wheating

Fernandez

Flagpole wrote:

Damn straight I called it LONG before he did it brother! When he ran 13:27 as a college freshman, I KNEW then that he would one day hold the AR in the 5,000. I could not have been less shocked. It was simply a matter of time for him.

You are without a doubt the biggest tool to ever come across this site. I know for a fact you search your name on the search function everyday just to see when someone mentions you and then you can get on that thread and respond. 100% fact, don't even deny it.

Flagpole wrote:

UsedToBeKnowItAII wrote:

Didn't Flagpole, or someone talk about Ritz breaking 13 long before it happened? I still found it pretty shocking when it actually happened.

Damn straight I called it LONG before he did it brother! When he ran 13:27 as a college freshman, I KNEW then that he would one day hold the AR in the 5,000. I could not have been less shocked. It was simply a matter of time for him.

So what about Fernandez and Derrick? Didn't they run right around there as college freshman? So are they both going sub-13 and breaking the AR?

Unholy Cumulus wrote:

Ordered from most likely to least:

Rupp

Wheating

Fernandez

I would say Fernandez is most likely to turn in a shocking performance because of how up and down he is. It is going to take something damn special from either Wheating or Rupp because both of those guys have been popping out good performances pretty consistently. Rupp could run sub 13 and it wouldn't shock me in the least, same for Wheating going sub 3:30.

Fernandez, who knows with that kid. He can go 4:16 one weekend then could drop a 7:39 3k or something truly shocking like that the next. He has that kind of talent but is so up and down which makes his great runs usually pretty jaw dropping.

Fernandez is a lot more consistent then people give him credit for. The injuries/weird incidents (shoe falling off, track official getting in the way) are just bad luck. The injuries and anemia(?) problems are the coaches fault - really.

You put him on the track with solid training and he'll produce results. He has yet to prove otherwise.

That is why I am excited for this guy once he goes to the pros. He can be the first non-african under 12:50 for 5k.