Her endurance isn't that good. 14.30 does not equal 29.45!! Not for her anyway, and not yet. Other than Wang Junxia (8.06 has got to be worth 14.10, even with drugs) and her 29.31, only 2 others are under 30, and the WR for 5000m is 14.11. Shalane is NOT Paula Radcliffe is terms of endurance. She beat a 14.44 runner (Huddle) and a 14.54 runner (Koll), not 14.20 runners.
Can we declare a moratorium on talking about the imminent American citizenship of U.S.-based Kenyan runners? It's not that easy to get - ask Sam Chelanga. People have been talking about Boaz Cheboiywo getting citizenship for over five years now, and it hasn't happened. Let's see some hard evidence that Sally Kipyego is well on the way toward citizenship before we consider the ramifications for U.S. records and championship squads.
OutOfSpace wrote:
Shalane's victory margin over 5000m AR Molly Huddle was so huge and impressive that I think Shalane is in the best shape of her life. After such a performance she could very well place top 3 at this years World Cross and later this year 14:30 and 29:45.
I thought that she looked terrific today but was suprised to learn that she was 20 seconds faster on the same course in 2008.
great performance today against a top field, but 25:47 8k (32:13 10k) doesn't compare to her AR 10k (30:22?), even if there were hills here. she won't be peaking until August.
Other than Wang Junxia, there are four women that have run sub 30. However I agree with most of the rest of your post. I don't expect to see Shalane run faster than Melkamu, Dibaba, Abeylegesse and Defar. Shalane ran 30:22 in a race where most of the top 10 ran their best ever times. The likelihood of finding herself in a similar race again is slim. The likelihood of her running sub 30:22 (let alone 29:45) at Daegu or anywhere else in 2011 is slim to non existent.
In the 5k there are more chances to run fast and if we look at Kim Smith who ran 14:39 indoors while lapping other runners, then we would have to assume that in ideal conditions, Kim could run 14:38 or better outdoors. Shalane could do the same, so 14:35 to 14:40 if she gets in the right race on the right day.