Lukas Verzbicas Talks To LetsRun.com

What are the odds he runs a sub 4?

I'd say 40/60? (N/Y)

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As an employee of LetsRun.com, one of the great joys of the morning is checking the LetsRun.com email inbox, as one never knows what they'll find.

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No way he touches 4:00.

I think he's going to do it. 90+% if the pacing is spot on.

Remember when Webb lined up against everyone at Pre and he ran 3:53 and everyone went crazy? Im calling something similar - not a 3:53 but something special. The year before Webb went crazy in HS he had run 4:03. Verzbikas has run 4:04.

I think Lukas will do it as he's in a pro race where nearly everyone will do it. He's a phenom and there's no way he gets last. So if the pacing is right, we'll see something amazing (I sure hope the pacing is 2:58 for 1209 otherwise it will be too bunched).

That being said, if you are a doubter, I will admit the following things give me pause.

a) He's had zero prep races and hasn't even been doing track workouts (we should have asked him how does he do 200s outdoors in the cold?) so it's crazy to think he'll do it off of that. I mean college studs have trouble breaking 4:00 with no prep races.

b) Ryan hall was a phenom who ran near 4:00 in HS but we found out years later he was not a miler at all and still hasn't ever broken 4:00 or its equivalent.

The being said, what he really reminds me of is German Fernandez. He was viewed as a distance guy in HS. Anyone remember his freshman year at Ok State when he busted out a 3:56.50 in his first race on Jan 24th two years ago?

Well he was just over 18 at the time (people don't realize how young Fernandez is - still barely 20). Well Lukas is basically that age. So if Fernandez did it with 3 seconds to spare, Lukas will do it.

Typing that made me realize how special German is on the track when he's healthy.

He says he took off a few weeks after footlocker. He has only been doing some 50 mile weeks. Then he said he just dropped a 17 mile run at 6:00 a mile. He must be one serious natural or...AH WHO CARES I HOPE HE HAS A GREAT RUN. I'LL SAY 4:03.

Either he's in great shape and runs 3:58/3:57, or he dies from the pace/couldn't get in enough speedwork and runs in the 4:08-4:10 range.

I'm leaning towards him breaking 4.

4:01.17, but outkicks Webb for 4th place.

Yeah...who can way Oregon has great coaching when they are getting a natural talent like this. Doesn't make sense.

I think it will be very very difficult seeing as how he hasn't raced. If we had any indication of a real "speed" effort - low key all comers meet, some sort of time trial, anything - that was 3k or less I'd say he's ready to roll.

If you've watched this guy run his races you know he's a natural front runner. I wonder how comfortable (or not) he's going to be at the back.

The poll at the bottom of the interview doesn't work (for me at least). Curious to see the results of it.

"America's greatest high school phenom since the Webb-Hall-Ritz era"

German Fernandez?

watched Verzbicas run at XC state this fall

can u say natural runner?!

he will break 4 no doubt

1:17pm EST

LRC Poll results for Lukas breaking 4:

62.4% No after my vote of yes.

i think lukas will break 4 outdoors, but there's no way he's breaking it tomorrow. if he could match his 4:04 PR that would be very good! and thats about what i think he'll run, somewhere around 4:03-05. also cuz sounds like his training hasn't been that good due to the snow storms, so running that would be very impressive.

also rojo, your statement about webb running 4:03 junior year and lukas running 4:04 so he should have a good chance at sub 4 tomorrow doesn't make sense to me. i was on that south lakes team, and trust me, alan was definitely capable of running faster his junior year. he got a little injured at the end of the year so his season got shut down a few weeks early. he ran 3:59 dmr anchor at penn that year. there wasn't a person on the team junior year who didn't think he was capable of running 3:59-4:01 that year. and even given that, his 3:59 indoors was a shock! so i very much doubt lukas has any real chance at sub 4 tomorrow. but i could totally see him going like 3:57-8 outdoors.

rojo wrote:

b) Ryan hall was a phenom who ran near 4:00 in HS but we found out years later he was not a miler at all and still hasn't ever broken 4:00 or its equivalent.

he ran 3:42.70 in 2001. you don't consider that a sub 4 equivalent?

eb white wrote:

rojo wrote:

b) Ryan hall was a phenom who ran near 4:00 in HS but we found out years later he was not a miler at all and still hasn't ever broken 4:00 or its equivalent.

he ran 3:42.70 in 2001. you don't consider that a sub 4 equivalent?

222.7 * 1.08 = 240.516

So no.

i trust this site over you:

http://www.mcmillanrunning.com/mcmillanrunningcalculator.htm

Seriously now? This is a 200m track this aint no Washington 300m indoor track. 14 runners in the race. Winning time? 3:55ish maybe faster? Be hard to squeeze 13 more runners in 5 second span on a small track. This hyping bullshit is disgusting.