Hi all...21yr old male training for the Baltimore marathon in mid-October. I've been a "recreational" runner up until the beginning of January (only running maybe 25 or 30mpw) but now I've bumped it up to around 50mpw. I'm loosely following the "Lydiard Plan" with a big base period now (building up as many miles as possible, with one long run per week (will switch to two in a month or so) and one faster run (sort of a fartlek/hour long tempo run at maybe 30 seconds off marathon goal pace). I'm doing all these runs at about an 8:00/mile pace which is in the 70-80% max HR range and feels "easy" (maybe a 4 out of 10 effort-wise). My long run so far is 15.
Does it seem reasonable that I'll be able to break 3:00 for the marathon if I stay consistent with this training? I hope to max out in another two months at 90-100mpw or so, then start doing some anaerobic / higher intensity aerobic stuff, some trackwork with longer repeats (800s, 1k, 3k) near my goal pace.
Finally, I'm 5' 10" and 145, but I'm going to drop 7 or 8 pounds over the next few months because I know that helps as well.
Any suggestions? By the way, I know that a lot of people say that a sub-3 just barely differentiates a runner from a "jogger," but I'm not trying to qualify for the Olympics here, just set a PR. If you can help me, I really appreciate it.