Can I make sub-3?

What are some of your other race times? How long have you been running? It would help to know something about your background so we know how far you have to go to get to your goal.

In high school my 5k PR was a 17:20. I took about a 2 year break, and have been running for about a year now (up until January) but, like I said, not seriously (really just jogging...and only doing maybe 20 mpw so just 3 or 4 mile runs).

More recently...in the past year I ran a 5:15 mile and a 41:00 10k.

Sounds like a reasonable goal based on only a little bit of information.

My only feedback is that October is a long way away and it may be hard to motivate adn stay focused that long without any intermediate goals. I personally would try to pick out a 10k or half marathon or something sometime in April or May. You don't even have to train specifically for it or peak for it, it will still provide some motivation and some feedback on current fitness.

Oh, re-read and a bit more feedback. That is a very, very large jump in mileage. Be careful or you will end up injured. Don't set and strive for artificial mileage goals.

Not impossible, but a big stretch. It will largely depend on how well you develop your energy stores. You will probably get back to your high school fitness in a few months. A 17:20 5k is plenty fit to be able to run under 3:00. The real question will be whether you can make it through the last six miles without bonking. Unfortunately, you won't know until you do it.

Smart thing would be to back off your first attempt, go with a doable training schedule (60-70 mpw) and focus on finishing strong. Then, up the mileage and go for the sub 3 in a spring marathon.

Right now, if I were a betting man, I would bet that you either don't make it to race day because you get hurt trying to do too much mileage or bonk hard pushing the pace beyond what you are ready to do the first time out.

You are very young. Take it easy the first time and then go for it. If you set yourself up for a positive experience the first time out, that may carry forward to future races. In a few years, you could be twenty to thirty minutes under 3 or could still be frustrated by bonking during sub 3 attempts.

BQ? wrote:

More recently...in the past year I ran a 5:15 mile and a 41:00 10k.

This is telling. You're doing the right thing bumping your mileage up. The 10k is weak, you need endurance. It's a good idea to bump up that 2nd long run.

If I remember correctly Lydiard had a plan that involved two runs 1 1/2 hours + and one 2+ hours.

A 3 hour marathon is about a 6:50 pace. You are running 8 minute pace. This seems too slow if you expect to run a 3 hour marathon.

Lydiard is not about long, slow running. It mixes different paces even during the build up phase (1/4, 1/2 effort, 3/4 effort, etc). The "marathon" phase should be aerobic, but you should be running close to the anerobic threshold 2-3 times a week.

These efforts should actually be pretty fast - close to and maybe even faster than what you can run a marathon in. Since, really, your marathon pace should aerobic most of the way.

If you plan to run 26.2 miles at a 6:50 pace, then 15 miles at a 7:00-7:20 pace should feel relaxed. Maybe not easy, but certainly not strained. You ought to finish "pleasantly tired" as Lydiard would say.

You may be running slow because you think that is Lydiard. It is not. Maybe you are running slowly because that is the effort that feels right. In either case 3 hours is not realistic.

Now you should not set a goal of 3 hours and adjust your training pace to that. Your pace should be whatever you can do that is expected effort for that day. If these happen to be close to your goal of 3 hours, then you have a chance. If all you can do is 8:00 pace to remain "pleasantly tired" when you finish, then 3 hours is probably not realistic.

If you force yourself to run a pace which is too fast, you will get slower rather than faster. Moderate efforts with rest days of easy efforts is the key. That said, if you are getting fitter and fitter, your pace should be getting faster and faster. Since what was once a little too fast, should eventually be about right.

Yes, you can.

Just practice increasing your stride length. For each 3% increase in stride length you will get a 1% increase in turnover rate, or roughly a 4% gain in overall speed.

You can do this over and over. It just takes practice and training. There are no limits.

No, give it up.

BQ,

My training program, can make you a 2:55 runner easy. What is your e-mail, me could talk if you like.

This is just plain W-R-O-N-G. Let the kid build his aerobic base first. He should be running 8 mpm+ pace right now, even for 20 miles because that is the shape he is in.

And when I broke 3 hours for the first time was routinely running my 20 miles around 7:40/mile. My fastest non-MP long run ever is 7:25/mile. That was right before a 2:52.

Now I'm not a Mr. McSpeedster but the biggest error most people make in the 2:55-and-over range is running every damn run too fast....

Another wrote:

Now I'm not a Mr. McSpeedster but the biggest error most people make in the 2:55-and-over range is running every damn run too fast....

Totally agree. When I ran sub2:40 I was running my long runs with a guy who ended up running 3:05. Those long runs were around 7:40-8min pace.

BQ? wrote:

More recently...in the past year I ran a 5:15 mile and a 41:00 10k.

You need to get your 10km time down

Keep up the training and get plenty of races in

we're very similar though i was faster at the shorter distances (high 15s 5K in high school) and you're 13 years younger than me. last year I thought i would be sub 3 on 50 mpw but disappointingly did a 3:13. 20m long runs felt easy at 7:20 pace but those last 6 miles are a toughie. i would say get the big mileage as well as tempo runs every week but don't increase your mileage more than 5 miles each week. good luck.

NJ Possible wrote:

we're very similar though i was faster at the shorter distances (high 15s 5K in high school) and you're 13 years younger than me. last year I thought i would be sub 3 on 50 mpw but disappointingly did a 3:13. 20m long runs felt easy at 7:20 pace but those last 6 miles are a toughie. i would say get the big mileage as well as tempo runs every week but don't increase your mileage more than 5 miles each week. good luck.

Hey how do your training look today?

sub240 wrote:

Another wrote:

Now I'm not a Mr. McSpeedster but the biggest error most people make in the 2:55-and-over range is running every damn run too fast....

Totally agree. When I ran sub2:40 I was running my long runs with a guy who ended up running 3:05. Those long runs were around 7:40-8min pace.

Absolutely right. I broke 3 with very little speed. Some progression runs when I felt good, and maxed out at 55 miles in a week. I made it to race day though which is the key. I have been in 2:48 race shape, and not made it to race day twice. Keep those long runs SLOW. 15 miles long run at 7:00-7:20 is absurd. You will get hurt doing that. Be conservative upping mileage or intensity, and do not be afraid to back off every 3-4 weeks or so. Make it to race day! You might have a rough first marathon, you might smoke it. Better to find out being healthy rather than whining about what kind of shape you were in when you got hurt (like me...).

CoachOP wrote:

BQ,

My training program, can make you a 2:55 runner easy. What is your e-mail, me could talk if you like.

I train Marathoners also.

And me can talk also!

This is the general "recent" performance level necessary to break 3 hours. In this example 2:58 and change is the goal.

Performance level: mile: 5:19

5K: 18:20

8K: 30:14

10K: 38:21

marathon: 2:58:24

Either you can do it or you can't.