Do you think he also could get this one as a 800m star? Otherwise I would go for it...or at least try to
Do you think he also could get this one as a 800m star? Otherwise I would go for it...or at least try to
There's no doubt that he could have that record. With how tall, relaxed and smooth he looked in his WR 800 runs, tghere's no doubt in my mind that he couldn't continue it for another 200m.
Westeuropean Hope wrote:
Do you think he also could get this one as a 800m star? Otherwise I would go for it...or at least try to
I doubt it! The 1k is a funny and difficult distance. An extra 200m doesn't seem far, but look at those who've tried and failed:- Cram, Morceli, Kaki.
It would seem Rudisha is a 400/800 type, and unless he's capable of running 1500 in 3:32/3:33, which I doubt at present, then I don't think he'll break it.
When Coe ran 2:12, he was a 1:41 800 guy with sub 3:30 capability at 1500m. Having said that, he broke the WR off just 1 attempt and that was 4 days after a draining 3:31 solo run with a 52.4 first lap. He could probably have run 2:11.0 - 2:11.5 with a few concerted efforts that year. With this in mind, if Rudisha were to focus on the 1000m for part of the summer (which I doubt will be in his plans being World Champs year), then he could get close to 2:12.
I'm doubtful. Don't forget what a bad@ss Noah Ngeny was. Might have become history's greatest miler if it hadn't been for that car accident. His 800 PR was 1:44.49 in case you were wondering.
Wise Guy wrote:
I'm doubtful. Don't forget what a bad@ss Noah Ngeny was. Might have become history's greatest miler if it hadn't been for that car accident. His 800 PR was 1:44.49 in case you were wondering.
No, even without the car accident I doubt he'd have continued for very long. You see it all the time with Kenyans who peak at young ages- they never stay consistent.
Noah made his worth by sitting in El Guerrouj's shadow for much of his racing.
GUH wrote:
Wise Guy wrote:I'm doubtful. Don't forget what a bad@ss Noah Ngeny was. Might have become history's greatest miler if it hadn't been for that car accident. His 800 PR was 1:44.49 in case you were wondering.
No, even without the car accident I doubt he'd have continued for very long. You see it all the time with Kenyans who peak at young ages- they never stay consistent.
Noah made his worth by sitting in El Guerrouj's shadow for much of his racing.
Maybe he wouldn't have been, but he was still quite a beast at the time and it is a tough world record. 7:20 isn't any less formidable because Daniel Komen vanished into relative obscurity shortly thereafter.
Kipketer had a much smoother stride than Rudisha. Rudisha runs like a tall thin horse....amazing to watch. It looks like he leaps around the track. I was on the rail watching him run his 1:41.5 in Heusden Belgium last year.
I remember watching Kipketer do a workout of 3x1000 in 2:30 each in St. Moritz in 2004. He looked like he was jogging!
Wise Guy wrote:I'm doubtful. Don't forget what a bad@ss Noah Ngeny was. Might have become history's greatest miler if it hadn't been for that car accident. His 800 PR was 1:44.49 in case you were wondering.
noah actually went thru 800 in 1'44.62, so that actual 1'44.49pb is nonsensical
more realistically, he was in mid/high 1'42 shape that day
Rudisha is a 400 meter guy who moved up. More of a sprinter than a distance guy. 1000 is unlikely. 600 would be a better shot, although that one is also tough.
deanouk wrote:I doubt it! The 1k is a funny and difficult distance. An extra 200m doesn't seem far, but look at those who've tried and failed:- Cram, Morceli, Kaki
rudy is at least 1.2s faster than any of those over 800, actual 1.2s over kaki, probably 1.5 - 1.75s faster than cram & probably 2 - 2.5s faster than morceli
at some stage, if your 800 time is fast enough, it will give you enough leeway to cover the extra 200m, even if you are not a reasonable 1500 guy ( in fact his over-distance race potential only really needs to be just over 1k not actual 1500 to run to full 1k potential, call it 1100 or 1200m - see cruz who ran 1'41 but only 2'14 - his over-distance may not have been more than ?850 - 900m let alone 1100 - 1200 )
don't forget, 2'11.9 is a fixed time
if a guy goes 1'41.0 or 1'40.5 or 1'40.0, eventually there will be an 800 time so fast that despite no 1500 background it will be enough to get 2'11.9 despite no great over-distance background
1500 background for a 2'11.90 with quicker 800s :
1'41.00 ->3'33.3
1'40.75 ->3'34.1
1'40.50 ->3'35.0
1'40.25 ->3'35.8
1'40.00 ->3'36.7
the quicker the 800, the more paltry the theoretical 1500 background required to run 2'11.90
not specific to rudy, but if we one day see a 1'40.0 guy who may actually be a 400/800 like rudy, it's hard to believe they woudn't be able to go at least 3'36 & get it
i actually find it hard to believe rudy coudn't run a 3'34/3'35 currently, so he woudn't be far off if he was interested :
1'41.0 with
3'35 ->2'12.4
3'34 ->2'12.1
3'33 ->2'11.9[/b
GUH wrote:
No, even without the car accident I doubt he'd have continued for very long. You see it all the time with Kenyans who peak at young ages- they never stay consistent.
Yeah, you're right. Augustine Choge basically fell apart after he was young.
(Won World Youths in 2003, World Juniors in 2004, World Junior Cross in 2005...PRs in 800 and 1500 in 2009. )
Also, Wanjiru has been horribly inconsistent.
(13:12 at 17 in 2004, half marathon WR twice in 2007, Oly gold 2008, London win 2009, Chicago win 2010.)
Maybe you mean to see "You see it all the time with Americans who peak at young ages- they never stay consistent." I think this statement would far more accurately represent Webb, for example.
He probably could if he trained for it, which he is not doing
He's not doing the 1500m so he's not going to train for the 1,000 either just to run it once or twice.
I think his target will be sub 1:41, as he is so close and he has not even thought about the 1,000
ukathleticscoach wrote:
I think his target will be sub 1:41
So basically you're saying he is targeting a PR.
Thanks for your insight.
ventolin^3 wrote:
1500 background for a 2'11.90 with quicker 800s :
1'41.00 ->3'33.3
1'40.75 ->3'34.1
1'40.50 ->3'35.0
1'40.25 ->3'35.8
1'40.00 ->3'36.7
the quicker the 800, the more paltry the theoretical 1500 background required to run 2'11.90
not specific to rudy, but if we one day see a 1'40.0 guy who may actually be a 400/800 like rudy, it's hard to believe they woudn't be able to go at least 3'36 & get it
i actually find it hard to believe rudy coudn't run a 3'34/3'35 currently, so he woudn't be far off if he was interested :
1'41.0 with
3'35 ->2'12.4
3'34 ->2'12.1
3'33 ->2'11.9[/b
Yes, I agree with practically all you've said on this, and the numbers look right. Even so, I think 3:33 is no mean order. That sort of time/capability would put him into top 12 for the year. As I have no idea what endurance stuff he is capable of in training I wouldn't know if he can run this at present. I do agree though with what you said about not needing much 1500 capability if he gets down to low 1:40.
the smartest letsrunner wrote:
GUH wrote:No, even without the car accident I doubt he'd have continued for very long. You see it all the time with Kenyans who peak at young ages- they never stay consistent.
Yeah, you're right. Augustine Choge basically fell apart after he was young.
(Won World Youths in 2003, World Juniors in 2004, World Junior Cross in 2005...PRs in 800 and 1500 in 2009. )
Also, Wanjiru has been horribly inconsistent.
(13:12 at 17 in 2004, half marathon WR twice in 2007, Oly gold 2008, London win 2009, Chicago win 2010.)
Maybe you mean to see "You see it all the time with Americans who peak at young ages- they never stay consistent." I think this statement would far more accurately represent Webb, for example.
Agustine finished in what place that year in Berlin? How about in the indoor championships in 2010? And how about Asbel Kiprop or Pamela Jelimo?
As for Wanjiru- he runs good marathons, but underperforms in all his shorter races (i.e. a 9th place in Lisbon before his London victory). He keeps promising a world record marathon (even once a sub-2 hour), but I'm extremely skeptical about him repeating something like his Olympic gold again; now he has domestic problems, which will hamper him even more. He's still a great athlete though, as are all of the mentioned.
ventolin^3 wrote:
Wise Guy wrote:I'm doubtful. Don't forget what a bad@ss Noah Ngeny was. Might have become history's greatest miler if it hadn't been for that car accident. His 800 PR was 1:44.49 in case you were wondering.noah actually went thru 800 in 1'44.62, so that actual 1'44.49pb is nonsensical
more realistically, he was in mid/high 1'42 shape that day
I know he probably could have gone faster (and split faster in the 1000 world record) - that's just the PR that the IAAF has for him.