Coud a fit Silas Kiplagat break the 1500m WR?

fff wrote:

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No! You don't go from 3:29 to 3:25 in one season. 3:39 to 3:35, yes, 3:35 to 3:31, possibly. If he does, there must be some new gear in use.

It seems very strange to me to come out and say what he's said with such confidence. Even if you believe it, it's not something you say when you're more than 3 seconds off at present. To aspire one day to approach and perhaps beat EL G's times (which IMO were almost too good to be true in itself) is one thing, but to claim what he has is hard to fathom.

I don't know if he is going for the mile record or just the 1500 but either would be very, very hard to do considering he was 3:29 last year. On the other hand, he probably will improve at least a little this year so who knows. But as it stands he is over 3 seconds off the 1500. And El G went through the 1500 in 3:28.xx en route to the mile world record...that blows my mind.

^Noah Ngeny went 3:28 through 1500m also during that mile WR.

Noah Ngeny was sitting on El G for the whole race, thats how he managed to pull that time. If Silas wants that record he is going to have to prove that he can go from the gun.

He should do the mile at the Prefontaine Classic and the US should invite him, Kiprop, Augustine Choge, and Mekonnen. They could bill the meet as a World Record Attempt on the Mile, have a pacesetter go through 1000m at WR pace, then Choge will take the lead like he always does and Kiprop or Kiplagat will outkick him and get the record. Webb and Wheating should also do it so they will be pulled along to a fast time but if Kiplagat were to go for the Outdoor Mile record, what better place than that meet.

The Waterboy wrote:

He should do the mile at the Prefontaine Classic and the US should invite him, Kiprop, Augustine Choge, and Mekonnen. They could bill the meet as a World Record Attempt on the Mile, have a pacesetter go through 1000m at WR pace, then Choge will take the lead like he always does and Kiprop or Kiplagat will outkick him and get the record. Webb and Wheating should also do it so they will be pulled along to a fast time but if Kiplagat were to go for the Outdoor Mile record, what better place than that meet.

Wheating and Webb are both faster than kiprop over 1500, likewise kiplagat is only a hare faster than the two americans over 1500 and slower than webb over a mile, not sure about wheating. If you are going to mention their names, they should not be after thoughts in your imaginary race.

I have to disagree. With what we have seen with most Kenyans peaking at such young ages and then declining/ underperforming for the rest of their careers, Kiplagat seems to be following this pattern. Only those who can peak in their mid-twenties (23-25 being the best) can have very successful, long lasting careers. Peaking later is also okay, but Hicham el Guerrouj ran his WRs at 23-24, as have many other great milers like Steve Cram, Sebastian Coe and Nourredine Morceli.

And here we get into the classic time vs quality of races debate...Yes Wheating has the faster PB, but Kiprop could easily have that PB if he wanted. He just focused on winning as many diamond league races as possible, whereas Wheating just hopped on the circuit at the very end following a season of not that hard efforts of racing. So yea he was able to bust a few quick times because it was only a few races he did, while Kiprop had a huge racing season. It is the same logic used with people saying Sammy Wanjiru ran the greatest marathon of all time, despite not having a PB as fast as Haile's. But yes, Kiprop if he peaked for it is in the running for a WR

being able to close hard in a 3:32/3:34 style race is not the same as being able to hold 3:26 pace for the whole thing, needless to say.