Professor emeritus at the University of Chicago says US economy will grow 5% this year, gold to sub $900

So then why does Obama send Nazi troops to Iraq & Afghanistan and pay for Nazi troops and civilians to occupy Palestine ?

emeritus = old and senile old prof.

I prediect that Aliber's predictions will be wrong.

I went to Univ. of chicago back in the day and did not recall this name. Granted, I have not kept up with the econ profession in recent years, but if he was a player who worked 'alongside Milton Friedman' I think I would have remembered the name.

What does Gary Becker have to say?

For AQSA.

Rational Economics wrote:

I prediect that Aliber's predictions will be wrong.

I want some of what ever that prof is smoking.

That dildo is too late. The recovery was planned by Obama in 2009 when he took office. Alber is a leech trying to get in on Obama's successes. What a bozo that Albert is.

The first thing I thought of when I read the title is, "I bet this guy is promoting a book". And sure enough:

"So as the U.S. economy theoretically prepares for its next big boom, Aliber has just published a new book, 'Your Money and Your Life: A Lifetime Approach to Money Management.'"

His predictions are all predicated on China collapsing. I'm not sure why he thinks that's going to happen.

I'm sure Alber owns a chain of Payday Check Cashing joints with the Chicago Mafia.

I love it when economists get to be publicly wrong with such exact predictions like this. I hope this thread gets revived when he is.

I don't expect 14k this year (neither my income, nor the dow) and a disaster in china's economy would be bad for our economy, but other than that what he says makes a lot of sense, and almost all of the economic news suggests precisely this, the economy was just at 3.2 pct growth and growth has been picking up, businesses are sitting on heaps of cash and consumer spending is up considerably.

Ho Hum wrote:

The first thing I thought of when I read the title is, "I bet this guy is promoting a book". And sure enough:

"So as the U.S. economy theoretically prepares for its next big boom, Aliber has just published a new book, 'Your Money and Your Life: A Lifetime Approach to Money Management.'"

His predictions are all predicated on China collapsing. I'm not sure why he thinks that's going to happen.

haha good call. And he is incredibly clever to take the line of 'Republicans don't need a candidate, Obama is the Repub candidate' tack. Media will swallow that hook, line, sinker, and pole.

He certainly isn't the only one betting against China:

http://www.economist.com/node/17966936?story_id=17966936

There is a reasonable path to this actually happening, believe it or not. The economist has done other pieces on how a Chinese collapse would not damage the US very much.

You can access the mainstream Goldman-Sachs forecast here:

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/global-economic-outlook/2011-economic-outlook/right-column/1043_GEW_without_trades.pdf

I think the main issue I have with the Professor's forecast is the timing. GS sees a move to 4% GDP growth by 2012, not 2011. Similarly, they see no tightening in the US and Japan through 2011 and 2012, due to excess supply. This would have significant effect on the price of gold that would be very different than the professor projects. A sharp rise in GDP would cause the FED to raise rates sooner, thus capping what I expect will be a move to the vicinity of new highs in the market.

I think such a sharp change in the economic trajectory when the economy is barely creating enough jobs to accomodate new entrants would be dangerous for an investor to expect.

towhee wrote:

[quote]Ho Hum wrote:

haha good call. And he is incredibly clever to take the line of 'Republicans don't need a candidate, Obama is the Repub candidate' tack. Media will swallow that hook, line, sinker, and pole.

William Buckley made a similar joke in 1956 (that both parties should nominate Eisenhower). Buckley, however, was suggesting that there was no real difference between the politics of either major party, whereas I think this guy is suggesting that nominating a candidate would be a useless exercise since Obama will (according to him) be very popular in 2012.

If the economy grows at 5% for 2 years and unemployment dips bellow 6%, what Republican would even want to run? Obama would appear to the American people to have pulled off an economic miracle.

If the Chinese economy collapses, then a lot of manufacturing would have to move back to the United States and it would discourage future investment in emerging markets. The situation is fairly similar to the Japanese asset bubble

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

. I am weary Aliber's prediction because China knows not to make the same mistakes as Japan, although it may be too late. I would rather it not come true for several reasons, but I will not get into that.

Just an aside, I remember reading that at one point, the value of all the homes in Tokyo were worth more than the entire net worth of the United States. I doubt China is that overvalued.

Bozo the Clown wrote:

That dildo is too late. The recovery was planned by Obama in 2009 when he took office. Alber is a leech trying to get in on Obama's successes. What a bozo that Albert is.

Is this like saying Bush was planning to invade Iraq before being elected? Obama had some sinister plan to fix the economy in order to help big corporations earn huge profits?