Either this was a big goof by the US state department or the top two runners' agents f-ed up big time. Imagine if this happened to Wanjiru or Cheruyiot at Boston or Chicago.
Conditions will be wet and warm. I don't think Gotcher will go sub 2:10 for a win, even without the top two guys.
He has his own rabbit for the first half. How much assistance does the guy need?
The first half at Houston is EASY...Also who does he have? The half marathon finish isn't on the marathon course.
Madman Fagan.
Personally I feel like being in or at the lead in the second half of a race will be motivation enough to off set the lack of pacers.
A pacer to go through in 64 minutes and continue through at least 25k. That means that he has to run alone for about 10 miles. Sounds perfect to me.
assless chaps wrote:
A pacer to go through in 64 minutes and continue through at least 25k. That means that he has to run alone for about 10 miles. Sounds perfect to me.
so if no africans
brett gotcher
martin faga
nick arciniega????
i had heard arciniega was running, but the recent press releases have not mentioned him, so he may have pulled out.
for the women
belainesh gebre
she lives and trains in the USA and is seeking citizenship, so she will be there.
what does her seeking citizenship have to do with her running Houston? btw/ she is a likely top-3 finisher
Gotcher is likely to break 2:12, which should be good enough for the win without the first-rate competition.
Mamitu Daska is a late addition to the women. She tried to go sub 2:20 at Chicago and crashed and burned. She won Dubai in 2010. She would be the no. 1 seed but for the late entry. I suspect she will go out alone and try to time trial for the course record for extra $. The rest of the field will race for 2nd place. Gebre will definitely be in the mix, but will not beat Daska.
There are a few other E. Africans in the mens side. Adelo from Ethiopia is the 5th seed. I would imagine that with the top 2 seeds out, some of the rabbits will try to go all the way and win. I am sure they were going to try to get Gelana and Keny to break the course record. The rabbits are probably 2:10 guys anyway. I doubt Fagan or Gotcher will go sub 2:10 on a wet and warm race day. But it would be very cool if they did.
Arciniaga will rabbit through the halfway in 64 minutes. Fagan will fall off and DNF and Gotcher will slip back before 25k. Arciniaga will stay in the race and win in 2:12:41
I was pretty damn close.
Brooks screwed themselves wrote:
I was pretty damn close.
Wow, you pretty much nailed it. Well done, sir.
Very good prediction ha ha. Accept Archinga got 2nd instead of 1st but still very very nice.
I predicted this for several reasons.
1. I am not a believer in the McMillan system.
2. Gotcher never learned the lessons of the marathon but had the rookie breakthrough which is usually followed by a disappointment.
3. Arciniaga did not have the pressure of having to finish.
4. Gotcher and Fagan were pointing toward the marathon based on the McMillan training system.
5. Arciniaga was training to rabbit.
Fairly predictable result.