Year 1 (1530 miles in 51 weeks, 241 runs): 30mpw, 51 high. 19:29 5K, a 19:31 as well. Probably the most speed/workouts of the 3 years of running.
Year 2 (1007 miles, 189 runs): 23mpw if you average it all out, picked up an injury. Ran a 5:30 downhill mile slightly hungover toward the end of that year.
Year 3 (currently; 275 runs in 305 days): Mileage 22, 34, 34, 39 (19:51 5K), 35, 37, 34, 36, 37, 24, 40 (25:09 4 miler), 33, 35, 32, 28, 26, 32, 32, 33, 33, 41, 37, 64, 29, 46, 33, 26, 35, 35 (1:33 half marathon), off week, 22, 40, 40, 45, 45, 45, 50, 45, 50, 50, 40, 55, 30
No test efforts this year. I'm an infrequent racer who doesn't do many workouts on one extreme and easy runs on the other extreme. I can't hold into the 60's on mileage b/c I simply don't get enough sleep to pull it off.
I'm assuming I can at least duplicate my 5K PR right now. I'm finishing January in the 55-60 mpw range (I've been doing strides), dropping it for 6 weeks and incorporating some 10K pace stuff mostly, got a mile and a 5K at the end of that, take a week, run a 10 miler and then see what's what.
Should I just forget the 17:xx idea if I can't regularly run 18 something at this kind of mileage? Thanks.