As we see elite women barely dipping under 1:10 for a half marathon and winning, or running 1.07-1:09 and approving of their great performance; does this highlight a beamonesque performance by Paula Radcliffe for her marathon wr? Of course, this is what I felt before bolt disposed of mj's 19.32 and rudisha slahed kipketer's record. Thoughts? Is there anyone on the horizon that forseeably could eclipse this record? Vipam?
I like my odds wrote:
As we see elite women barely dipping under 1:10 for a half marathon and winning, or running 1.07-1:09 and approving of their great performance; does this highlight a beamonesque performance by Paula Radcliffe for her marathon wr? Of course, this is what I felt before bolt disposed of mj's 19.32 and rudisha slahed kipketer's record. Thoughts? Is there anyone on the horizon that forseeably could eclipse this record? Vipam?
Yes, it will be beaten. But not anytime soon.
PR's Marathon compares to a 1:04:13 HM. That's over two minutes faster than the current WR. To put it into perspective, it's like someone runs a MENs HM of 56:20. We will not see that anytime soon, either.
Now I have to say, I said the same about MJ's 200m WR. We know how that turned out.
2:15:25 is a massive performance for a woman. No one else has come within three minutes of it.
Eventually someone will come along to break it but don't hold your breath. Beamon's record lasted for 23 years; Radcliffe's is nearing its eighth birthday and no one is anyone near it. And since she has ran sub-2:18 three times, and no other woman has done better than 2:18:47, it's obvious that she was just totally superior to any other female marathoner to-date.
It is more Beamonesque than Beamon, whose mark was not as good as it looks because he had the maximum allowable wind of 2.0 (and might have had an actual wind as high as 2.9, since the wind readings were being done wrong) at an very high altitude. His 8.90 is not in the same league as not only 8.95, but Lewis' entire series from that WC and maybe another half dozen or my by him and several by others.
I think it would have probably been a WR at sea level, little wind, but at any rate it was not really THAT much better than Owen's LJ WR from the 1930s.
Comparing Paula's time to the mens current world records isn't necessarily an accurate assumption. It would be assuming that there hasn't been any "phenoms" in the mens marathon/half marathon. I would definitely call Geb a phenom. Paula was really REALLY good, and was built for the marathon. But if we can see one of our sub-14:20 women give the marathon an honest effort for 3-5 years, we could definitely see a sub 2:15.
There are 35 sub 2:06 times for men. Geb has five of them.
There are three sub 2:18 times for women. Paula has all three. 35th fastest women's time is five minutes slower than Paula's WR.
Some would argue that women's times are underrepresented because of discrimination in E. African athletics in favor of men. But, there is definitely something different about Paula. She is Usain Bolt-esque. She broke the mold of the 5'2" women's runner. She brings a proportional strength to a 5'8" runner that put her in a class of her own, much like Bolt. She is just physically different.
But if we can see one of our sub-14:20 women give the marathon an honest effort for 3-5 years, we could definitely see a sub 2:15.
14:20 compares to high 2:19h. Make that sub14, then we're talking.
Which will lead us to the question: will women ever be able to break 14min? ;)
powerofreason wrote:
2:15:25 is a massive performance for a woman.
She was eating her Wheaties - there is probably a test for her flavor of Wheaties now and you won't see anyone run that kind of time until a new flavor comes out.
Wasn't Paula "training in Albuquerque" during the Shvetsov era?
For you naive fools, Dr. Leonid Shvetsov was the EPO supplier to the "elites" in Albuquerque.
"The athletes who have the money and power are the ones who are getting away with murder on this stuff."
Bar or pie?
B I G G U Y wrote:
She was eating her Wheaties - there is probably a test for her flavor of Wheaties now and you won't see anyone run that kind of time until a new flavor comes out.
Wasn't Paula "training in Albuquerque" during the Shvetsov era?
For you naive fools, Dr. Leonid Shvetsov was the EPO supplier to the "elites" in Albuquerque.
"The athletes who have the money and power are the ones who are getting away with murder on this stuff."
Are you kidding me! PR was always good - won world Jnr XC, beating W junxia (WR holder in 3000/10000m). She ran 8.51 for 3000m as a junior, and got outkicked doing that (4th at WJnr). What she lacked was closing speed. So she simply worked harder than most others as she kept moving up in distance. I think that if she had been a good kicker that she would never have developed the capacity to run that kind of Marathon time. She had the will and ability (much like Coe et al in the '80's in a different way) to get the work done. Conspiracy theorists always like to think that anyone who runs fast must have been doping because they can't fathom anyone having the gumption (with talent) to get on with it, likely because they themselves didn't have it. I think Kastor could have gotten closer (2h19 is still very good) if she hadn't wasted a few years earlier at Arkansas being injured and not getting the appropriate work done - she had almost as much talent, but I think many people have only so many years when they can push themselves to an extreme degree (as the marathon requires).
BTW, unlike Decker, PR hasn't ever tested positive, and her decline in performance since then really shows that she hit her peak about that time period as well. It's "fishier" IMO when someone stays at the same level for years as if age and "wear and tear" have no effect on them - 'nuff said.
I see what you're saying canadeh, but if I recall Marion Jones showed great promise (winning CA state meet all four years! in the 100m) and never tested positive. Her example looms large whenever people put up the "s/he was always good and was never caught so therefore wasn't doping" argument.
To the OP: Rudisha's was a great performance but probably about expected from a historical standpoint, I think (under the assumption that *either* Coe, Kipketer and the Rudisha were all on peds or all weren't). To me Paula's marathon really is different.
Radcliffe's time is amazing, but simply showed what a woman with excellent aerobic capacity and a lack of speed can do if they get the balance between long, hard training and injury just about perfect.
I suppose only PR knows if she did it correctly or not- I hope she did. it seems she left nothing to chance though: sleep, diet, training, massage, etc. She came off as obsessive about all those things. That would be a hard woman to live with, I think. I remember her sign she carried in the stands during the one meet where a suspicious woman ran the 5k. It said: "drug cheats out". Hard to believe that she would be do antidoping and indulge herself into such a slippery slope.
When comparing times one needs to be careful as her Marathon was paced by men. Nothing wrong with that, it is not illegal but certainly provides and advantage. It's like if Geb had one pacer for the first half and then another one for the 2nd half. How much difference does it make? Maybe 90sec?
We'll probably never know what Dibaba or Defar could do at this distance... they're too good at 5K/10K. However, the fact that they haven't gone sub-30 yet for 10K makes it unlikely that they would be better than 2:16- even with male pacers.
canadeh wrote:
won world Jnr XC, beating W junxia (WR holder in 3000/10000m)
junxia mistakenly wore flats for that race and was slipping terribly on the ice. there's a video on yt, you can see her slipping and hardly getting anywhere, which is when she got passed. she would have won that race easily wearing spikes.
You deserve to lose if you are that stupid.
I saw the needle and the damage done. A little bit of it in everyoneone. Gone, gone, the damage done.
Vertigo wrote:
We'll probably never know what Dibaba or Defar could do at this distance... they're too good at 5K/10K. However, the fact that they haven't gone sub-30 yet for 10K makes it unlikely that they would be better than 2:16- even with male pacers.
t. dibaba and defar have gone sub 30 for a track 10k as have abeylegesse, melkamu and junxia, only junxia has retired so 4 of the 5 sub 30 for 10k girls are running of the 4
1. defar won her debut half marathon in 67:45 over a very good field in philadelphia but 67:45 x 2 equals 2:15.30 so she wasnt even on radcliffes pace at half the distance, but she did still have her great sprint at the end so she probably can go faster.
2. abeylegesse ran her first half marathon in 67:07 she either runs great or is injured, she will run her 2nd half marathon on february 6th in japan.
3. melkamu has never run a half marathon, much less a marathon, but she said she wants to someday, and her father was a very good marathoner who did not want her to be a runner, the article did not say his name, but if her father is a good marathoner maybe it is in the genes.
4. tirunesh dibaba says she wants to run until the 2028 olympics and says she definetely wants to run a marathon in a fast time, her longest race she has ever run is a 15k where she ran a world record, her aunt deratu tulu when asked if her niece would be good in the marathon? she said her neice would run a lot faster than tulu's best of 2:23.30, and tirunesh would be a world record threat when she moves up.