sub 2:10 marathoners in 2011: Kenya+Ethiopia 99, USA+JPN 3. "We are catching up" ???

NO, that was not a prediction thread.

OBVIOUSLY I meant 2010.

So sue me.

No one cares.......

(?)

Same thing in Britain. Lousy coaching.

Tom Bradycardia wrote:

No one cares.......

(?)

That too.

J.O. wrote:

Same thing in Britain. Lousy coaching.

If it was just a matter of coaching then it's strange that it's a rather different picture for women...

Women's racing is less competitive than the mens...Obviously...

i only see 2 sub 2:10 from the usa.

i have 124 sub 2:10 marathoners in the world in 2010

kenya has 72

ethiopia has 36

morrocco has 6

USA has 2

japan, south korea, brazil, eritria, uganda, tanzania, south africa and moldova have 1 each.

so looking at the glass half full only 3 countries had more sub 2:10 marathoners than us in 2010.

pr100 wrote:

J.O. wrote:

Same thing in Britain. Lousy coaching.

If it was just a matter of coaching then it's strange that it's a rather different picture for women...

****************************************

Maybe Women are easier to coach because they don't have the inferiority complex of the white male distance runner?

Do Musyoki and Mutai train together? Those 2 are sick.

What I find interesting is that we have A LOT of guys who would be competitive with these 2:04 and 2:05 marathoners over 10,000, but by 1/2 marathon they have most of those same guys beat by 2-3 minutes, and by a marathon, by 5-7 minutes!

In my opinion, it shows that the high school and collegiate focus on running fast on the track takes away from time spent building the aerobic engine.

We have come a long way in adding mileage, but I really believe that its a lot more then just adding morning runs or a long run. Its actually limiting the V02Max work and speed workouts and adding in more tempos. We probably also need to learn to slow down our easy runs to teach the body to consume energy slowly rather then burn it up quickly.

Brett Gotcher has shown what an 8:55 HS 2-miler can do with dedication, mileage and patience.

I would be willing to bet that if every year you took every single 9:10 and faster hs kid, and began training them for the marathon (just copy a simple Canova program), that by the time they were 25-26, 70% would be 2:10 or faster.

Of course I can't prove this, but I really do believe it.

douglas burke wrote:

i only see 2 sub 2:10 from the usa.

i have 124 sub 2:10 marathoners in the world in 2010

kenya has 72

ethiopia has 36

morrocco has 6

USA has 2

japan, south korea, brazil, eritria, uganda, tanzania, south africa and moldova have 1 each.

so looking at the glass half full only 3 countries had more sub 2:10 marathoners than us in 2010.

made 2 errors morroco had 5 not 6 under 2:10 and eritrea had 2 men not 1 under 2:10

so kenya-72

ethiopia-36

morrocco-5

USA and eritrea 2 each

japan, brazil, , uganda, tanzania, south africa and moldova 1 each.

if you go by continent

africa 118

north america (usa) 2

asia 2 (japan and south korea)

south america 2 brazil

oceana had 0, lydiard must be rolling over in his grave.

9:10 to sub 2:10 wrote:

What I find interesting is that we have A LOT of guys who would be competitive with these 2:04 and 2:05 marathoners over 10,000, but by 1/2 marathon they have most of those same guys beat by 2-3 minutes, and by a marathon, by 5-7 minutes!

In my opinion, it shows that the high school and collegiate focus on running fast on the track takes away from time spent building the aerobic engine.

Of course I can't prove this, but I really do believe it.

yes we are more competitive at 10k

some stats

10k

americans in all time list

top 100, 5 american men in top 100

200-13

300-20-

400-30

500-37

600-47

700-61

800-72

900-87

1000-92

marathon

top 100-2 americans on all time top 100 USA list

200-2

300-4

400-8

500-14

600-20

700-26

800-30

900-38

1000-49

Really??? wrote:

Women's racing is less competitive than the mens...Obviously...

In rural E. Africa, women are kept in the home and not allowed to compete at sports. Female Ethiopian runners are seen as women's liberation icons. But for the cultural suppression of women's running in E. African, they would also dominate the women's side of the sport in the same way the men do.

Precious Roy wrote:

Really??? wrote:

Women's racing is less competitive than the mens...Obviously...

In rural E. Africa, women are kept in the home and not allowed to compete at sports. Female Ethiopian runners are seen as women's liberation icons. But for the cultural suppression of women's running in E. African, they would also dominate the women's side of the sport in the same way the men do.

I agree, and they are of course already almost there.

Another sobering stat:

Born-in-the-USA all time performers under 2:08: 1

Ken/Eth performers under 2:08 in 2010 ALONE : 38

I think that these #'s are mind-boggling.

the OP wrote that US plus Japan equals 3 (2 plus 1), not that each had three.

How do you explain the ability of Kenya and Ethiopia to produce dozens of sub 2:10 marathoners every year? I see a genetic explanation here, but they didn't always produce so many. My view is that it is the training, plus the altitude, and the dirt roads. If our guys did the exact same training from the same age, we would have more sub 2:10 guys than they do. And of course if not for sexism, they would dominate women's distance running as much as they dominate men's.

How do you explain the ability of Kenya and Ethiopia to produce dozens of sub 2:10 marathoners every year? I see a genetic explanation here, but they didn't always produce so many. My view is that it is the training, plus the altitude, and the dirt roads. If our guys did the exact same training from the same age, we would have more sub 2:10 guys than they do. And of course if not for sexism, they would dominate women's distance running as much as they dominate men's.

1975: 0 Kenyans sub 2:20, 34 US sub 220, 23 UK sub 220

1985: 15 Kenyans sub 2:20, US 103 sub 2:20, UK 74 sub 2:20

1995: 86 Kenyans, 59 US, 34 UK

2005: 490 Kenyans, 22 US, 12 UK

These are who people look up to in the US.

http://www.examiner.com/images/blog/replicate/EXID20836/images/ex_biggest_loser_melissa_morgan_lance_morgan.jpg

Timothy Noakes, in his "Lore of Running" did a statistical analysis of Africans versus the rest of the world. I forget the exact numbers, but for every non-African, there were something like 80 Africans. He drew curves with means and statistical deviations. So "only" 100 Africans versus 3 non-Africans could be part of a positive trend.

And of course in countless threads, you've heard all the reasons and theories behind it: one or more of genetics, altitude, culture, training, work ethic, opportunity, motivation, and/or drugs.

But Noakes described a "cattle rustling" theory about East Africans. Those who had cows were considered rich, and got married and had kids. Presumably they had to run after the cows to steal them, effectively selectively breeding many generations of cattle rustlers. But once white farmers started owning cows, they managed to "redirect" the cattle rustlers by building a track and forming running clubs.

Now I have to re-read that part again, to make sure I did it justice -- maybe I got a few facts wrong, or embellished, doing it from memory.

With all due respect to your interpretation of Noakes analysis, I don't think a ratio of 100 KEN/ETH to 3 USA/JPN sub 2:10 marathoners can be considered "positive" in any sense of the word. And clearly, without even looking it up, this clearly is the biggest gap ever of this nature. The depth gap is CLEARLY getting wider.

Yes, the environment in East Africa led to genetic selection of great mid-distance/distance runners. That is all that means of course.

Czech guy wrote:

1975: 0 Kenyans sub 2:20, 34 US sub 220, 23 UK sub 220

1985: 15 Kenyans sub 2:20, US 103 sub 2:20, UK 74 sub 2:20

1995: 86 Kenyans, 59 US, 34 UK

2005: 490 Kenyans, 22 US, 12 UK

Ken/Eth today have nearly as many sub 2:10 guys in one year as the USA had sub 2:20 guys in one year back when we were still having some of our best depth years of marathoning (like '85).

More stats:

born-in-the-USA ALL TIME sub 2:10 marathoners: 12

KEN/ETH sub 2:10 marathoners from 2010 alone: 99

Game, set, match, folks. We may have a stud or two battle their best. But for every one or two top guys we have, they will have, oh, I don't, 99 or so.