Here's to a Prosperous 2011

Flagpole wrote:

Here's hoping all of you find wealth and happiness in 2011.

Reasons to be optimistic:

1) Manufacturing has grown now for the 17th straight month, including the biggest growth in 7 months.

2) The stock market continues to climb. The Dow is up over 125 points today and the Dow is now over 11,700.

3) Hiring is expected to pick up greatly in 2011.

Reason to be pessimistic:

That damn Obama is still in the White House...(this was just a test; if you agreed with that statement, you are a Republican with blinders on). Not saying that Obama is the reason for the improving economy, but he's not a drag on it either.

Anyway, regardless of your political party affiliation, here's to prosperity in 2011!

When USA Today declared 2011 the year for stocks I became very nervous. Similar to Newsweek claiming equities are dead in 1979.

aaaaaeeeee wrote:

When USA Today declared 2011 the year for stocks I became very nervous. Similar to Newsweek claiming equities are dead in 1979.

Yeah, but I am sure someone else is declaring stocks to be dead right now. There is always someone declaring damned near anything at any given time.

So USA Today (or Newsweek or...) is not a leading indicator, not a counter-indicator, basically not an indicator of any kind. Just entertainment.

the tax cuts will provide some stimulus this year (tax cuts provide a small stimulus, nothing like welfare or infrastructure spending), which will also drive the economy. the stimulus will not be very effective or provide long term help, but will get the economy going for the time being, so stocks are a good investment.

I agree with your general sentiment, ESPECIALLY since 2009 and 2010 were GREAT years for stocks. Odd though that we've had to awesome years for stocks and yet if you were to ask the "man on the street" how he thought the stock market did the last 2 years, he would say it was in the tank. I still hear people on television in front of an audience say things like that, and the people cheer. It's complete BS. 2009 was my second biggest gain year EVER (34.7%) and then I'll take the 19.8% I made in 2010 any day (or year)!I expect modest gains in 2011 as the economy should still improve. I think there are a lot of people who are always late to the party, and they will help drive stocks further north...they SHOULD have been in back in March 2009 though. Tsk, tsk.

aaaaaeeeee wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

Here's hoping all of you find wealth and happiness in 2011.

Reasons to be optimistic:

1) Manufacturing has grown now for the 17th straight month, including the biggest growth in 7 months.

2) The stock market continues to climb. The Dow is up over 125 points today and the Dow is now over 11,700.

3) Hiring is expected to pick up greatly in 2011.

Reason to be pessimistic:

That damn Obama is still in the White House...(this was just a test; if you agreed with that statement, you are a Republican with blinders on). Not saying that Obama is the reason for the improving economy, but he's not a drag on it either.

Anyway, regardless of your political party affiliation, here's to prosperity in 2011!

When USA Today declared 2011 the year for stocks I became very nervous. Similar to Newsweek claiming equities are dead in 1979.

jjjjjjjj wrote:

the tax cuts will provide some stimulus this year (tax cuts provide a small stimulus, nothing like welfare or infrastructure spending), which will also drive the economy. the stimulus will not be very effective or provide long term help, but will get the economy going for the time being, so stocks are a good investment.

Tax cuts will help.

Stocks will be driven up a bit because business and many individuals believe the more balanced Washington DC is a very good thing, but of course this will come crashing down when they realize the new Congress is just "business as usual" and that really it matters little who is in there...some BS is always the result.

The main thing is that stocks should continue to go up based on a falling unemployment rate, rising consumer confidence, and ever improving company balance sheets ultimately leading to more hiring.

FLAGPOLE

Give us your January 1, 2012 DOW average.

Your last guess was pretty good. Not perfect, but on the right track.

Limiting wrote:

FLAGPOLE

Give us your January 1, 2012 DOW average.

Your last guess was pretty good. Not perfect, but on the right track.

I would love to, but I don't yet have as clear a picture of 2011 as I did of the last 3 months of 2010. Still lots of ifs right now. If I HAD to guess right now, I would predict an improvement of 8% for the Dow for 2011, perhaps with a tailing off at the end (meaning it would be higher than 8% before the end of the year and then falling to JUST an 8% gain), so from 11,557 that puts the Dow at end of 2011 at 12,481; of course we're up over 1% on the first trading day already. RIGHT NOW I would be surprised if it closed lower than that and less surprised if it closed decently higher than that.

A falling unemployment rate should happen, and with consistent reports of an ever-improving economy (those WILL happen), the markets COULD boom...I'm just not calling that just yet.