Predict my Half Marathon

1:52-1:57.

1:13:00

What is your vertical leap?

If I run 1:13, I'll be pissed off.

rhythm runnner wrote:

If I run 1:13, I'll be pissed off.

How could you be pissed? You're barely training. 30 miles a week is four to five miles a day. You're dedicating half an hour to your training out of the 24 available to you. Why do you think you deserve to run faster than 1:13?

langenwanker, johnny wrote:

How could you be pissed? You're barely training. 30 miles a week is four to five miles a day. You're dedicating half an hour to your training out of the 24 available to you. Why do you think you deserve to run faster than 1:13?

Deserve's got nothing to do with it (to quote Clint Eastwood). I was able to run the 1:10 in 2009 with even less training than I'm doing now. That's why I'm hoping to pull off a PR despite the low mileage. But then again, I'm two years older, and you just never know. Btw, 30mpw was back in August. Now I'm doing 50-55mpw, with some decent quality, except during the weeks where I get sick or what have you.

rhythm runnner wrote:

langenwanker, johnny wrote:

How could you be pissed? You're barely training. 30 miles a week is four to five miles a day. You're dedicating half an hour to your training out of the 24 available to you. Why do you think you deserve to run faster than 1:13?

Deserve's got nothing to do with it (to quote Clint Eastwood). I was able to run the 1:10 in 2009 with even less training than I'm doing now. That's why I'm hoping to pull off a PR despite the low mileage. But then again, I'm two years older, and you just never know. Btw, 30mpw was back in August. Now I'm doing 50-55mpw, with some decent quality, except during the weeks where I get sick or what have you.

Well brother, with basically a 33:00 flat 10k in early December, (which translates to about a 1:13 half), 1:13 is a good guess. Now, you've said you've been running more, but still, you said "except during the weeks where I get sick or what have you." Well, how many of those have there been?

If you pull off a PR in that January half, it's either because it's a short or fast (downhill) course or you just REALLY gained some fitness in the last month (maybe you were a bit heavy in early December or something), because your training (unless you jogged that Dec. 10k) doesn't indicate 1:10 or faster.

I'll say that due to familiarity with the course and halfway decent training in December that you'll run 1:11. Just don't think a PR is in the cars for you this time.

If you really want to challenge that PR of yours, I suggest that next time you throw in several weeks of 15-20 mile weekend runs and have a mid-week run of 10-12 miles. You're really doing the bare minimum to run a decent half relative to your talent in my opinion.

Thanks Flagpole. I actually ran that 10k pretty hard but I cramped up the last mile horribly. I sort of trained through that race.

I guess I have this expectation that I should be able to exceed my fitness level in the half for no other reason than I did it once before. But that's pretty optimistic or delusional thinking. So I guess I should be prepared for a possible 1:11-1:12 and just have fun with it.

i dont know anything about you other than the info you gave. given that, i would guess 1:12. but you should have a better idea of what you can do than i do.

im not saying you should do more miles. but if you bumped up to 70-80mpw for your next HM you would likely go well under 1:10

Is that you Josh?

rhythm runnner wrote:

Thanks Flagpole. I actually ran that 10k pretty hard but I cramped up the last mile horribly. I sort of trained through that race.

I guess I have this expectation that I should be able to exceed my fitness level in the half for no other reason than I did it once before. But that's pretty optimistic or delusional thinking. So I guess I should be prepared for a possible 1:11-1:12 and just have fun with it.

No one knows your body and fitness level better than you. Perhaps you're better at the half than at the 10,000. If you really THINK you're fit enough for a 1:09, then set out to do it...you MIGHT burn out a bit and do a death march the last couple miles, or you might just do it. Don't let me talk you out of going for a time you think you might be able to get. I think we've all had a race where we ran faster than we thought we should have been able to on that day. Good luck brother.

Whazzup ya'll. I ran 1:10:30. Don't bother asking for a link to the results because I don't particularly want my identity outed on here.

I was on pace to go sub 70 minutes until miles 10-11 when the $hit finally hit the fan. The moral of the story is I cannot go sub 70 with this kind of low mileage training. This much is now proven.

gunnerty wrote:

Is that you Josh?

Definitely Josh Brashears in the Naples Daily News Half Marathon:

He rounded up his time to 1:10.30. Everything else matches. You beat Desiree Davila by a few seconds.

Nice time. That would have given you 430ish or so place in this race... http://japanrunningnews.blogspot.com/2008/11/deeper-and-deeper-goes-greatest-half.html