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I think that the mile/1500 will fall. Between the current top in the world, Kiprop and Kiplagat, and the rising Americans, Webb with his comeback, Wheating drastically improving every year, it is just a matter of time.
The marathon record won't last long, Tadese and Wanjiru are possibilities.
Rudisha will likely break the 800 record again.
Bolt will probably break the 100 or 200 like usual.
Will go out on a limb here...Women's Pole Vault. 5.07
Most inflation created in a year.
5000m man and women.
110 m hurdles
World Marathon Record by Wanjiru
Half Marathon record by Tadesse
110 M Hurdles by Robles or Oliver
anything but 3000m
Men's Marathon- by more than 2 guys
Men's 1/2 marathon
Men's 800 (sub 1:40?)
Men's 100 and 200
Men's 400- especially if Bolt gives it a real go.
110H
Men's Marathon
I think there will be 326's/327's run, but no one will dip under to set a new WR
My take on it wrote:
Rudisha will likely break the 800 record again.
Agreed. Also if he chooses to run the 1000 m.
Why does EVERYONE believe that Geb's 2:03:59 is going to be broken? Running a 1:02 then dropping a negative split is absolute insane, and shows tremendous talent and fitness. Wanjiru is great, but i don't think he'll EVER take down Geb's mark. yes, his insane consistency in the 2:05's and 2:06's, as well as his race tactics, are spectacular (and that's not even mentioning his fmr. world record 1/2 or his jr. 26:45 10k), but i don't think he has quite what it takes.
Now obviously Wanjiru and his coaches know better than us, but i still think it's quite a bit of hype. Usually, top tier marathoners run about 3:00 slower per half then their best half at the full marathon distance (aka, a 59:00 guy would split 1:02). Which means that Wanjiru should be able to do it. However, when's the last time we saw him in that type of form?
I think Jeremy Wariner could give the Indoor 400 a good go. The time Clement ran though is very solid and he had many races under his belt when he ran it. Wariner will have to be in good shape by his first race. The chances that he runs 2 races indoors is unlikely.
You could also see Tamgho grab the outdoor record in the TJ. He already has the the indoor, and he really jumped well all season long last year.
The womens track records are very difficult. Safe to say they are ridiculously out of reach.
Rudisha and Bolt will go after there own records and the 4x1 could fall again.
The 110s is the most interesting because of the competition factor. If Robles, Xiang and Oliver are healthy we could see the most spectacular hurdling ever. They are the 3 fastest ever.
Why does EVERYONE believe that Geb's 2:03:59 is going to be broken? Running a 1:02 then dropping a negative split is absolute insane, and shows tremendous talent and fitness. Wanjiru is great, but i don't think he'll EVER take down Geb's mark. yes, his insane consistency in the 2:05's and 2:06's, as well as his race tactics, are spectacular (and that's not even mentioning his fmr. world record 1/2 or his jr. 26:45 10k), but i don't think he has quite what it takes.
Now obviously Wanjiru and his coaches know better than us, but i still think it's quite a bit of hype. Usually, top tier marathoners run about 3:00 slower per half then their best half at the full marathon distance (aka, a 59:00 guy would split 1:02). Which means that Wanjiru should be able to do it. However, when's the last time we saw him in that type of form?
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Geb's mark of 2:03:59 is unbelieveably impressive but it is inevitable that it is going to be taken down. Especially considering that in Rotterdam two No- Name Kenyans both ran 2:04:27 to become the 2nd and third fastest men of all time. Wanjiru hasn't run on what I consider a "magic" course either so honestly I think it will come down.
For those of you wondering, there are two(Three this year) magic courses. I call them magic courses because it seems like every time elites race on them even no name Kenyans get incredibly fast times. These courses give nearly every single elite a PR (Unless they've raced on another Magic Course or just have a bad day or something along those lines) on a good year and you can see that by checking the results. One is Berlin. One is Rotterdam. And this year, one is Frankfurt(only this year however). These are courses that literally bump up your times by minutes. Nine out of ten of the fastest people have recorded there personal best on these three courses. Eight out of Ten in particular have been on Rotterdam and Berlin. Five out of Ten of these times have been on Rotterdam, and the Other 3 on Berlin. Rotterdam practically gives you a 2 minute bump up on Chicago or London. Berlin also has it's own little magic and is the best major marathon for breaking the WR.
Wanjiru has only raced in Fukouka, Beijing Olympic Marathon, Chicago, and London. Fukouka was towards the beggining of his marathon career, and is fast but not incredibly fast. The Beijing Olympic Marathon he ran 2:06:32 on, with a high of 85 during the race and a lot of humidity. It was also incredibly tactical, also probably slowing him down. No pacemakers either, and I think he could of been pushed slightly harder. Considering he's very good at dealing with heat, so it's not quite as impressive as it seems, we can say that should be worth just under Two hours, 4 minutes time on a "magic" course, which would be a WR.
Of course, everyone is in shape for the Olympics. So then we go to London. Not a magical course either. He runs 2:05:10. Impressive, considering he got on the Top Ten all time list, the only Top Ten all time not on a "magic" course(although still a very fast course). The next time, he runs in Chicago in a tactical race and runs 2:05:40. Alright, first race besides Fukouka not WR material.
But what makes this so impressive is his 2010 Chicago Marathon race. He comes in this year with major injuries, dropping out of London and having to ditch a huge part of his training. He comes into the Chicago marathon undertrained, just coming off a serious case of West Nile(I believe) and missing a Month of training. He comes in on a warm day to a tactical race, and wins in 2:06:24. If he had not run the race tactically, had pacers actually pacing him to a WR, hadn't been undertrained, and hadn't had to deal with the heat and the humidity he probably could have run right around 2:04. And that isn't even on a "magic" course. Wanjiru has a fighting spirit and that Chicago win convinced me that he is willing to push himself to the limits. Once he gets back in shape, actually trains to break the WR, and races in Berlin I think if he manages to show the fighting spirit he showed in Chicago and all his other races he can break the WR.
Women's high jump - Blanka Vlasic
Men's 110H - Robles or Oliver
Men's 400 - Wariner
Women's hammer throw - Anita Wlodarczyk
Women's 400H - Lashinda Demus
Men's 800 - Rudisha
Men's 1000 or 600 - Rudisha if he tries either may have a shot
I'd say: 110H, 1000m, and marathon on the men's side. I'm betting that Rudisha doesn't break the 800 again, and that Bolt has (for now?) hit a plateau. None of the other men's running records look to be threatened--certainly not the 400, 1500, mile, 3-5-10,000, etc.
Really?? wrote:
Why does EVERYONE believe that Geb's 2:03:59 is going to be broken? Running a 1:02 then dropping a negative split is absolute insane, and shows tremendous talent and fitness. Wanjiru is great, but i don't think he'll EVER take down Geb's mark. yes, his insane consistency in the 2:05's and 2:06's, as well as his race tactics, are spectacular (and that's not even mentioning his fmr. world record 1/2 or his jr. 26:45 10k), but i don't think he has quite what it takes.
Now obviously Wanjiru and his coaches know better than us, but i still think it's quite a bit of hype. Usually, top tier marathoners run about 3:00 slower per half then their best half at the full marathon distance (aka, a 59:00 guy would split 1:02). Which means that Wanjiru should be able to do it. However, when's the last time we saw him in that type of form?
_______________________________________________________
Geb's mark of 2:03:59 is unbelieveably impressive but it is inevitable that it is going to be taken down. Especially considering that in Rotterdam two No- Name Kenyans both ran 2:04:27 to become the 2nd and third fastest men of all time. Wanjiru hasn't run on what I consider a "magic" course either so honestly I think it will come down.
For those of you wondering, there are two(Three this year) magic courses. I call them magic courses because it seems like every time elites race on them even no name Kenyans get incredibly fast times. These courses give nearly every single elite a PR (Unless they've raced on another Magic Course or just have a bad day or something along those lines) on a good year and you can see that by checking the results. One is Berlin. One is Rotterdam. And this year, one is Frankfurt(only this year however). These are courses that literally bump up your times by minutes. Nine out of ten of the fastest people have recorded there personal best on these three courses. Eight out of Ten in particular have been on Rotterdam and Berlin. Five out of Ten of these times have been on Rotterdam, and the Other 3 on Berlin. Rotterdam practically gives you a 2 minute bump up on Chicago or London. Berlin also has it's own little magic and is the best major marathon for breaking the WR.
Wanjiru has only raced in Fukouka, Beijing Olympic Marathon, Chicago, and London. Fukouka was towards the beggining of his marathon career, and is fast but not incredibly fast. The Beijing Olympic Marathon he ran 2:06:32 on, with a high of 85 during the race and a lot of humidity. It was also incredibly tactical, also probably slowing him down. No pacemakers either, and I think he could of been pushed slightly harder. Considering he's very good at dealing with heat, so it's not quite as impressive as it seems, we can say that should be worth just under Two hours, 4 minutes time on a "magic" course, which would be a WR.
Of course, everyone is in shape for the Olympics. So then we go to London. Not a magical course either. He runs 2:05:10. Impressive, considering he got on the Top Ten all time list, the only Top Ten all time not on a "magic" course(although still a very fast course). The next time, he runs in Chicago in a tactical race and runs 2:05:40. Alright, first race besides Fukouka not WR material.
But what makes this so impressive is his 2010 Chicago Marathon race. He comes in this year with major injuries, dropping out of London and having to ditch a huge part of his training. He comes into the Chicago marathon undertrained, just coming off a serious case of West Nile(I believe) and missing a Month of training. He comes in on a warm day to a tactical race, and wins in 2:06:24. If he had not run the race tactically, had pacers actually pacing him to a WR, hadn't been undertrained, and hadn't had to deal with the heat and the humidity he probably could have run right around 2:04. And that isn't even on a "magic" course. Wanjiru has a fighting spirit and that Chicago win convinced me that he is willing to push himself to the limits. Once he gets back in shape, actually trains to break the WR, and races in Berlin I think if he manages to show the fighting spirit he showed in Chicago and all his other races he can break the WR.
Kibet (2:07:53 going in) and Kwambai (2:05:43 going in) were not exactly "no names" going into Rotterdam. And if they were, then Daniel Komen and Noah Ngeny were no names just prior to running their great times, and those times have not been surpassed (or not by much) since. Don't underestimate how good no-name Kenyans can be, even when compared to famous Kenyans.
Agreed, but the point I was trying to make was that if they were able to get that close to the WR than Wanjiru should also.
Really?? wrote:
Agreed, but the point I was trying to make was that if they were able to get that close to the WR than Wanjiru should also.
I agree with you it looks like he should have a shot at it. My point was just that Wanjiru (or anyone else) breaking the world record anytime soon is not exactly a lock.
It's not a lock, but at least to be, I consider it likely, which is basically what this thread is about. But yes, I do agree with you it is definately not guranteed, especially if there is no one to push Wanjiru as he is not all that great in Time-trial situations anyway.