At the Emerald Nuts Midnight Run they've got Erin Donohue vs. Desi Davila over 4 miles in Central Park.
http://runningusa.org/node/75652#75654
That seems like an interesting matchup to me - miler vs. marathoner. Donohue ran it in 21:22 last year. I couldn't find a 4 mile time for Davila, but she's got PRs of 15:29 5k and 32:06 10k.
So who have you got? Both hit PRs in their specialties last year. I think you have to assume neither one is peaking for a 4 mile road race on New Year's Eve, so I give the edge to Donohue, but Davila's got pretty good speed when she's been working on it.