College Basketball Predictions

Arguments against?

Sure...

How about that repeating for a championship is much more difficult that people realize? The statistical probability of it, no matter how good the teams are, is just very, very low. Florida a couple of years ago really accomplished something amazing (I’m not a Florida fan).

Each year, the statistics point to an average of 1.75 #1 seeds being in the Final Four. Not terrible odds, but I will be surprised if Duke and Ohio State are both still #1 seeds come March. Conference play can shake things up quite a bit. And Michigan State? They have too many losses too early in the season to believe that they have the ability to win 6 straight games against good to great opponents in March. They have the talent, but unless something changes, no.

Just my opinion, but I think that the Elite 8 will consist of at least 2-3 schools from mid major conferences.

and you sir wrote:

With Duke's Kyrie Irving out indefinitely.... looks like Ohio State has a fairly clear path to the title.

Sullinger & Lauderdale give them a significant inside game, and if teams choose to double down low, Buford, Diebler, etc, can kill you with threes. Craft at PG makes them difficult to press (see the FLA game). If there's any weakness at all, it's depth.

So I say Bucks for the title... unless Michigan State turns things around by March. Lots of talent there, too.

Arguments against? Can Duke repeat without Irving?

Its hard to say that Duke is still not a number one team.

Even before Kyrie Irving started performing way above expectations they were easily a top four team and probably the number 2 team in the nation.

So they are still probably one of the top three teams in the nation even without Irving.

With him they are almost unbeatable. I don’t think he will be out the whole season. Last time I looked they thought he’d be back by the end of Jan.

Yes, they have the best coach. Slide Smith to handle the ball and Curry to shooting guard. No biggie.

I realize its early but why would you think Ohio State is the front runner for the title? Other than their high ranking they dont have much going for them. The beat Florida and Florida State (with Florida State holding them to 50 something points) As it turns out Florida isn't a top 25 team. I think Connecticut or Syracuse have a better case than Ohio State for beating the Dukers. Even Kansas has a better resume than Ohio State at this point. The way Syracuse made Michigan State look awful shows a lot and Connecticut beat both Michigan State and Kentucky but they're a bit unpredictable. I'd say Kansas or Syracuse right now have the best chance at beating Duke for the title.

trackview wrote:

I realize its early but why would you think Ohio State is the front runner for the title? Other than their high ranking they dont have much going for them.

They have the best forward in the country who shouldn't even be at Ohio State. (see NBA ridiculous age rule) They have the best 3 point shooter in the country. They have a great shot blocker, very good point guard, and two great all around players, one of which is rated a top defensive player in the country. They also have a "score at will" freshman so they are really 7 deep which is all you need in college. Last year they sometimes only played 6 the whole game.

While the tourney can always be a crap shoot one and done, Ohio State has all the pieces covered and may have one of their best teams since the 60s. With their mix of upperclassmen and standout freshman, they are better than the 2007 National runner-up team.