Realistically now, what are Goucher's chances?

Before I get flamed, the comeback comment was in reference to being off for so long after having a baby. It was not meant as if she was coming back from a long layoff or injuries or had just given the marathon and took a break for a few years. But I will still get flamed anyways.

Because she's the cutest American runner, my answer is: yes.

It is very simple. Kara Goucher races, Desi time trials. Kara was steps away from a win in Boston in a very tactical race over a difficult course and had an amazing debut in NY. Two marathons, two podiums that were very close to being titles. Desi runs her own pace. In Chicago, she was over a mile behind the winner and 2-3 minutes off the chase pack. She ran even 73 splits and was already off the lead pack by 3 minutes at the half. She time trialed.

Kara and Desiree went head to head in Berlin. Kara barfed fluids for almost the entire last hour and still finished ahead of Desiree.

Kara is about 3-4 min faster in the half and has world beater track speed. Her marathon times are no indication of how fast she can run. Those races were either on slow courses or while tossing fluids in a hot Berlin WC.

Could Desiree beat Kara? Sure. Desiree is a fine runner and may be coming into good enough form to finally stay with the lead pack and go for the win. But, if you are going to talk about the odds, go with Kara for the reasons stated above. Pregnancy means nothing. Paula did great after having children, as have many others (didn't Lornah Kiplagat have three kids?).

What is this conceit that has gotten started with the World Marathon Majors of calling the top three finishers 'medalists?' Medalists are people in championship events such as the Olympics, World Championships or Pan-Am Games. It's ridiculous to call the third-placer in a city marathon a bronze medalist.

Did anyone else assume this would be about Adam Goucher?

"Realistically" neither Goucher nor Davila has any kind of chance of medaling in London. One runner versus the field of best runners in the world? Bet the field.

That being said, marathon running isn't a math test. As mentioned, Goucher has had a pretty damn good career so far- excellent debut, steps away from a tactical win in Boston, and a so-so race throwing up at the World Championships. Yes, Davila is a very good and rapidly improving runner in her own right. Yes, Davila could very well beat Goucher in a race. That wouldn't be impossible either, especially at Boston, when Goucher's advantages will be somewhat leveled due to her return from pregnancy.

Loki wrote:

Did anyone else assume this would be about Adam Goucher?

Yes.

insiders know wrote:

What is this conceit that has gotten started with the World Marathon Majors of calling the top three finishers 'medalists?' Medalists are people in championship events such as the Olympics, World Championships or Pan-Am Games. It's ridiculous to call the third-placer in a city marathon a bronze medalist.

The bronze reference is to Kara's 10k bronze in Osaka.

Is Kara a better runner now than she was in Berlin? Has she improved in any distance over the last year? NO, of course not she was having a child.

Is Desiree a better runner now than she was in Berlin?

3000 before Berlin 9:07 after 8:51

5000 before Berlin 16:01 after 15:29

10000 before Berlin 32:25 after 32:06

YES. She is a better runner at every distance. Has this improvement in other distances caused a 5 second improvement in the Marathon? That is how far behind Kara she was in Berlin. I say YES.

You answered my question. I see no way Goucher is going to medal and to be honest I would bet Davila will beat her in London if they both make the team.

I think her return is too quick, although others have done it I just don't think it's the right move.

I've run 2:33, which is nothing special, but you never know if you're talking to 4 hour marathoners who just don't understand the sport or someone who gets it.

A lot of runners jumped on the KG band wagon and I just don't see her head and shoulders above Davila, yet many do which I find puzzling.

Yes it was hot at the World Championships, but it was hot for Davila too and she was only seconds behind Kara who couldn't handle the pace and wilted. Also, as mentioned, it was hot in Chicago as well and I truly believe Davila would have run at least 2 minutes faster, although many will disagree with that as well.

Oh well:)

Not sure what you are even talking about. The bronze medal I spoke of was for Kastor in Athens, as in the Olympics in 2004. I never called her, as in Kara, a medalist in anything, not even her tainted 10,000 bronze in 2007 (Osaka?). That was a shallow field compared to Beijing, hence her 10th place in Beijing while pr'ing. So what are you referring to? New York City? I never said her 3rd place there was a medal or anything along those lines. Please explain because you replied to my post.