I'm about to turn 49 years old and, unfortunately, am a former half-decent runner who let himself go to pot. In the late 80s (my mid-late 20s), I was a 14:35 / 30:45 runner for 5k/10k. I wouldn't say that was my full potential, but pretty close.
But in the 90s, I ran little as my career took off and the last 10 years almost nothing. I'm 5'8" and used to race at 125-130 ... now I'm around 190 with almost all of the extra in my belly.
So this is my plan: Try and lose 40-50 pounds through diet and moderate exercise this coming year, figuring my goal weight to be 140-150 (don't think former weight is realistic). I'm going to start with walking, as almost any of the lightest jogging makes my calves cramp up. I'm hoping in the summer I can be at least in the 160s and starting mixing running with jogging and not have those symptoms. I realize I need to see a doctor and also try and do some at least light weight training and core work.
I doubt I'd plan to race in 2011, but hope to start in 2012, when I'll be 50. I'm guessing if I can follow this, I could be back in pretty good shape in maybe 18-24 months.
So this is my question: Given the times I ran in my 20s, what's reasonable to hope for as a long-term goal for 5k in my early 50s. I just want to have something fun to shoot for, no matter how far off. Is sub-17 reasonable, or sub-18? How much of a dropoff is average over that time span? I'm thinking 2-3 minutes, but not sure. If I can ever get to running sub-6 miles again for a 5k or maybe further, I think I'd be pretty happy.
Would love to hear any success stories of comebacks, any advice or other good thoughts. Thanks!