Will he pull it off?
Will he pull it off?
Get back to me when he breaks 3:50
I'm sure the attempt will be there. I can see him trying to get the 2 mile record first and then maybe trying to get into Pre to go for sub-4. Is there another Jim Ryun Dream Mile?
oh i'm sure he will
4:04 last year basically solo
one year of training, 3:59 for sure.
Last year he promised to break 4 minutes, break the NR in the 2 mile (outdoor), and break the NR in the 5000m outdoor. Do you think that the same type of "shape" will be good for all three, or can he only be in shape for one of those or maybe two at max in the outdoor season?
He will go 3:58, 8:37, 13:32. Additionally 1 other high school runner will break 4, but just barely.
if he tries: 400m 44.66 800m 1:44.23 mile 3:45.45 2mile 8:06 5k 12:53 Discus 210 ft Shot 65 ft PV 17.9 ft.....
if he doesn't try: 400m 46.34 800m 1:47.99 mile 3:49.23 (and he will give the poster above a call right after for affirmation) 2mile 8:20 5K 13:24 Marathon 2:11 Discus only 150ft Shot only 51ft AND most disappointingly, Pv only 13.6 ft
I know it is tempting to say "he ran 404, 359 is only 5 seconds away, of course he can do it." realistically, 5 seconds at that speed is a really long way off.Think about Alan webb. In the RW article, it says he ran 4:06 as a sophomore. He didn't run 3:59 until 2 years later. It took Webb 2 years to progress 7 seconds. 5 seconds is not a given for Luke.
lenny stotch wrote:
oh i'm sure he will
4:04 last year basically solo
one year of training, 3:59 for sure.
O! say does that star-spangled wrote:
I know it is tempting to say "he ran 404, 359 is only 5 seconds away, of course he can do it." realistically, 5 seconds at that speed is a really long way off.
Think about Alan webb. In the RW article, it says he ran 4:06 as a sophomore. He didn't run 3:59 until 2 years later. It took Webb 2 years to progress 7 seconds. 5 seconds is not a given for Luke.
Webb also ran 3:53 as a senior. That's 13 seconds.
I think he can do it. He's an aerobic monster, so with proper speed/speed endurance training he can.
Equinox2100 wrote:
Webb also ran 3:53 as a senior. That's 13 seconds.
I think he can do it. He's an aerobic monster, so with proper speed/speed endurance training he can.
Aerobic monster, eh? hmmm... you didn't happen to just read that phrase in a certain Burfoot, LRC recommended read did you? How original...
XCZ wrote:
He will go 3:58, 8:37, 13:32. Additionally 1 other high school runner will break 4, but just barely.
8:37 is a joke for someone who can go 3:58 and 13:32
Considering that 13:32 is 8:40 pace (3200) yeah I think any 13:32 guy is going break 8:37.
Mrr82 wrote:
XCZ wrote:He will go 3:58, 8:37, 13:32. Additionally 1 other high school runner will break 4, but just barely.
8:37 is a joke for someone who can go 3:58 and 13:32
Webb ran like a 4:02 as a junior after that 4:06. LV is 2 second faster hence sub 4:00. Or you can look at Jim Ryun who went from 4:08 to ~3:56 (off 1500m conversion) between soph and junior year. Through in LV had a bunch of injury problems and I give him a decent chance.But it is only a chance. He needs to stay healthy. He needs to be in a fast race in good conditions. And he has to have a good day. A lot of stuff can go wrong. Look at Hatz for an example. 4:05 indoors last year. Didn't run any faster outdoors.
O! say does that star-spangled wrote:
I know it is tempting to say "he ran 404, 359 is only 5 seconds away, of course he can do it." realistically, 5 seconds at that speed is a really long way off.
Think about Alan webb. In the RW article, it says he ran 4:06 as a sophomore. He didn't run 3:59 until 2 years later. It took Webb 2 years to progress 7 seconds. 5 seconds is not a given for Luke.
lenny stotch wrote:oh i'm sure he will
4:04 last year basically solo
one year of training, 3:59 for sure.
Agree that he should (don't think he will though). I think he'll get the 13:32 at Pre, 3:58 at the dream mile, but I don't think he'll have anyone to push him to the record at the NBN 2 mile. Would not be shocked if he did get it though.
I think Webb would have broken 4 in the open mile had he not been injured at the end of his junior year.
hey, what? wrote:
Equinox2100 wrote:Webb also ran 3:53 as a senior. That's 13 seconds.
I think he can do it. He's an aerobic monster, so with proper speed/speed endurance training he can.
Aerobic monster, eh? hmmm... you didn't happen to just read that phrase in a certain Burfoot, LRC recommended read did you? How original...
contrary to your narrow reading list, aerobic monster is a pretty common term in distance running when talking about someone who is, well, an aerobic monster.
I think he should be able to do it, but it would be far harder in a HS-only race. He should pop into Pre classic or something.
The kid you guys should also pay attention to is JACOB BURCHAM. Currently a West Virginian sophomore (and is the normal age for sophomores), ran 4:15.7 in the full mile as a freshman and has improved a LOT since then. Got 16th at NXN this year and got a PR in the XC 5k of 15:05, compared with a 16:34 XC 5k PR his frosh year of XC. His frosh year he was playing football and wasn't really focused on running but now he is and I hear his coach is pretty good. If he stays healthy, there is no reason why he shouldn't be able to bust a 4:05 or 4:06 come spring. I think he's coming out of that phase in your running career where you really start training hard for the first time and your growth is exponential. From what I understand he wasn't exactly doing 80mpw when he ran that 4:15 mile.
Barring anything crazy happening (bad injury, bad illness, overtraining, etc.) I really don't see why he shouldn't be in contention to break Alan Webb's HS record by the time he's a senior. I just hope he can have the good fortune to follow a nice progression....
ken bob wrote:
The kid you guys should also pay attention to is JACOB BURCHAM. Currently a West Virginian sophomore (and is the normal age for sophomores), ran 4:15.7 in the full mile as a freshman and has improved a LOT since then. Got 16th at NXN this year and got a PR in the XC 5k of 15:05, compared with a 16:34 XC 5k PR his frosh year of XC. His frosh year he was playing football and wasn't really focused on running but now he is and I hear his coach is pretty good. If he stays healthy, there is no reason why he shouldn't be able to bust a 4:05 or 4:06 come spring. I think he's coming out of that phase in your running career where you really start training hard for the first time and your growth is exponential. From what I understand he wasn't exactly doing 80mpw when he ran that 4:15 mile.
Barring anything crazy happening (bad injury, bad illness, overtraining, etc.) I really don't see why he shouldn't be in contention to break Alan Webb's HS record by the time he's a senior. I just hope he can have the good fortune to follow a nice progression....
Don't forget his ridiculous triple in track last spring. Something like 1:55 then 4:16 then 9:20 all in one day
he isn't going to be breaking 4:00 this year so i have no interest, maybe next year or as a senior.
Helluva Runner wrote:
he isn't going to be breaking 4:00 this year so i have no interest, maybe next year or as a senior.
Verb will run sub 4 this coming track season. Then he's leaving high school. No joke.