Next American to break 5k Record

Well I think Webb can be ruled out.

10 cents wrote:

Well I think Webb can be ruled out.

only because someone else will break it first, not because he can't go 12:54

Good topic. Your list of candidates seems way too long, but none of them are totally off-base...so I guess that's encouraging for US distance fans.

That being said, I think Solinsky is the clear favorite to break it next.

Here's another question:

Of the above listed runners, who will run the fastest 5K over the course of his career?

I'd guess Fernandez has the fastest when all is said and done (here's hoping this doesn't devolve into a Fernandez thread). An American will go sub 12:50 within 5 years.

Solinsky has been good for a while, but never ran record-breaking times in high school nor college. However, he's always been able to RACE (5 NCAA track titles, 1st in Footlocker and Arcadia 2-mile), and he's stayed so injury free for so long.

Teg and Ritz may or may not catch up with their tendency to get hurt a lot. Jager and Fernandez are running faster at a younger age but are also struggling with injuries.

Rupp has been steadily progressing and hasn't had a bad/injured season since 2006. Derrick has finished no worse than 7th in an NCAA Final, run 13:29 and 13:31 the last 2 years, and has demonstrated to be pretty durable.

Webb's future is a mystery.

Fernandez sucks. sure, he had one pretty good track season. but relative to the potential people assume he has, he sucks. If I had to bet, I'd say he never goes faster than 13:10.

Running 3:39, 3:55, 7:47, 13:25, winning an NCAA title, and finishing 5th in the USATF 5K as a freshman does not equal "suck"

I have a bone to pick, Rupp would not have "likely run sub 13".

You act like sub 13 is just a walk in the park, just because Solinsky makes it look easy doesn't mean anybody can do it. 27:10 is NOT worth a 12:59, especially for a guy like Rupp who is more of a 10k guy. Rupp might might might have run sub 13 in the perfect race, with perfect pacing, nobody trying to take his rail, perfect temperature, but those things are ridiculously unlikely.

Don't make sub 13 seem pedestrian. Rupp is not sub 13 caliber yet.

In keeping with the trend it will be someone completely unexpected (few expected Ritz and no one expected Solinsky). So I'm going to go with Goucher.

Dean Karnazes

Tegenkamp for sure

I figure that Lagat's record stands until at least next year. Most of the big European races are behind us, and almost everyone on that list is either winding their track season down, already training for a fall marathon, or injured/recovering. Once next year rolls around though, it's going to be on. My money is on Dathan if he can stay healthy. At this point, we won't see the record fall by more than 1-2 seconds at any given time, and more than likely they're just going to chip away at it.

The only with sufficiently 1500m speed is Wheating or

perhaps Manzano. One would thing he is too heavy, but so is Solin Chrisky!

Webb had the speed, but he seems to have problems to return to form.

It is more likely than not that no American will go sub 12.50.

Bump

Within this list only a few names will be left still contending at the 2016 olympics

o.O wrote:

Within this list only a few names will be left still contending at the 2016 olympics

True... but don't worry, the crop coming in behind them is just as good!

I'd take Lagat out of the equation... what is he, 38 now? He's not getting any faster...

Jager (13:22), Fernandez (13:25) and Derrick (13:30) are all very talented and young, but are still a bit too far off to take the record within the next couple years.

Wheating isn't a 5k guy, so I'd take him off the list as well.

That leaves Solinsky, Rupp, Ritz, Teg, and Webb... Webb might be too focused trying to make something happen in the 1500 to really take a shot at it, and Ritz needs to get healthy first. If I was a betting man, I'd say Solinsky has the best chance, Teg and Rupp are decent possibilities as well. Maybe we'll have a better idea after Edinburgh :)

Future is Bright wrote:

Lagat - Current record holder, 2nd best mile in world history, numerous championship medals.

This statement is false.

Pray tell?