1) I don't believe the Harvard study because it only looked at a few minutes of running. The difference you'll see between paved vs. trails will be when your legs are tired--your muscles won't be as ready to absorb the shock from the pavement, which is why it's better to be on trails. But I agree about the even surfaces part. A gravel road would be best.
2) See if you can't find a podiatrist with one of those foot force plates and have them do an analysis on your foot (it'll look like this:
http://www.thefootmechanic.com/~footmech/sites/default/files/3DOpic.jpg
) except I bet you'll have a dark red spot under the metatarsal head that is getting injured. Even if you don't trust that podiatrist enough to make you orthotics (best to go to a trusted one who works with runners), it will show why you have so much stress on your 3rd metatarsal.
3) Orthotics will be key to getting over this. I have problems with my first metatarsal head (sesmoiditis though, not stress fractures) and an orthotic with a metatarsal pad makes the difference between me feeling pain at anything over 60mwp and being able to run as much as I want (which has been 100+).
Especially because you were only doing 30mpw, something is very wrong mechanically. You should be able to do 30mpw in clown shoes and not get hurt...