Given the right weather conditions I predict Tadesse will destroy Geb's 2:03:59 - His 58:22 converts to low 2:03:00, and given his strength and capacity he could easily pass through half in 61: high and feel comfortable, especially in a pack with pacers, as opoposed to being on his own like in WR half.
Enjoy it will it still exists Geb, because it is going down hard and would not be surprised by a 2:02: high. That's right you heard it here first!!
I'm gonna say that he won't based on the fact that he had to be really sharp to run that WR a few weeks ago. Can he maintain that same form two weeks from now? Its possible, but highly doubtful in my mind. But what do I know? I'm just someone posting on LR with nothing better to do.
London is shaping up to be immense. Hopefully a record attempt within a competitive race. I would favour Wanjuri to win.
The question with Tadesse and his half-marathon prowess is: Was he even sharp for that WR? None of us know what his prep for that race was. Scary to think it, but he very well could have been in full-blown marathon training mode, aiming at London. If so, and now he's really getting ready for London, yikes.
Doubtful that I'm right onthe money here, but not out of the realm of possibility.
He really should finish a marathon first before we talk WR...
Ultra Man wrote:
given his strength and capacity he could easily pass through half in 61: high and feel comfortable,
That´s the same argument that people who want to see Wariner in the 800 use: "he will pass 400 in 50 and feel comfortable". It´s not that easy.
its not going to happen in London. End of story.
All records get broken (at least men's records) eventually.
I thought Geb's 5 and 10 records were pretty safe for a while.
the alpha and omega male wrote:
its not going to happen in London. End of story.
I doubt he will close the last 6 miles fast enough to break 2:04. Marathon shape is different than 1/2 marathon shape.
But then again, maybe he will get it right this time.
A few more relevant questions (if tadesse does break the world record):
1)how low will it go? 2:03:4x?2:03:3x?
2)what will wanjirus time be in london?
3)how badly will Bekele eradicate every record, 20K-marathon once he moves up to road racing?
I would not be surprised if Bekele goes as low as 2:02:40 or 57:4x. He is an incredible machine.
"and given his strength and capacity he could easily pass through half in 61: high and feel comfortable, especially in a pack with pacers, as opoposed to being on his own like in WR half."
Damn, 61 or even 61:30 through just the half. You'd think he'd like to have pacers through 30k at least. Where are they going to find these guys? Are the race directors going to have to pull in sub-60 half guys for pacers??
The pacers are usually pretty legit in their own right. Last year they went through in 61:30 or so, although I don't remember now how much longer they stayed in the race. I do remember Wanjiru's surge to take the lead for the last time - brutal.
He has trained all along aiming to run the marathon in London, not for the HM.
His coach Jerónimo Bravo and himself decided to take risks and race hard in Lisbon to try to break HM record, and have something at least if London went badly.
The marathon is more impredictable than other races, but he has the training and has the potential. Perhaps it is not the best race to try, though.
watched wrote:
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Damn, 61 or even 61:30 through just the half. You'd think he'd like to have pacers through 30k at least. Where are they going to find these guys? Are the race directors going to have to pull in sub-60 half guys for pacers??
Geb has used Sammy Kosgei a couple times, and I know he has run at least 59:36.
That's the current state of big time marathon running though ... need to be a sub 60 half guy just to be a pacer.
Not the same argument at all if you know the physiology.
Half marathon is an excellent predictor of full marathon performance. Seriously is there anyone < 2:05 who hasn't run near 59' for a half? Start with Tergat and work your way to the present. If you can't approach the WR in the shorter race, you'll have no shot in the longer.
Tadesse may not run 2:03 or 2:04 -- the correlation isn't perfect -- but he will make it interesting and the only folks keeping up with him will be those who can hammer out a damn good half marathon.
You're completely ignoring time as a factor. How many sub 2:06 guys ran their HM best within 6-8 weeks of their marathon best?
Breaking news, pun intended, Martin Lel out of London...
http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/13042010/58/lel-london-marathon.html
Employee #1 wrote:
Breaking news, pun intended, Martin Lel out of London...
http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/13042010/58/lel-london-marathon.html
Welcome to 6.5 hours ago ...
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=3495183But they have been broken only marginally. Here people are fantasizing about sub 2:03!!!!!
Pics?