I'll start with a couple of questions:
1. What is Sully up to so far in 2010? No indoor races? Training going well? Still gonna kick ass at 36yrs young?! :)
2. What about Nate Brannen? Is he on track for a stellar 2010?
And now a prediction:
Simon Bairu will set National Records for 5000m, 10000m and Half Marathon in 2010. You heard it here first. He turned a corner with his 13th place run at WXC.
Sully was injured during the winter, I think. No idea if he's back on track now or not.
Simon Bairu will not set the 5000m record. He will not even come close to it. I'm not even sure he would break 13:30 much less 13:13. He might set the 10,000m record. I wouldn't be surprised there, but I don't think he's going to go for a really fast 10k. He's most likely gearing up for a marathon after his win at Arizona half in a not-Canadian record time.
Skuj wrote:
And now a prediction:
Simon Bairu will set National Records for 5000m, 10000m and Half Marathon in 2010. You heard it here first. He turned a corner with his 13th place run at WXC.
I'll take that bet. There's not way that can happen. Get real.
Agree with these other fellas... no way he breaks those three records. I don't think he has the speed to go after the 5k mark, and to expect all three to fall this year would simply count on too many things going right at exactly the right times.
I do wish him a good year however...
Agreed with the above. Anyone who makes those kinds of predictions is thinking with their heart instead of their head. I would not mind if he proves me wrong, though. But it is such a long shot as to be laughable.
Skuj wrote:
I\'ll start with a couple of questions:
1. What is Sully up to so far in 2010? No indoor races? Training going well? Still gonna kick ass at 36yrs young?! :)
2. What about Nate Brannen? Is he on track for a stellar 2010?
And now a prediction:
Simon Bairu will set National Records for 5000m, 10000m and Half Marathon in 2010. You heard it here first. He turned a corner with his 13th place run at WXC.
1) already answered above
2) recovering from hammy pull late last year
Regarding your prediction: no way. Why put that kind of pressure on the kid? You think he won\'t see this thread or at least hear about it? Let\'s be thankful for what he has done and encourage him to continue to work hard and make some modest gains. He does not need ignorant letsrun posters putting him on some pedestal at this point in his career. Let\'s give him some breathing room and meaningful support.
Skuj wrote:
And now a prediction:
Simon Bairu will set National Records for 5000m, 10000m and Half Marathon in 2010. You heard it here first. He turned a corner with his 13th place run at WXC.
I thought this was an April Fools Day joke until I saw it was posted on March 31. What a dumbass.
So, some of you say yes to sub 27:36, but no way to sub 13:13.
LOL.
1. No one answered correctly
2. No one answered correctly
3. Everyone has answered correctly
I think I read an interview where Simon said he might do a marathon in the fall, and I don't think it's too soon for him to move to the distance.
His HM time should put him in line for the Canadian record, although there's no rush and he shouldn't necessarily aim for it on his first time out.
Oh C'mon!!! I hate real running enough as it is. Now we have to talk about D2 canadian running??????? WTF?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
dumb az skuj wrote:
1. No one answered correctly
2. No one answered correctly
3. Everyone has answered correctly
There were NOT 3 questions. Not so smart now, are ya?
Um....did I miss something, or has SB done low 13:20s, without really racing 5000m very much? Correct me if I am wrong.
this D2 canadian runner just finished 13th at worlds and has rolled your boy ryan hall in the half marathon.
Bairu's 5k pb on his kimbia bio is 13:25
huh? wrote:
this D2 canadian runner just finished 13th at worlds and has rolled your boy ryan hall in the half marathon.
Bairu's 5k pb on his kimbia bio is 13:25
Right! Thank you.
So, what I'm hearing in this thread is "no way" to 13:12, which admittedly is a full second per lap faster than his present pr, but is this inconceiveable after such an epic run at Worlds?
Thing is, a few months ago, he said he wanted top 10 at WXC. That's pretty f***in bold for a "13:25 guy" ain't it? He knows he reached another level. You all will know it too in 2010. And then I'll bump this thread. A lot.
Skuj wrote:
huh? wrote:this D2 canadian runner just finished 13th at worlds and has rolled your boy ryan hall in the half marathon.
Bairu's 5k pb on his kimbia bio is 13:25
Right! Thank you.
So, what I'm hearing in this thread is "no way" to 13:12, which admittedly is a full second per lap faster than his present pr, but is this inconceiveable after such an epic run at Worlds?
Thing is, a few months ago, he said he wanted top 10 at WXC. That's pretty f***in bold for a "13:25 guy" ain't it? He knows he reached another level. You all will know it too in 2010. And then I'll bump this thread. A lot.
The point is whether Simon has the wheels, and is doing anything do develop them. Scheibler, Coolsaet, Bunston and Williams (the other Canadians running 13.22 or faster, apart from Sully and his 3.31 1500) all ran 3.40 for 1500m. Has Simon? just because he trains with guys who can (Teg) doesn't mean that he can. Given his XC exploits over the years, he seems like a distance beast. Perhaps this is why he is contemplating moving to the Marathon as he doesn't have the raw speed (1500m) to be more successful on the track. He can still run well over 10000m (like a Radcliffe), and not be able to put down a much better 5000m. i.e. 13.20 (possible) x 2 + 1min = 27.40, within 4 sec of Scheibler's 27.36, and he could get that down to as low as 45sec. = 27.25. The more prepared he is for the Marathon (if he can handle the mileage), the less likely he will run faster for 5000m (13.20). If Simon doesn't have a great kick (not just a function of raw speed), then that means even fewer rewards for running more 5000's. Unless he does this on the Euopean circuit - little point unless he is prepared to run either like Ritz last summer (and he ran 12.56 after "pacing" his way past guys who went out at 12.30 pace) and can get into these races anyway. The 13th at WXC will help the latter, but doesn't guarantee the former - if he gets dropped at these paces anyway.
This is much like his protege - Mo Ahmed (now at Wisco)- who also doesn't have great speed (3.53 for 1500, while able to run 14.12 for 5000m last year, and is still a Junior again this year), but will likely move to the longer distances much as has Simon. It also comes down to a sprint kick as well - something Mo doesn't normally have, but also hasn't been necessary in most of his distance races, although will as competition gets tougher as he gets older.
Great post free-willy. Thank you for it.
In my defense, my wording was ambiguous (on purpose).
I said Bairu won't come close to the 5k record. I meant that for this year. He could possibly pull a Ritz and get down under 13:20 if he stops training for marathons to work on his speed. I don't think that's out of the question, although I do think it's unlikely. In 2010 I think he will not.
I said I think the 10k record is within his reach. But I don't think he's going to aim for a fast 10k during a marathon buildup. If he runs one in the next month or two I could see the record falling, but most likely he will be in the 28-29min range if he's in the middle of a buildup. Probably next year or the year after before he takes it down (I say he will). He was on pace for low 27:30s at Stanford last year (I think that's where it was) and lost it on the last two laps to run something in the 27:50s. With marathon training extending his endurance I don't see why he wouldn't be able to do it.
Coolsaet has a similar 10k best and with two far less than ideal buildups (and a really warm Berlin) ran 2:16. I think with a proper buildup, plus the 62 at Arizona under him, Bairu can go a couple of minutes faster than that (and so can Coolsaet). [Speaking of Arizona, Ryan Hall ran really slow compared to his usual. I think he may be looking at a very good Boston race.]
Gillis has a slightly slower 10k time than either of them and he went just under 2:14 in his debut. No reason Bairu won't be faster than that.
The half marathon record shouldn't happen during a marathon buildup, so I don't think he will get it this year unless he waits until next spring to do his first marathon. I think he will do a marathon this fall, then gear up for cross country again.
The marathon record is 2:10, and I think he'll go between 2:10 and 2:13. I don't think he'll get the record his first time out.
Anyway, all conjecture. We'll see what happens when it happens.
on his twitter page he says he's going for the 10,000m record at stanford. should be interesting to see if he gets it. I'm predicting 27:33!
So that will be in the next month or two. I think he will take it.
How is Tim Konoval doing?