Bolt vs. Bekele in exhibition being discussed!

i'd like to see them make one long 650m track down 5th avenue

The main problem with peoples thinking is that both will go out as hard as they can and the sprinter will tie up at 400m. But both athletes aren't retarded either, so I'm sure they'd both be conservative in their racing methods over 400m.

Bekele could probably pop a sub 55, but what the hell is he going to do for the next 200m?

And if Bolt Busts a 44 what is he going to do for the next 200m?

If it came down to it, I'm sure Bolt could take of and run a 19.50, walk until Bekele was within 50m and do another 21, walk and rinse and repeat.

[quote]o.O wrote:

Bekele could probably pop a sub 55...

[\quote]

Really? This is as much credit as you're willing to give him over 600m?

So does Bolt still start in the blocks?

Its not the front page now, and Bekele himself is expressing doubts about 600m and Bolt says "I think I am pretty good at 600 meters."

I think they're both overestimating Bolt's stamina. If this thing goes off at 700 meters, Bolt has no chance. At 60 seconds in his chest will implode, and his legs will cease and desist. He'll get gapped and pull up without even trying to run hard through the finish.

First of all, I say no slower than 48 flat for Bekele in an open 400.

Second, Bolt's relatively unimpressive 400 PR compared to his extraterrestrial 100 and 200 times suggests that aerobic capacity is not his forte.

Given these factors, I think anything over 600-650m is a SURE THING for Bekele. I think Bekele could definitely make 500 interesting, but 550 might be about the fairest distance.

I wonder how they'll ever agree on a fair distance. Neither athlete will want to feel at a disadvantage going in. Maybe they'll settle on 586 meters or something.

Would Bolt really consider anything other than sit and kick? The article makes it sound as if he'd go out hard, but why would he do that?

A 600 would be Juantorena's dream race. I wonder how badly he would beat them both at that distance?

strategy wrote:

Would Bolt really consider anything other than sit and kick? The article makes it sound as if he'd go out hard, but why would he do that?

A 600 would be Juantorena's dream race. I wonder how badly he would beat them both at that distance?

Sit and kick he has no chance. In the final stages of the race, more and more of his energy will have to come from aerobic respiration, an area in which even I'm ahead of Bolt. He would want to use his speed to build up a lead during the early part of the race when most of his energy is being produced anaerobically, and hope that his lead is sufficient enough to hold off Bekele at the end. Something like a 46-47 second first 400m for Bolt and hold on like hell, hoping for a final 200m around 33, which I think would get ugly in the last 80m. Bekele would be better suited for trying to hold 52 pace the whole way.

I really can't see a 9.6 guy having enough aerobic capacity to be better than Bekele in a 600m. If Bolt's training is geared more towards 400m, then it would be a lot more interesting.

The 700 would be the best distance. It would be 4 straights and 3 turns. Run the first straight and turn in lanes, then go for it.

700 is short and fast enough that they would not be able to turn it into a tactical race.

It is also such a non-standard distance that the Letsrun crowd would spend months speculating what their 800 time would have been.

If it happens, my money is on it being 600m. It's a round number and each athlete, in the article, sounded like it was a fair distance.

Bolt will either go all out from the start, betting that Bekele simply can't run the time that Bolt can, or he hangs back in contact with Bekele to out kick him at the end. I say the former strategy is Bolt's best chance. Bolt has never had to learn how to accelerate to a finish - mentally or physically, whereas that is Bekele's forte.

I think they should make it 500m and run it in Ethiopia on a dirt track at altitde. Barefoot.

that unimpressive 400 pr you speak of he ran when he was 16....when he wants to do the work, if he does he will be a 44 low guy at worst!

are you guys mad? how can anyone in their right mind say bekele can't break 50. he can close in 51 at the end of a sub 13:00 5k. I know a number of great US distance guys and the best they can close a comfortable paced 5k in is 55/56. They all have run at least 49 in the open 400. No matter how fresh you are you will still be a good 4 or 5 seconds off your best open 400.

and don't forget bekele is a 3:32 guy. I was a 3:41 guy and knew a number of guys around that level. Everyone I knew could run 49/48. The 3:36 guys: 47.

I don't know anyone as quick as bekele, but if you just look at it mathematically and extrapolate from these examples, he really should be able to run 46. it is a whole different level to run 45. but 46 high. two 23. somethings is not unrealistic for bekele.

I'm not going to go into what I think he could run for 600. but please give this guys a bit more respect. I think the distance needs to slightly favor bolt, because he will give up if he really starts to hurt, bekele will not.

wooosh wrote:

I don't know anyone as quick as bekele, but if you just look at it mathematically and extrapolate from these examples, he really should be able to run 46. it is a whole different level to run 45. but 46 high. two 23. somethings is not unrealistic for bekele.

(To preface this: I'm not saying that ventolin's calculator is that accurate. I just am giving information.)

Just for fun, I stuck your 400m prediction for KB in with his 10,000m world record in ventolin's calculator. Below are its predictions for a guy that can run 47s for 400m and 26:17.53 for 10,000m.

600m - 1:13.54 (WR 1:12.81)

800m - 1:40.93 (WR 1:41.11)

1000m - 2:08.96 (WR 2:11.96)

1500m - 3:21.04 (WR 3:26.00)

1 Mile - 3:37.11 (WR 3:43.13)

2000m - 4:35.25 (WR 4:44.79)

3000m - 7:08.09 (WR 7:20.67)

2 Miles - 7:42.13 (WR 7:58.61)

5000m - 12:25.42 (WR 12:37.35)

Looks like KB is seriously underperforming relative to his ability.

In all seriousness, Bekele's best 400m speed is probably something like 50-51s, and he's probably good for a 1:18-1:19 600m and a 1:47 800m. Anecdotal evidence based on the 400m PRs of a few college 1500m runners with relatively poorly developed aerobic systems (compared to an elite distance runner) is not a valid basis for predicting the sprinting ability of the world's best distance runner.

And before anyone tells me that he's closed 5000's in 51 before, let me say that his best verified last lap is 52.28 in a 13:48 race.