well if the top 5k runners stick with it and actually show up to race, i think the fastest heat will end with the following guys finishing in an order somewhat like this:
sam chelanga
alistair cragg
matt tegenkamp
bolota asmerom
scott bauhs
kurt benninger
scott overall
there are some really good collegiate runners this year who could and already have started turning heads. a lot of them havent run an outdoor 5k yet, but i think chris derrick, luke puskedra, michael coe, chris rombough, german fernandez, and maybe a few other guys could run between 13:20-13:35 right ow. there are also some guys like seth summerside, andrew lemoncello, stephen pifer, and other post-collegiate-just-turned-pro-types who could run something in that same time window, between 13:20-13:40.
i put chelanga above the rest because a.) rupp's not in the field, and b.) he ran 13:19 indoors over 2 months ago. i think cragg could hold his own, and possibly beat him, but i haven't seen anything from cragg as of late to make me definitely believe that. later in the summer, sure, but as soon as this weekend? i don't know about that.
also, some of the runners on that list ran 5k's last weekend, like shadrack kiptoo-biwott, who ran 13:36, so i doubt he would be running another fast paced 5k as soon as a week later. on the other hand, there are some guys who ran well at mt. sac a couple weeks ago who might be ready to taste an A standard qualifying time so they're good for the rest of the season. wouldn't be surprised to see cabada show up either, king cobra in hand post-race.
my bets are tegenkamp, cragg, asmerom, and bauhs show up to race. maybe chelanga, burrell, benninger, carney, vaughn, tarpy, riley, summerside, and a few others for the top heat, but i'm thinking we're going to see teg, cragg, asmerom, bauhs, and maybe 2-3 others pushing the pace come saturday night. i ought to drive up and watch it myself.
p.s. - disclaimer: there are almost 100 guys on that list, so if i didn't mention your favorite dark horse as of late, i'm not sorry. i imagine there's a matt centrowitz or christo landry in there who'll run something phenomenally unexpected. if they actually commit.