Predictions for Ritz at London?

Not An Expert wrote:

Bad day- 2:10:30+

Ok day- 2:10:29-2:09:15

Good day- 2:09:14-2:08:00

Great day- sub-2:08

He's not that experienced a marathoner yet, and London is though on guys without experience who aren't fast enough to go out with the lead group's annual near-WR pace. How many Americans have run 2:07:59 or faster?

Same number as it will be on Monday - two.

Montesquieu wrote:

And how does one get to read Mary Wittenberg's twitter feed?

Get a twitter account, and then . . .

Merci bien

I really have been having a good laugh at the posts here. Thank you. Very entertaining.

I love the time lists with comparisons between different running eras and on different courses.

Do you really think comparing Boston to London is something anyone should be doing?

Fact of the matter is is that Hall and Ritz represent a couple of promising American marathoners. We only have the sponsors to blame for not having another dozen guys running sub 2:12 or better, and another 50-100 guys running sub 2:20 with a few developing into sub 2:10 guys.

Your either in great with sponsorship or left to fend for yourself with a full time job. There needs to be a better tiered system to help our distance guys continue to develop after college. Not that college coaches are always looking out for their athletes long term development in the first place.

How can you say Ritz is in comparable shape and ability as Hall?Before Hall's debut marathon in 2007, he ran 59:45 in the half. Ritz ran 1:01:XX.Hall LED in his debut marathon at 30KM under warm condition and eventually ran 2:08Hall ran 2:06 when it was windy and he went out with the lead group from the gun. And people keep bringing up the stupid Olympic argument.Until Ritz starts to do one of the above achievement that Hall has done, don't try to compare two different levels of running.If Ritz ran with the second pacer group and ran 2:08, this put him at Hall's level in 2007. If Ritz ran 2:06 and went with the lead group, then let's start the Hall and Ritz comparison. It is stupid to keep saying he is in 2:06 shape when he has not done anything remotely close to this level of running. Realistically, looks for 2:08 - 2:09 for Ritz. If he can do that, it would be a good day for him. Let's hope he proves me wrong.

Chapman wrote:

I think ritzs shape and ability is comparable to halls (nothing in their early careers has indicated otherwise and ritz has shown more prowess over shorter distances) but ritz has never run a full out time trial marathon and I think hell need a more conservative approach and next time...assuming he stays healthy and trains well, weill be able to go out faster, hopefully with the lead group...

You can compare times all you like. But they will always be secondary to head to head competition.

Hall vs. Ritz 1-1

When you see that a friend or competitor ran a faster 10k on the road somewhere do you really feel like he just beat you?

[quote]TorontoObserver wrote:

How can you say Ritz is in comparable shape and ability as Hall?

Before Hall's debut marathon in 2007, he ran 59:45 in the half. Ritz ran 1:01:XX.

Hall LED in his debut marathon at 30KM under warm condition and eventually ran 2:08

Hall ran 2:06 when it was windy and he went out with the lead group from the gun.

And people keep bringing up the stupid Olympic argument.

Until Ritz starts to do one of the above achievement that Hall has done, don't try to compare two different levels of running.

If Ritz ran with the second pacer group and ran 2:08, this put him at Hall's level in 2007. If Ritz ran 2:06 and went with the lead group, then let's start the Hall and Ritz comparison. It is stupid to keep saying he is in 2:06 shape when he has not done anything remotely close to this level of running.

Realistically, looks for 2:08 - 2:09 for Ritz. If he can do that, it would be a good day for him. Let's hope he proves me wrong.

quote]

fair enough i dont think ritz is quite at the level hall was at when he ran 2:06 but i dont think the difference is as great as some people seem to think

the main thing i was arguing against though is the idea that the best thing for ritz to do is going out with wanjiru with the intent of dyin to a 2:06...thats a way to not finish a marathon and ruin 6 months of preparation

based off of ritzs early career and his recent marathon performances on slow courses (granted with limited knowledge of his recent training) I expect ritz to be in about 2:07 mid shape on a good day...i dont think ritz would show up if he was in at least this shape and despite the general biased opinion on this board he and his coach always seem to show up solidly when it counts...

and if memory serves correctly (which it may not) i think hall went out with the 2nd group when he ran 2:08 and moved up to the lead pack mid race

which he later said was just do to a little of over excitement and probably cost him a little bit

You have been hanging out in that pot thread haven't you - obviously, you must be smoking something.They haven't shown up when it counts ... good god man, what is wrong with you? Is 2:11 showing up? Is getting whooped by a miler in "your event" the 10k "showing up"? Is getting your ass handed to you by Alan Culpepper - only months before retirement showing up? Is showing up when it counts, dodging the biggest distance running event of the year? Blah, blah, blah - you have no freakin' clue whatsoever.

Chapman wrote:

he and his coach always seem to show up solidly when it counts...

If he runs the same course as me (ie. Houston HM) and does it 2 minutes faster, then yes, he is faster than me. Tomorrow will be the true test, and I hope Ritz does live up to the comparison. It'd be great to have 2 2:06 guys.

[quote]ACova wrote:

You have been hanging out in that pot thread haven't you - obviously, you must be smoking something.

They haven't shown up when it counts ... good god man, what is wrong with you? Is 2:11 showing up? Is getting whooped by a miler in "your event" the 10k "showing up"? Is getting your ass handed to you by Alan Culpepper - only months before retirement showing up? Is showing up when it counts, dodging the biggest distance running event of the year? Blah, blah, blah - you have no freakin' clue whatsoever.

quote]

the "miler" who "whooped" him did it while running the fastest american 10k debut in history...the fact that ritz was outkicked by this guy (who on top of this type of aerobic fitness had far superior footspeed and was obviously too sharp for this race judging by how the rest of his season went) does not mean that ritz didnt have a solid day...he pred for godsake...webb just ran out of his mind (webb has shown to be adept at every distance from 800 to marathon so saying its an embarassment to lose to him just because hes a miler a miler is idiotic)

running 2:11 qualifying for the olympic team solidly (with a 3min pr) on a very hily course then beating they guy who beat you finishing 9th in the world while stopping and walking due to cramps (again in low 2:11) pring every time youve run the marathon is showing up...yes

losing to culpepper...no that was a little bit of an off day for ritz but the guy who was a few months away from retirement also beat a 13:10 guy and a 27:42 guy who made the olympic 10000 team last year...

also culpepper trained at altitude where the race was at when ritz had switched to a sea level location...do you think culpepper would have beaten ritz if tey had both gone to worlds?

dodging the biggest running event of the year...huh? well bekele, geb, and wanjiru werent there so ill let you know when i find their email addresses and you can lecture them too

im not saying ritz rises to a new level and kills everyone on big days but he rarely blows up and tends to run solidly what hes been capable of...which i think would be a mid-high 2:07 or low 2:08...

you have no clue

change the "marathon" part about what webb has showin himself to be adept at to 10000 (though i bet well see a sub 2:11 from him someday if he wants it and gets back to form)

shall i continue my list?

sure...

since i dont feel like waiting around all day...

the one time i can think of ritz really blowing up in a big race where he fit and expected to do well (the us cross where he ost to hall and got 4th he had proven walking pneumonia but counts if you are one of those fans who are always suspicious of any health problems the athletes you are supposed to support has)

is world cross when he ended up in the 60s losing to withrow i believe?

that was a true, undeniable blowup and im not saying ritz is immune to it...

everyone has bad days though, geb had them, bekele, has them, hall has them, wanjiru has them...the point is to show up on enough day to outweigh them, which so far id say ritz has

Given the fine expected weather and given how much better Ritz's running economy looks due to the strengthening work on his left hip--compare the Flotrack workout from last week and the one just before the Olympic Trials--I'm going for 2:07:31.

2:08:16

2:07:53

Ritz

2:07:19

Meb

2:08:45