Could Fernandez Break Rono's 13:08 NCAA Outdoor 5000m Record And/Or Alistair Cragg's 7:38 NCAA Outdoor 3k Record?

He certainly could break those records by his senior year. Try using your shift key more often, you've got two of them for poop's sake.

I think he definitely will... eventually

Stuff happens. In 1992 I thought Trautmann was going to be the next great american 5k guy. He had the pure leg speed that Kennedy lacked and was strong. Then he hurt a toe and that was never the same.But lets hope German turns into the 3:50 miler that you need to be to be a good 5k man.

JP42984 wrote:

I think he definitely will... eventually

irun wrote:

depending on how this season goes, i'd say fernandez has a shot. hall ran 13:22, mcdougal ran 13:20, and vaughn ran 13:18. and i don't believe any of those guys ever had german's speed or power, but i feel comfortable in saying that fernandez has the aerobic system and the strength to at least bust out a sub-13:20 before his senior year(assuming he keeps running in college that long).

he ran 7:59 last year as a freshman, so in order to break cragg's record he would have to take off at least 20 seconds from his current pr, which was en-route to an 8:34 2-mile.

i would've raised the question of rono's 3kSC ncaa record, 8:05, but that would just be rediculous.

he very well may, but I would not be surprised to see rupp, have a crack at 13:08 first. He really has not run in many fast 5K's over the past couple seasons and he is on a whole new level. hall and dobson hit 13:15 & 13:16 at NCAA's and I do not think they were near Rupp's fitness level at that point.

I really hope he goes after a good 5k a couple times this year. German has the natural tools to do it, but hasn't proved enough on the college/elite level except his obvious potential. If he stays healthy he should be phenomenal. I'd love to see German take a stab at a two mile under 8:00 in the future, but for now that is really reaching.

Rono was a damn stud.

Yes!

Question is whether he'll stay healthy enough to do so. Oh, and whether he'll be in college long enough ...

Watch out for Ulrey at the UW invite in the 3k

Sure, Fernandez is going to run 13:07 this year. He may not be on drugs, but you sure are.

wer234 wrote:

Sure, Fernandez is going to run 13:07 this year. He may not be on drugs, but you sure are.

great post.

does anyone know what event he plans on running at nationals? what about outdoor?

I'm curious as to what makes you think Hall's legspeed wasn't comparable to German's... he ran a 3:42 1500 which is about equal to German's 4:00 1600 at the California state meet. I think German's double was more impressive as a whole, of course, and I'm not in any way saying Hall was the better HS runner. But to say that German has speed that Hall lacked just doesn't add up in my mind.

Umm, German just showed us all that he has more leg speed than Hall or Rupp. Has Hall even run a sub 4 yet in his career (not counting 1500 equivalents)? And Rupp has struggled on multiple occasions trying to hit sub 4. German just did it indoors, with room to spare. He doesn't need any more mile speed to run sub 13:10.

However, I don't think he actually will do that this year in the 5K. He has the speed, but I doubt his aerobic system is mature enough. It's important to keep in mind that the guys who are running 13:10s are also running 8:15 2-miles. I don't see German showing that kind of improvement in one year. 13:20 is definitely within range though.

past performance does not predict future success.

german has yet to win anything of note...well beaten at footlocker and dropped out of the NCAA xc...frequently injured.

re 13;08...i would not be surprised if he never runs this fast...hans jorg kunze ran 7;56 for 3000 m as a 16 yo...improved to 13;10.40.

as a 17 yo, lindgren ran 8;40 on a tiny indoor board track (11-12 laps/mile)...comparable to 8;34 outdoors...he improved to 12;53 3 mile...~13;18 for 5000m

hans grodotzki wrote:

as a 17 yo, lindgren ran 8;40 on a tiny indoor board track (11-12 laps/mile)...comparable to 8;34 outdoors...he improved to 12;53 3 mile...~13;18 for 5000m

Lindgren and Fernandez cannot really be compared. Sure, their high school times are similar, but Lindgren was running 150 mile weeks in high school and training like crazy. Fernandez was VERY much undertrained in high school. For most of his career he alternated between basketball, running and being injured. It was not until his senior year that he trained consistently and still no more than 50-60 miles per week.

.Frank the Tank. wrote:

wer234 wrote:

Sure, Fernandez is going to run 13:07 this year. He may not be on drugs, but you sure are.

great post.

does anyone know what event he plans on running at nationals? what about outdoor?

The marathon.

i said by his senior year, if he stays in college that long. read my post more thoroughly next time.

Your thoughts on German's 1:09:45 half marathon 2 years ago (while he was 16!!) despite starting at 6:30 pace?

He's an aerobic freak.

In his interview, didn't he say he did 10x400 at 62-high/63-high with 100 jog and basically considered it part of his "base?" He'd need to be right at 63 per lap to break 13:08. Still a tough call for this year, though.

I believe Fernandez will be capable of a 13:07 and 7:37 for outdoors but unfortunately I dont see him getting an opportunity to chase those times for either event. The closest to a fast race I see him getting to run is maybe the top 5000 section at the Cardinal but even that is usually high 13:1x. If he makes the world champs team then maybe at Berlin or something though...

I say German runs 13:31 this spring with a 3:38 to boot!

My prediction is that German will break the collegiate 5k and 10k records, possibly by the end of the 2010 season.

And I'm picking German for the victory the next time there's a match up with Rupp.

Predictions for 2009 with fast enough races

5k- 13:07.4

10- 27:22.8

ughhh wrote:

Umm, German just showed us all that he has more leg speed than Hall or Rupp.

The mile doesn't demonstrate/require as much pure leg speed as the 800. Rupp's 1:51 (Webb only opened with 1:52), and then the kick to win the mile off the snail pace 30 minutes later, is a better indicator of speed.