2008 NCAA D1 XC Predictions

Cool predictions. Overall pretty solid I feel. But I do have a couple of comments/questions.

No Colorado runners in the top 58?

Magg only at 58th?

No Kenny Klotz or Mercado?

No way in Hell Lowe is top 20. Not in a 10k.

Mead not in the top 10?

Kiptoo at 16th even with the way he has ran this year? Hope you're right.

Once again, cool predictions. Will be an exciting last mile!

No Ben True?

Thanks for the leg work. I would guess that both Eagon and Withrow will run better at Nationals. Eagon was running tentatively after being a race-time decision on competing at Big Tens because of tweaking a knee. Withrow has only been in regular training since September and three more weeks will make more of a difference for him. In addition, he probably 'trained through' the meet more to prep for Nationals and, once he was not needed for 5th he probably knew he could back off a bit (there was no 'Withrow kick' which seems to be there when he needs it to pick off one or two guys (a la FL).

However, it is a long way up from 199 to 155. A relevant question is: what difference will the shift up to 10K make. For UW, Peacock, Wagner and Withrow have all run good track 10,000s, and it is right up Eagon's alley as well (has always finished well at Nationals). As milers, Miller and Bolas are likely to see some drop off. On the whole, this is a better distribution of long/short guys than UW has had in a while, where the move up has hurt them.

Chelanga will most likely be an individual qualifier and not part of a qualifying team, thus he will not be a factor in team scoring.

That means if your predictions hold true, Oklahoma State will score 1 point better and be tied with Oregon at the top!!! Tie breaker time!!!

I think you have forgotten Mark Korir from Wyoming. He finished 19th in 2007 and 22nd in 2006. He's also the Mountain West Conference Champion.

Good questions. Jordan Kyle and Chris Pannone of Colorado were 8th and 9th at Big 12. The gap after 7th place Kiel Uhl was enough to push them out of my list. I don't know the runners that well, but there's always a good chance for them to improve by nationals.

Klotz just didn't place high enough at PAC 10. If he improves at Regionals he'll make the list for sure. Diego Mercado didn't run. I don't know if he's injured or what. We'll find out soon enough. He could be the deciding factor of whether Oregon wins or not.

Mead might make top 10, but the guys ahead of him are no chopped liver either. Hard to say!

Colby Lowe seems to surpass expectations every time he runs. I'm done underestimating him. Derrick vs. Puskedra will be interesting. When Derrick ran 13:55 solo in April, I figured he had a decent chance for Rupp's record in the summer. He ran 8:48 after, supposedly when he was already showing symptoms of mono. Had he stayed healthy, I think he might have at least broken 8:40 at NON. Puskedra has heart, and has definitely made progress since his valiant 8:47 second place at NON. As I noted in another thread, Derrick came on strong at the end, with a 6:22.27 split, while Puskedra was 6:28.98. Rupp's was 6:17.81. I think Derrick will have more gas in a 10K.

More commentary on team predictions:

http://www.trackshark.com/features/ben/268/The+Meat+Grinder%3A+Weekend+Recap+

(Conference+Edition).html

WYO Fan wrote:

I think you have forgotten Mark Korir from Wyoming. He finished 19th in 2007 and 22nd in 2006. He's also the Mountain West Conference Champion.

You are totally right. Korir (24:22) will likely be anywhere between 11th and 17th. I knew I'd miss someone important. Festus Kigen (24:25) of TCU Stephen Shay (24:26) of BYU will likely be in the mix in top 50 too.

adffy wrote:

No Ben True?

Another mistake, thanks. I don't know why I thought Maag won Heps. True dominated that race in 23:59 to Maag's 24:32. I originally had 24:07, I don't know where that came from. I'd put True between 30th and 35th.

Good solid points!

I'd put Bumbalough higher - 22nd last year, and since he's run big PRs from 1500 to 5K and run the 2nd fastest 8K ever on Van Cortland. I'd put Smyth further up too as he was 15th last year and is running great this year.

You be may overestimating freshmen and milers over 10K - German, Puskedra, Derrick, Lowe, Heath, Wheating, Bolas to name some that may place further back.

3 freshmen in the top 10? This class is one of the greatest, but this likely won't happen.

Rombough and Mead should be higher, they've been running great and should do even better over 10K.

These lists are fun to put together and nitpick over!

Why is Kipchumba so low when he beat Puskedra (and everyone but Kinsella) at Dellinger? And where's Betterbed and Frerker? Portland doesn't run varsity guys at WCC's if that's what's throwing you off, Kinsella was the exception this year. Go have a look at the Dellinger results again.

Those two guys you mention (betterbed and Frerker)are good but I don't see to many people on that list they would be sure favorites over.

I agree that Frerker is pretty borderline for this list, but as has already been said, go look at the Dellinger results. Betterbed beat Tyson David(!), Suver, Centrowitz, Kutingala, Bor, Shackleton, and Kirwa who are all on this list. He was 12 seconds behind Puskedra, 6 seconds behind Maiyo, and 4 seconds behind Kiptoo-Biwott. Eyeballing the list that puts him somewhere in the mid-20's.

http://www.goducks.com/pdf5/144824.pdf?ATCLID=1596458&SPID=238&DB_OEM_ID=500&SPSID=4337

The list is mainly based on conference performances. I'll do a final list after Regionals.

smyth and bumbalough are gonna be finishing in the top 20..

Nice info on Betterbed. Opened my eyes that is for sure. Wasn't as familiar with him as I was with Frerker.

To answer the question if I'm new to NCAA XC, not really. I ran Div III nearly 20 years ago, and had some friends in Div I. I've followed it off and on over the years. Earlier this spring the promising group of high school seniors perked my interest, as it shows some hope that U.S. distance running will get more talent and gradually get stronger on the world stage. I think it's great that there's so many Africans and other international students in the NCAA, to give the Americans a taste of real competition.

Quality live web coverage and commentary seems to be helping the growing interest in the sport too.

What about Samuel Kosgei from Lamar? He beat Francis Kasagule by 18 seconds. You only have Francis 41st, but he finished 29th in 06, and 24th in 07.

Seems to be a bit of a west coast bias on this. 15 individuals from the West Region in the top 50...that's not going to happen.