from "the week that was:"
It should be interesting to watch over the next few weeks. Webb fans can take heart in this: last year, he opened up outdoors in 3:57.93 on April 7th in Furman. Three weeks later, he ran 3:51.71 at Drake. The first round of the men's 1,500 at the US Olympic Trials is on July 3rd - three weeks and four days from Sunday.
If Webb run the 1500 equivalent to last years 2nd race of 3:51.71 approx...3:35. I say he makes the Oly Team.
thats a very good point
also I think one has to discount his early road racing adventures....not only did he have food poisoning, which would immediately discount he performances, but he was also racing what, 8k? and 5k? his race is less than a third of a 5k and less than a fifth of an 8k.....and its on a track.....so off his performance at pre, OP is right on......I think what will be more important is his kick....so time will tell
at Furman there was a whole lot of wind and it was very cold. That time was worth faster.
he will have to keep the races honest at trials. if he allows the races to become sit and kick (run 55 last 400 to run 3:45-46) then he could be in trouble. i think going out to run relatively even 3:35-37 will be his best bet.
uh_no wrote:
also I think one has to discount his early road racing adventures....not only did he have food poisoning, which would immediately discount he performances,
Plus, I heard that Webb wasn't getting a lot of sleep before those performances. I also heard that Webb had been really stressed.
but he was also racing what, 8k? and 5k? his race is less than a third of a 5k and less than a fifth of an 8k
It's true. Also, the 1,500 meters--which is the race he'll actually be running at the trials--is about 6% shorter than the mile he just ran.
.....and its on a track.....so off his performance at pre, OP is right on.
What's more, the 1500 meter final at the trials will be around 6 p.m. The mile at Pre was around 2:30 p.m. The later start will be to Webb's advantage.
you need to gamble to be great.
he is taking a calculated gamble his talent will prevail at trials.
his entire season, let alone last 2 + years has been designed for Beijing. if he plans to medal there, finishing top 3 in the lonely US trials should be a joke, even off strength
why, with 1:43 speed, is he in trouble if he has to kick a 55 at the end of the OT 1500?
it's interesting, at first, i thought that Webb would be in trouble as many here did. and then while running on my own, i was thinking about my typical track seasons of the past, and those of my athletes whom i coach:
outdoor: starts in March, ends in May, approximately 10-12 weeks of racing, with conference usually at the end of April.
Alan Webb is on a similar scale: his "national champs" happens to be the olympics in about 10 weeks, and his conference meet is in about 3-4 weeks. given the fact that he's a world class runner with a world class coach, i think i'd leave the training up to him, and be thankful that i'm not coaching him--with all that pressure and expectations.
he'll be fine and will make the team and will do well in China.
well...... wrote:
if he allows the races to become sit and kick (run 55 last 400 to run 3:45-46) then he could be in trouble.
I've got news: if the field goes through in 2:50-2:51 for *1100* meters--and at that ~62/400m pace, essentially the whole field would be there--then it will take something considerably faster than a 55 to make the team.
unrated wrote:
at Furman there was a whole lot of wind and it was very cold. That time was worth faster.
This actually makes the OPs point. If Webb just follows last years improvement from first to second race, he is in the same position: 3:35ish. If, indeed, the 3:57 is worth faster under different conditions, how much faster? 3:55.47? anyway, unlike "Spyders Webb", who predicts Webb will suck all the time and as long as Webb comes in second or further back can claim he was right, I see a potentially bright summer ahead. Alan may not be a good tactician, but he is a good miler. the season isnt over just yet.
wow. a thread not devoted to second guessing webb or bashing him for not "dispatching" the field at pre with a 3:45 mile. He is going for the olympics, period.
Guys like Lomong may be potential great U.S. runners but he has been running in competition for what 2-3 months and has to get himself through 2 rounds to make the US final, something he has never done.
Webb has done this 3 times, and won 3 times.
There may be some good milers in the US other than Lagat and Webb but none of them are in the same league as these 2.
The only spot open on the US 1500m team is the 3rd one. No one will beat Lagat or Webb for first or second. Come on for God's sake Webb ran 3:34 to win the last US championships. You really think 2 or more guys will be able to run this fast or faster after the first 2 rounds?
Not happening.
It will be Lagat, Webb, and ?
Stop calling it the Oly team! It's the freakin' Olympics!
Why are people's opinions of Webb so polar? In one camp you have the delusional, desperate fans who are grasping for any rationalization they can to make them feel better about Webb's sub par performances this season. They are quoting all kinds of random stats and hear-say in a desperate attempt to prove that Webb is, in fact, right on track for an Olympic medal.
In the other camp you have the haters who wouldn't admit Webb was a good runner if he won gold this year and set a world record in the process. "That was a fluke! He's on drugs! The field was just weak this year! Webb is Beelzebub!"
For the love of God, people. Be rational. Webb has had a few shitty races/no-shows this year and his fitness is questionable. He's got a good shot at making the Olympic team, but his chances are in doubt this year more so than in recent years. If he makes the team he'll probably be sharper for the Olympics since he'll have an extra month to get things on track, so maybe he'll be alright. That's about all we know. So let's just wish him luck and root him on as he faces uncertainty.
back at ya! YOU are claiming a crappy year when hes been on the track once. Im not being delusional about a seventh place finish, but i am optimistic about his time. Im not trying to read into the "deer in the headlights" look like others are doing. His time for race number one was respectable. His ability to improve over the next three weeks is reasonable to expect. How is that unreasonable? I will be happy to run a sub-par 3:55 mile someday.
Of course this is right.
Detractors are mainly road racers who dont understand peaking during a track season. Its fleating and must be timed where the peak only seems to last about 3 weeks. Sure, some can run well for up to 2 months, but that is rare and questionable. One thing I know for sure is that no one can say based on his 3:55 that he's running poorly and wont be running faster.
outlaw wrote:
it's interesting, at first, i thought that Webb would be in trouble as many here did. and then while running on my own, i was thinking about my typical track seasons of the past, and those of my athletes whom i coach:
outdoor: starts in March, ends in May, approximately 10-12 weeks of racing, with conference usually at the end of April.
Alan Webb is on a similar scale: his "national champs" happens to be the olympics in about 10 weeks, and his conference meet is in about 3-4 weeks. given the fact that he's a world class runner with a world class coach, i think i'd leave the training up to him, and be thankful that i'm not coaching him--with all that pressure and expectations.
he'll be fine and will make the team and will do well in China.
this sort of opinion totally disregards the fact that all of his rivals (save perhaps Mehdi Baala) are racing in pretty solid form right now. it's not as if Lagat doesn't know how to train to peak at the Olympics. webb is in trouble, big trouble, and if he doesn't make the squad, serious doubt should be cast on last year's accomplishments. he hasn't admitted to any injury, so there's no real explanation for his pitiful performance so far. i hope he proves me wrong, though.
what were his splits?
[quote]curious as george wrote:
webb is in trouble, big trouble, and if he doesn't make the squad, serious doubt should be cast on last year's accomplishments. [quote]
Please explain to me again how webb is in "big trouble" from running ONE race on the track! how does this years ONE result cast doubt on last years accomplishments if he doesn't make the squad? The Webb camp is silent, as far as I can see, on where they are in training or what they are planning, but casting the whole of the 2008 season as a disgrace after one race seems a little ambitious to me.
I would like the coach to come out and discuss stuff with the world but it doesnt seem important enough to them. That can mean more things than alan being in big trouble. I will be more interested in the 800 result on the 14th than what the boards say right now. the hype goes both ways: "OMG!! Puskedra might run 8:30s,.. how fast can German go???, Jelimo is so new to the 800 how much better can she get?" then when the results come in time after time that "ho hum, nothing new to see here" kind of keeps things in perspective. Alan has run ONE race on the track. lets see where things go over the next 3 weeks. if he utterly fails, then we can bash him on the boards. but until then, lets see if he might actually be in good position for being competetive at the right time.
Spydars Webb wrote:
If Webb run the 1500 equivalent to last years 2nd race of 3:51.71 approx...3:35. I say he makes the Oly Team.
why would webb not make the olympic team>??
the majority of letsrun has already predicted that he wins the olympic gold.
did you just wake up? webb dnf'ed in 2 road races and bailed on another track meet due to lack of fitness. we are at june 11, which is getting a little late in the year to have ZERO quality performances. when was the last american distance runner who did nothing for the 1st 5 months of an olympic year, showed up to oly trials, made the team and then went on to medal? i'm not saying that it can't be done but it certainly isn't ideal. nonetheless, i hope he does it.