Athletic Kenya (AK) has hypothetically asked you to pick 3 Marathoners (+ 2 Reserve Runners) to Represent Kenya in the Beijing Olympics.
My Picks are;
1) Martin Lel 2:05:15 ('08 London Champion)
2) Samuel Wanjiru 2:05:24 ('08 London 2nd)
3) William Kipsang 2:05:49 ('08 Rotterdam Champion)
4) Robert Cheruiyot (or 2008 Boston Champion) (1st Reserve)
5) Emmanuel Mutai (4th 2008 London Marathon 2:06:15 & Top Kenyan Time in 2007) (2nd Reserve)
Name your 3 Picks plus 2 reserves?
Thank goodness none of us is Athletics Kenya. You have three spots for the team. Who do you pick?
1. Martin Lel: No brainer.
2. Samuel Wanjriu: Third fastest Kenyan ever, a prodigy at the shorter distances, young, based in Asia, has run very well and competitively in his only two attempts at the marathon.
I think those two are solid bets. Now, where do you go from there?
3. Mutai runs, a personal best, but finishes only fourth in this race--the deepest marathon of all-time.
4. William Kipsang wins the Rotterdam Marathon this morning in a course record time of 2:05:50, winning by like 90 seconds.
5. Robert Cheruiyot: Defending World Marathon Majors champion, though his last outing at Chicago was underwhelming. A lot depends on how he does in Boston.
6. Luke Kibet, the World Champion who--significantly--showed how well he could run in tough, humid, and hot conditions in Osaka last summer. But he was totally buried in today's marathon. Can he argue that the head injury he took in December interrupted his training enough to give him consideration?
7. Paul Tergat: The elder statesman who wants one last shot. Kenyan record holder. Ran sixth in last year's London marathon (the deepest marathon of all-time). I would think he has absolutely zero chance at selection though.
8. Felix Limo: Today's performance probably sinks him, but he has a very good competitive record.
9. There are four other Kenyans who have run 2:06 in the past six months alone!
In my opinion, the third spot goes to Cheruiyot only if he wins Boston. But given that the CR in Boston is only 2:07:14, what if Cheruiyot runs 2:07:30 to win? Does that outweigh Kipsang's dominating 2:05:50 in Rotterdam today? How the hell do you compare those?
I'm actually not in favor of the Trial system as it is structured in the U.S., but at least you avoid these problems.
Lel and Wanjiru are in for sure, I'd have to say.
Jossi, you suggested 7 others, but not the 8th runner who I think is really the one to watch. Patrick Ivuti won Chicago in very hot weather. Kibet won at Osaka in the heat, but I don't think that field was as competitive as Chicago. My guess is that Ivuti and Cheruiyot will duel at Boston for the last spot. Both are proven racers, which is what it will take at Beijing.
Kipsang's 2:05 gives him a chance. I'd rank him behind Kibet to go to the Olympics, but I think he's the better marathoner.
Tergat and Limo are out of form, especially Tergat, who will be 39 in June and hasn't run faster than 2:08 in five years. I think Tergat's last great race was New York in 2005 where he outkicked Ramaala.
Ivuti! The very fact that I forgot him shows just how tough this decision is. I completely agree that he's a contender, though I think the top two people Kibet beat in Osaka (Shami and Röthlin) were at least on the level with guys beaten by Ivuti in Chicago. Sort of irrelevant at this point though as Kibet won't be chosen, and Ivuti's fate is (maybe?) in his own hands (or rather, feet).
Lel and Wanjiru ought to be certain picks. I'd pick Cheruiyot as the third because he has proven himself in slow tactical races as well as fast races. Beijing will not be a 2:05 race.
Korir and Kipsang look like the logical alternates for now, but we've got a few good spring marathons left for others to prove themselves.
Patrick Ivuti winning time in the 2007 Chicago was 2:11:XX. His personal best is 2:07:46 run in 2006. So he can make, but when you have to chose between Ivuti and Cheruiyot (Boston & WMM Winner) I think Robert Cheruiyot is better bet.
Sammy Korir too needs to be added to the list. He is the pacer that took Paul Tergat to the wire when Tergat set the world record.
Athletics Kenya (AK) wrote:
Athletic Kenya (AK) has hypothetically asked you to pick 3 Marathoners (+ 2 Reserve Runners) to Represent Kenya in the Beijing Olympics.
I organize a race in which every Kenyan runner who has run under, let's say 2:14, is allowed to run, and then I send the top 3. Pretty radical idea, I know.
Athletics Kenya (AK) wrote:
Athletic Kenya (AK) has hypothetically asked you to pick 3 Marathoners (+ 2 Reserve Runners) to Represent Kenya in the Beijing Olympics.
My Picks are;
1) Martin Lel 2:05:15 ('08 London Champion)
2) Samuel Wanjiru 2:05:24 ('08 London 2nd)
3) William Kipsang 2:05:49 ('08 Rotterdam Champion)
4) Robert Cheruiyot (or 2008 Boston Champion) (1st Reserve)
5) Emmanuel Mutai (4th 2008 London Marathon 2:06:15 & Top Kenyan Time in 2007) (2nd Reserve)
Name your 3 Picks plus 2 reserves?
AK,
This is good thread. I've been thinking about it for a while.
I"d pick
1. Paul Tergat-He has the heart of a Simba.
2. Martin lel
3. Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot
4. William Kipsang
5. Emmanuel Mutai-he is in top form
6. Sammy Kamau
how many should make the Olympics team for any given country?
Kenya will be prevented from taking an olympics marathon gold by Haile only.
Tergat doesn't even belong in this discussion at this point. In 2008, there's no valid argument for picking him if you're trying to select the best possible tean. Bygones are bygones.
After seeing this race, Martin Lel and/Or Samuel Wanjiru will break Haile's World Record. Lel vs Haile, Lel wins hands down.
Much Ado wrote:
Tergat doesn't even belong in this discussion at this point. In 2008, there's no valid argument for picking him if you're trying to select the best possible tean. Bygones are bygones.
You were righthttp://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/olympics/athletics/7359174.stm.
I would pick Lel, Cheruiyot and Kipsang...
A Kenyan trials would have to have a qualifying time of around 2:12, right?
The Beijing Olympic Marathon will be unlike any Championship marathon in History. Yes the course is basically flat and fast, however the heat, humidity and smog is going to be a huge factor.
I think that if AK choose the team on time alone, they are making a HUGE mistake.
That being said, yes Martin Lel should be given a spot.
They should definitely choose one of these three guys:
(1) Patrick Ivuti, winner of Chicago 2007. 2:11 on a day that nasty was very noteworthy.
(2) Joshua Chelanga, winner of Rotterdam 2007. He ran 2:08 on the hottest day in Rotterdam history. So hot, they had to pull the runners off the course after 4 hours.
(3) Luke Kibet, 2007 World Champion. Again, winning the World Championship in that nasty weather is very noteworthy.
It should be Lel, Wanjiru, and Cheruiyot, and probably will be
MAYEROFF wrote:
The Beijing Olympic Marathon will be unlike any Championship marathon in History. Yes the course is basically flat and fast, however the heat, humidity and smog is going to be a huge factor.
I think that if AK choose the team on time alone, they are making a HUGE mistake.
That being said, yes Martin Lel should be given a spot.
They should definitely choose one of these three guys:
(1) Patrick Ivuti, winner of Chicago 2007. 2:11 on a day that nasty was very noteworthy.
(2) Joshua Chelanga, winner of Rotterdam 2007. He ran 2:08 on the hottest day in Rotterdam history. So hot, they had to pull the runners off the course after 4 hours.
(3) Luke Kibet, 2007 World Champion. Again, winning the World Championship in that nasty weather is very noteworthy.
This is the most logical way to choose the team and I completely agree, however, the team will be selected based on time and major marathon performance alone. This means Lel, Wanjiru, and Cheruiyot will likely be chosen.
Luke Kibet,Martin Lel ,and Cheruiyot should be the team.
I take that back about Robert C. 2:16 in the heat of chicago doesn't show promise for Beijing. Patrick Ivuti might be better choice.
Athletic Kenya (AK) wrote:
After seeing this race, Martin Lel and/Or Samuel Wanjiru will break Haile's World Record. Lel vs Haile, Lel wins hands down.
I don't know why Lel would win hands down. You gotta think if it came down to kick Haile would have just as good a kick as Lel. Also you have remember Haile ran almost a minute faster all by himself(albeit the conditions at the end of London were certainly a factor for Lel). So I don't think it would a hands down win. At this point it could go either way if they raced. Nothing suggests Lel could beat Haile.
"Lel, Wanjiru, Cheruiyot – deadly combination"
While I agree that Kibet and Ivuti have proved their abilities in less than perfect conditions... I would have to go with AK on their decision because in my oppinion they Chose their 3 best and most consistant Marathoners. These three deserve the spots more than anyone else and they will get the honor of representing Kenya in the Olympics with the best trio of runners that the country has ever sent to the games.