Obama wins Wyoming = game over

Yeah, he's gonna kick McCain's butt in the general election caucuses.

A) I didn't mention him being better than McCain

B) How does winning a caucus have anything to do with the general election results?

C) what?

Just wait until you see the stunt I pull at the convention! I can ace Obama out of the nomination, destroy the unity of the Democrat party, and set John McCain up for the biggest landslide in history! All in a few short hours of string pulling and blackmailing. Remember those FBI files I compiled as the first lady......

Senator Clinton:

I wouldn't pull any strings if I were you.

I've got 1 word for you

Whitewater

quick stats.

States Obama's won (% MoV)

Idaho (63%)

Hawaii (52%)

Kansas (50%)

Alaska (50%)

Washington St. (37%)

Nebraska (36%)

Colorado (35%)

Georgia (35%)

Minnesota (34%)

Illinois (32%)

Virginia (29%)

South Carolina (28%)

North Dakota (24%)

Wyoming (23%)

Maryland (23%)

Louisiana (21%)

Vermont (20%)

Maine (19%)

Utah (18%)

Wisconsin (17%)

Alabama (14%)

Delaware (11%)

Iowa (9%)

Connecticut (4%)

Missouri (1%)

State's Clinton's Won (%MoV)

Arkansas (44%)

Oklahoma (24%)

Rhode Island (20%)

New York (17%)

Massachusetts (15%)

Tennessee (13%)

New Jersey (10%)

Ohio (10%)

California (9%)

Arizona (8%)

Texas (4%)

New Hampshire (3%)

New Mexico (1%)

Up in the air...

Florida

Michigan

Nevada (1% to Clinton, but 1 more delegate to Obama)

It's not just that the population of Wyoming is small - do you really think that Wyoming has any chance of going to the democrats in the fall? Hillary has won some pretty important states. When the Mich/Fla debacle sorts itself out, we'll have a much better idea how things will turn out.

If we've learned anything this last year, it's that no one's out and no one is a sure thing until they have the magic number.

Brokered convention.

dmb wrote:

It's not just that the population of Wyoming is small - do you really think that Wyoming has any chance of going to the democrats in the fall? Hillary has won some pretty important states.

Yea there are two points that are important...

1) Obama's won red states, but what does that mean. Do democrats in red states not count? Should these victories count as less than bigger states? Isn't that why they have proportional #'s of delegates for each state?

2) Clinton's won the "important" states. Because Clinton beats Obama does that mean he can't win New York, Clifornia, or New Jersey in a national election? Is she winning but important margins? For instance does a 4% difference in Texas mean that Obama's weak in Texas?

I will say this on point 2, I think she has done a PR job by overhyping the importance of the states she's won, while trying to minimalize the states he's won. People keep saying that she just started going negative. But her campaign has had a negative overtone since super tuesday when she failed at her mission of clinching the nomination. Since then her tone towards Obama has just been negative all together.

Souper Tuesday wrote:

B) How does winning a caucus have anything to do with the general election results?

Not much, and that's the point.

What's the delegate count if you include only states that have primary elections rather than caucuses, like the general election? I really don't know, but I suspect Clinton is leading in that race since Obama has won 12 of 15 caucuses (or 13 of 16 after Wyoming?).

What's the delegate count if all states were winner-take-all, again, like the general election? By my count

Clinton: 1477

Obama: 1177

See, the problem I have with this logic is that Obama is beating Hillary in a lot of states where a Republican is going to win anyways. Wyoming is going to go for the Republican candidate, practically a guarantee. Something like 2/3 of registered voters are Republicans in WY.

On the other hand, Hillary is beating Obama in many states that are going to go Democrat. NY, Cali, all that jazz.

Game is not over, unfortunately. Neither of the candidates will clinch the nomination before the National Convention, its mathematically almost impossible.

Bringer of Truthiness wrote:

quick stats.

State's Clinton's Won (%MoV)

Texas (4%)

Might wanna check up on that...

Whoever is going to win the party is badly split. The Democrats will find another way to lose the general election.

daaaaang wrote:

See, the problem I have with this logic is that Obama is beating Hillary in a lot of states where a Republican is going to win anyways. Wyoming is going to go for the Republican candidate, practically a guarantee. Something like 2/3 of registered voters are Republicans in WY.

On the other hand, Hillary is beating Obama in many states that are going to go Democrat. NY, Cali, all that jazz.

Game is not over, unfortunately. Neither of the candidates will clinch the nomination before the National Convention, its mathematically almost impossible.

yea I agree that the issue is over which states mean what. I don't think that because he loses to another democrat in NY or Cali means he'll lose to a republican in those states though. I fail to see the logic behind that. I agree he's won some states that probably won't vote republican, but I think he makes more states "Swing states" than previously.

Clinton won less delegates in Texas than Obama because of the Caucus, but yes, the game is over, no way that Hillary can win so many more delegates in the remaining states.

see, I don't get that logic. Obama can't get enough delegates to clinch the nomination before the convention either.

Superdelegates are going to decide this nomination, and where they go all depends on which way the wind is blowing at the convention. Sadly, this isn't a good representation of the sentiments of the population. It puts the will of the Democratic Party ahead of the will of the people, in all honesty.

Everyone assumes we're waiting on other states to see if Hillary does well. But I think superdelegates and party officials are waiting for Obama to win a state like Pennslyvania. If she wins we just keep going.

Here are my scenarios.

A) She wins Pennslyvania by a <10% margin and we just keep going status quo until North Carolina. After Obama wins NC senior party officials, Gore and Edwards and others send all their support to Obama.

B) Obama wins Pennslyvania and she suspends her campaign. Superdelegates and Senior party officials throw their support behind Obama.

I do not see this going to the convention without Edwards and Gore putting their 2 cents in. They realize how deadly it would be for this go to until the convention. Either way I don't think she's going to win. I think she's clinging to the "well I still have a chance" thread.

The fact that Obama is doing better than Hilary in states that typically vote Republican makes me think he is the more viable candidate come the general election.

Obama's rhetoric aside, but if the United States truly wants a change from Bush, it's more likely that a Republican state will vote democrat (favoring Obama being the Democratic candidate) than a Democratic state voting Republican.

Here is my prediction...Obama and Hillary are going to split victories all the way to the convention, where Obama will lead Hillary still in the popular vote, states won and delegates earned. However, the Democratic establishment will be so scared of McCain by then, since he has been running his national campaign with no opposition for months, that they will overturn the popular vote with their Super Delegates, and Clinton will win the nomination. Because of this, half of the Democratic party (including the future of the party, since 70% of Dems. under 30 are going for Obama) will revolt and not vote. McCain will trounce Hillary in the general election and Republicans will regain power in Congress by a wide majority. Meanwhile, the leaders of the Democratic Party will be voted out, one idiot at a time. The Republicans will control the government for the next 8 years, as the Democrats try to rebuild what they lost. The Dems. will regain power in 8 years after McCain calls for a draft, enters Iran (similar to Iraq), and the economy continues to fall, fall, fall. The end.

I posted it before several times:No way that the Superdelegates hand the nomination to Clinton when Obama is leading in pledged delegates and the popular vote.

This would give McCain a landslide victory in November and many of these superdelegates would face primary opposition by grassroots pushed candidates in their own elections.

It's a different story when Obama wins more pledged delegates but loses the popular vote, then it might become a battle at the convention.

anyone else think they will get sick of this whole situation before Pennslyvania.