Ryan Hall WILL medal... you guys do realize he is in 2:06 shape, right?

I could see him winning a medal. I just cross my fingers that he wont't go nuts in his training between now and then and wind up hurt. What he's been doing so far has worked very well. No need to double it....

I'll agree with this. Basically 2:09 flat on that course with no rabbits and no real competition after mile 17 is pretty amazing. I think he has as good a shot as anyone at winning that gold medal. Running the last half of THAT marathon in under 1:03 is pretty sick.

The heat and humidity in Beijing might not help him. Big Bear, Stanford, and Mammoth are not exactly humid. His training better take the Olympic conditions into account, or he will not be medaling.

i wish i could get excited but, after the Alan Webb hype I am not going to allow myself to get too excited.

Great performance and all that....and coming back that fast over teh second half would seem to indicate that he had more in the tank and could have run faster given a faster first half.....BUT....i completely disagree that he coudl have run faster if he had competition....the marathon is not like the 1500/3k/5k where you can push yourself one more lap cause of the comp....marathon runners run better when they run their own race.....

I am rooting for him. I am very worried about how he will handle the heat. Still I am rooting for him to knock another one out of the park.

Hell I'm rooting for all 3 of them. I'd even like to maybe see Ritz qualify in 10k and bow out, giving KK a chance, except that then that means we wouldn't get to see Ritz in the marathon.

I think he has a good chance to medal. I don't know what any imaginary gods have to do with it. I guess it goes back to ancient Greece and the Olympic Games where the winner was thought to be the one most favored by the gods. Hard, smart preparation is more likely the key that will get him a medal.

It is way easier to run in a pack that by yourself, how can you not know that?

Tedjo wrote:

The heat and humidity in Beijing might not help him. Big Bear, Stanford, and Mammoth are not exactly humid. His training better take the Olympic conditions into account, or he will not be medaling.

Well, we were all worried about heat, humidity and pollution in Athens, and Meb seem to come down from Mammoth just fine. Seems like those guys know what they're doing. Really, all they need to do is re adjust to sea level in LA and it'll be just like running in Bejing.

"...with the love of God" Thanks for reminding us all.

Did you see how many times he pointed up to the sky as he approached the finish? after he crossed the finish line? when he knelt down in prayer?

Thanks for the reminder but I am sure Ryan will do quite enough of it himself.

Hall should move there and train in that environment starting ASAP. Also...I do believe he is in 2:06 shape, but holding it is a different story. I just hope he can hold on. I really hope he goes for the gold...he deserves it.

The fact that Kenya can only send three men, two of whom usually end up being not really at the top of their game, and that the Japanese and Chinese men do not rival the Japanese and Chinese women in quality (same thing with the Russians, really) greatly increases Ryan's chances of medaling. He may actually be the most amazing homegrown male marathon talent this country has seen. It might seem premature to make that statement on the basis of two great marathons and a terrific half-marathon but...no, it isn't.

Hall is in shape right now for a 2:07xx performance, but it is too soon and life is too fickle for predictions this far out.

I'd just like to point out that there are more than two other people in the world in 2:06 shape at the moment. And that blasting away from the pack in 4:30s isn't new-check out some stuff on frank shorter and bill rogers.

Being in 2:06 shape and running one are two different things as its something different to finish fast off a slow first half than to run hard from the gun.

With a sub 60 half he has shown the potential to be a 2:06 Marathoner and a possible medal contender but the olympic Marathon will be a very special one and i'm not sure if really some top guy will win and not just the guy who can inhale the most pollution.

Did you see the London Marathon? Were it not for the heat he could have run 2:07 flat there, if not sub.

He is in 2:06 shape.

More than likely no one person will have better than a 30% chance of medaling in Beijing. Hall may be in 2:05/6 shape but so will 10 other guys and 7 of them will be disappointed. Heat and humidity introduce a ton of risk into the marathon and fitness level only alleviates a portion of that risk (ask Tergat). Make it a time trial race on a falt course with good conditions and you will get a lot more even results.

Hall could be one of the favorites (and probably will be) and not medal - that doesn't make him a faliure its just the way the game is played.

Tedjo wrote:

The heat and humidity in Beijing might not help him. Big Bear, Stanford, and Mammoth are not exactly humid. His training better take the Olympic conditions into account, or he will not be medaling.

Totally agree. He should get in touch with Steve Spence to see what modifications he can make for the heat/humidity. Aside from that, keep doing what he has been doing.

legally blond wrote:

Hall is in shape right now for a 2:07xx performance, but it is too soon and life is too fickle for predictions this far out.

As someone astutely pointed out yesterday, but for the first 5k "warmup," Hall ran a 2:07:25 pace for the last 37+ kilometers. And that was without competition at the end on a rolling course. So, yes, to say Ryan Hall is in 2:07 shape is a vast understatement.