26mi235 wrote:
the430miler wrote:Hall will be lucky to get in the top 10 at Beijeng.
the top 3 will probably be Tergat, Limo, and Cherioyot.
in that order.
I would not bet very heavily that any of this trio is in the top 3, partially because there are so many guys, but I think Tergat is getting over the hill and you need to be at the top to survive at the Olympics. The Kenyans have not had a great track record at the Games.
Agreed, those three can't even be sure of a place in the race, let alone the top 3 spots, it's not like Kenya is an easy country to get bids in, I mean, Martin Lel just won and NYC, and London which was supposed to be one of the best fields ever. Two other Kenyans just ran under 2:07 in Amsterdam. I wouldn't be at all surprised if only one of those three made the team, which I think is part of why Kenya isn't as successful in the Olympic marathon as they are in the major marathons. In the major marathons there might be 10 Kenyans who can run under 2:09, while only 3 make the Olympic team. At a major, 6 Kenyans can have an off day and one still win, while if that happens at the Games, they're out of it.