What Are My Chances of a 3:00 Marathon Within the Next Five Years?

Avocados Number wrote:

I disagree with those who suggest a greater focus on speed and less focus on volume. The only way to drop another 30 minutes is by dramatically increasing training volume (mileage) and losing any unnecessary body mass. Of course, the training shouldn't be just easy jogging, but should instead be, to a large extent, the kind of steady, tough running that Lydiard advocated. Faster running (marathon race pace or faster) can have its place in marathon training, but won't do much toward slicing 30 minutes off your marathon time. The big gains are made by increasing training volume. In your sitution and with your goals, you don't have the luxury of training methods that distract you from the primary training focus of consistently higher training volume at a steady pace.

With my admittedly weak knowledge of running physiology, I agree with this statement 100%.

I would add a word of caution, as I sit here injured and unable to train for the last 6 weeks; judge miles per week by time on your feet not by measured mileage. Being able to run a 3:30 marathon, your weekly pace for all 70 to 80 miles, including speed work, probably averages about 8 min per mile or about 30 to 40% slower than the elite runners.

At 80 mpw you are already pounding your body as long and with as much force as an elite who is running 100 to 110 mpw and at 100 mpw you will be working as hard as an elite running 130 to 150 mpw.

Look for the most bang for your buck. Lose weight if you have some extra and be patient. It is a sport of incremental gains and suprising blips.

I think it's going to be tough for you. It sounds like you're already running fairly high mileage, with tempos and speedwork, and you're probably already pretty lean. You're also relatively experienced at the marathon distance, so your energy efficiency about as good as it's going to get. On the other hand, you're improving pretty quickly on the higher mileage, and unlike some of the other people here I think as a late starter you can improve into your mid-late 40s. So I can only say it's about 50-50 whether you make it, which means it's probably a good goal for you.

Personally I would not focus on the marathon all the time, though. I would spend a season trying to bring your 5k-1/2 marathon times into line with a 3:00 marathoner, and then the following season trying to "realize" the marathon time that is appropriate for your current 5k-15k PRs.

Good luck & I hope you make it.

late bloomer wrote: At 80 mpw you are already pounding your body as long and with as much force as an elite who is running 100 to 110 mpw and at 100 mpw you will be working as hard as an elite running 130 to 150 mpw.

Yeah, this is a valid point often lost. Spending as much time training, taking as many steps, at the same relative effort level...

I'm in a similar boat to Old Slug - this fall should've been my season to break 3, at age 40, except my training got destroyed by a couple pretty severe illnesses. So while I can say I have run over a hundred, I also bear in mind Don Kardong's observation that while 100 is a round number, "88 is even rounder".

On the third hand, 130 to 150 mpw ain't exactly unknown for elites, so who's to say 100 is definitely too much for an guy of lesser talent who's just really into it and capable of holding up at that volume?

Old Slug, are you running twice most days or putting in a bunch of really long singles? Congrats on your improvement and keep up the good work! It sounds like you have a pretty good idea what works for you, and will be able to sort the wheat from the chaff in the suggestions you get here.

Old Slug Trying To Get Faster wrote:

Wow. There seems to be a lot of not so subtle judgment here. I lead a full life. I have a family I love and spend a great deal of time with, have a career I enjoy and a past-time (running) that I absolutely love. I have had the good fortune to have a job with some flexibility allowing me to spend more time running.

I love running. Is that a foreign idea here? I think not! I want to improve and enjoy the challenge of trying..

I didn't mean to make any judgments about you in particular. I'm simply suggesting (based on many years of observations) that middle-aged runners (men and women) often begin pursuing such goals when there are other things that are troubling them in their lives, and it's often worth recognizing and dealing with that at the outset. If that's not your situation, great. It sounds as though you have a richer life than most of the people who embark upon similar quests. I brought up that topic because I think it would have been a bit irresponsible to answer a question about how a middle-aged 3:30 marathoner should go about trying to break three hours without fitting that question into the broader context of your life.

I'm glad you recognize that, if anything will allow you to reach your goal, it will be by increased mileage, not by running shorter races and similar such stuff. The people who say that they (or others) have run sub-3 marathons on less mileage are missing a key point, which is that you already have sufficient data (experience) to indicate that it is extremely unlikely that YOU can run a sub-3 marathon on less than 50 mpw, regardless of how much racing, tempo running, and interval training you throw into the mix.

Wow. I'm really impressed with this discussion. Thanks everyone.

I am doing singles right now. I run 90 minutes "hard" and then 70 to 90 minutes "easier" on alternate days. And, of course, I have my weekly long run.

The pounding is not bothering me. I feel great.

sorry folks. I seem to be having trouble getting the "quote" box to work right (old guys have mental problems too!) I wanted to say this in a previous post:

----

Wow. I'm really impressed with this discussion. Thanks everyone.

I am doing singles right now. I run 90 minutes "hard" and then 70 to 90 minutes "easier" on alternate days. And, of course, I have my weekly long run.

The pounding is not bothering me. I feel great.

Another thing I could say in terms of encouragement is that when I made the jump up to 80-100 miles per week, I did get better in the short term but it took about a year before my performances really took off. Of course, I was much younger and I was training for 10k range, so you may have a different experience.

Thanks very much.You are right. I could not even get to 3:30 doing those other things.

O. Slug, here's the deal with the quote boxes: the quote starts with the word "quote" enclosed in square brackets and ends with bracketed "/quote". When you quote a message which already included a quote, you get the "quote, /quote" pair enclosing the whole thing but then another "quote, /quote" pair enclosing the inner, quoted quote.

Problem is, when the board goes to display it, it's not smart enough to realize there's one quote nested inside another - it just stops "quoting" when it sees the first "/quote". So you need to do a little editing, make sure there's just the one set of quote commands. Or you can get fancy and rejigger the text like

"quote" (but with brackets) first guy said: blah blah "/quote"

"quote" second guy said: woof woof "/quote"

if that's your thing. Or you can just follow the sloppy example of most here ("I'm too busy to be bothered fixing my quotes, even if I do have time to read and respond to a hundred threads a day") and not worry about it.