Record Day on Wall Street

Well why don't you look at corporate earnings? They only beat estimates because they were revised down.

-Earnings estimates are a game played by analysts. In addition, using earnings to measure a company’s financial results is a fool’s errand unless the number is put into context.

What about housing?

-Housing is a non-story. Yes there are markets where prices are falling. There are also markets where prices are climbing. The rising markets don’t seem newsworthy, and neither do the flat markets, but you ignore them at your peril. The sub-prime mortgage issue is also a non-story. It is sensational in the papers and on the web, but in the end, it will not amount to much.

What about lower consumer confidence?

-What about it?

Any of those good indicators? Why don't you tell me what you are using as indicators.

-All of those are fine indicators, if:

they are understood

they are taken in context

they are not the only metrics used.

I don’t use single indicators. You might consider adding employment, productivity, and inventories. You might also consider indirect measures. Corporate tax receipts and individual income tax receipts are reasonable measures of income. Sales tax collections are reasonable measures of consumption. If you would like a tutorial, consider taking introductory courses in economics and finance.

newbie investor wrote:

Flagpole and others,

if you had $10k sitting around that you wanted to park for the long haul, where would be a good place to put it in today's market?

Open a Roth IRA and put $4,000 of it in there (that's the yearly limit for now) and then open a separate mutual fund with a mix of domestic and international stocks mostly with perhaps 10% bonds (more if you're within 10 years of retirement, less if you want to be very aggressive).

I would do this with Vanguard --

So you'll have this:

1) Roth IRA with 4,000 in it.

2) Mutual Fund with $6,000 in it.

Going forward, I would contribute $4,000 each year to that IRA and then do as much as you can up to $15,500 (the max) to your 401k each year.

If you're under 25 then bare minumum you should be putting 10% away. If you're over 25 and you haven't been investing, then you need to do more than 10% -- probably 15% or more. All depends on your income and the lifestyle you want when you retire.

record corporate profits have been driving this market, but the housing collapse is starting to have an effect on lenders other than the biggest and the economy stalled in the first quarter. the boom has not seen widespread pay gains. my guess is that we're going to see a small recession some time in 2008 and then gradual improvement, so don't bet the farm on the market now, but there should still be some nice profits to be made over the next year there.

ertert wrote:

Look at me! Look at me! I'm soooooooo smart! I live a dull suburban life and don't spend a dime so I can retire one day a millionaire! So my last five or ten years can make up for my dull, boring life until then. Look at me! Money! Money! Money!

Wow. It must suck to be you.

Zat0pek wrote:Wow. It must suck to be you.

I thought the same thing when I read that!