High School sub 4 this summer?

Mrr82 wrote:

watchout wrote: But he hasn't shown anything above 1500 that is all that impressive... so why would it be assumed he has a good shot to put his name in the record books where so many have failed?

Yes because the mile is like....3000 meters further then the 1500....or 109. Running an impressive 1500 is good enough indication. You talk like they are much different events then they actually are. There is a slow down and it is a bit further, but for the most part they are the same event training wise and racing wise.

Funny, I'm usually on that side of the fence. :D

I know that 1500 meters is only 109 meters shorter. But Borchers has had ONE impressive race at that distance. Only one that showed he MIGHT have a near-4 chance. And he hasn't impressed above the 1500... and only now has his 1:48/1:49 split to his name, along with a 1:52 open time. Assuming the split is legit, and assuming he can get in a race where he'll actually run all out, it would be interesting to see what would happen. But I'm not ready to start calling him a sub-4 threat yet, since he has only "shown up" and thrown down monster times twice... he's still 4+ seconds away going with his 1500 best, and 10 away with his 1600/mile bests.

The kid runs to win, plain and simple. His 4:10 was off of a 2:10 800, he won Nike Indoors against some pretty good competition again off a slow pace and we now know he has the 800 wheels to pop off a good mile. Last year at Nike Outdoors he got put in a slower heat of the mile, won it handily in about 4:10 or so and then we all saw what he did at USA Juniors. If he will do it, he needs to get in a meet like Pre where there are plenty of people in front of him to compete with. Against high schoolers, he'll just let the race go out slow and then dominate over the last 400.

Webb in HS wrote:

I am not sure but I think Webb split a 4:00 in a DMR during his junior campaign which signaled to his coach that he was ready to break the barrier. I think he shut it down due to a minor injury that spring in the hope of doing something during his senior year. People talk like running 4:04 or the equivalent signifies that you are ready to go under. Sorry, but every second as you get closer to 4:00 is harder.

And Tim Danielson went from 4:06.x to 3:59.x by jumping in a pro race, which young Centrowitz is going to do (I believe).

Don't be so quick to write everyone off. For the record, I don't think there will be a sub 4 mile this year, but it's not an absurd question.

You Wanted a History Lesson... wrote:

And Tim Danielson went from 4:06.x to 3:59.x by jumping in a pro race, which young Centrowitz is going to do (I believe).

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Oh really? There was no such thing as a pro race when Danielson was in high school.

Ok, not a 'pro race', but an open race with higher caliber athletes...is that better?

TD - I also have been asked this question by a number of people–why the long drought. For me, my goal was not to break a 4 minute mile, my goal was to do my best, and not lose. I was very, very competitive. I would get very worked up even over a dual meet event where I knew I was better than everyone, I was just so competitive. I also think there is a lack of opportunity for high schoolers to run against people who can really push them to the times. My best against high school competition was 4:06. When I competed against the big guys (he ran his sub 4 in an open race) I dropped my time by seven seconds. There seem to be a good number of 4:04-4:05 type milers who just may not have the opportunity to run the correct race.

I also think the change of distances from a mile to 1600 meters may have given kids a different distance to focus times on.

http://www.dyestatcal.com/news/xc2003/12-December%202003/12Fab4Talk.htm

You Wanted a History Lesson... wrote:

And Tim Danielson went from 4:06.x to 3:59.x by jumping in a pro race, which young Centrowitz is going to do (I believe).

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Not to mention Webbs 353...he had run 359 indoors but not under 4 outdoors. So that was a hefty pr.

The high school sub 4 could go down in NZ within the next year. Bowden, Taylor, Ballum and Dixon all in with a shot. All South Islanders. All meaty.

wrong dano wrote:

The kid runs to win, plain and simple. His 4:10 was off of a 2:10 800, he won Nike Indoors against some pretty good competition again off a slow pace and we now know he has the 800 wheels to pop off a good mile. Last year at Nike Outdoors he got put in a slower heat of the mile, won it handily in about 4:10 or so and then we all saw what he did at USA Juniors. If he will do it, he needs to get in a meet like Pre where there are plenty of people in front of him to compete with. Against high schoolers, he'll just let the race go out slow and then dominate over the last 400.

I'm aware that he runs to win, which is why you can't get a good gauge as to what he can do.

But looking at what he HAS done, he hasn't shown sub-4 probability. He hasn't touched it in any mile events (4:04c is the closest he's come), and he hasn't shown it above the mile (no 2-miles under 9:20, right? unless I missed one... and while he was good in D3 Ohio, he hasn't been any sort of factor nationally in xc)

"All" he has to his credit is an unofficial 1:48/1:49 split, and a 3:46 race of his lifetime (at that point)... which is good for a 4:04.mid.

Where does he drop 5 seconds all the sudden?

Again, he hasn't shown anything on the upper levels... I consider him as much of a threat as Nectaly Barbosa or Cory Primm are, and I don't see them breaking 4 minutes in high school. Just like I didn't think Karjuan Williams was going to break 4 minutes in a mile, either.

All those guys have similar 800 speed in high school (1:49.xx OPEN), and Primm and possibly Barbosa are probably better over 2 miles or longer, so why wouldn't they have as good or better a chance? Simple, they do. They're all 4:05ish types, that's all they've shown to be capable of (and they haven't accomplished that yet, even)