Hall's career best marathon predictions

i think he has 2:07's and 2:06's in his future, but 2:05's and such would really take a great weather day on a good course. we can all agree that he has talent though.

2:08:24

I think his best performance will be the 2008 Olympics. No way does he NOT mix it up and go for a medal. Re: his best time, I don't know. But I really think he'll do what he's capable of, which is a big compliment. He's durable and committed, so we'll see the best he has to offer. He's only 24, so it should be a great ride.

His best time cannot possibly come in Beijing, due to the climate there.

Meanwhile, considering Tergat and Korir ran 2:04 at the ages of 34 and 32, this means Hall has a good 10 year window in which to break 2:05, and I think he will do so at least once in the right race, perhaps as fast as 2:04:30.

1:58:45. Just kidding.

2:06:something a sure thing unless he gets injured or something of that nature.

2:05:something if the stars line up and he's pushed and is in great shape.

2:04:something or even better if he pulls another shocker like he did with that half marathon of his.

Do you guys realize that a 4:00 PR in the marathon is ridiculous? That it is more likely he never runs sub 2:09 again than that he breaks 2:07?

Didn't Gebreselassie run 2:06:XX in his debut? What has he done for us in the marathon lately?

he ran 2:05:56 in extremely windy weather, running alone. that was like six months ago. get a clue. london isn't the only race he runs every year.

Interesting and also noteworthy that Mr. Culp predicts the same time as London (i.e. no improvement).

I'm as much of a Ryan Hall fan as anybody but let's not forget that Alan Culpepper has not improved upon his marathon debut time. I wonder what everyone was predicting for Alan after his record tying debut?

seriously people...2:05s and 2:06s a sure thing...based on a 2:08 performance??

hall ran an absolutely amazing race and make a huge step forward for American distance running...but its idiots like you who spoil the accomplishment with ridiculous expectations

2:06 is a semirealistic possibility but if hall could become a consistent 2:08 guy that would be a hell of a career

Marathon is amonster event, it takes like 3 to 6 months to prepare for it. It ain't easy to break it. I think Hall can go deeper but not as deep as 2.06 Kenyans the marathon country has only Tergat, Sammy and Lel being the only ones who have deep under despite enormous talent. Geb thought of WR in marathon but now on realising how tough it is he never talks about it anymore not even the half WR.

Man, some of you sound like Hall haters.

KIDDING!

Just wanted to show how ridiculous that sounds to say that just because someone makes a prediction.

The guy was on 2:07:30 pace before he wilted in the heat at the end.

In his first marathon.

Hall will consistently rack up 2:07's and 2:06's barring unusual conditions, and as Tergat and Korir showed, have that one spectacularly outstanding gobsmacker the day all the stars align for him.

Hall is something special. He is no Culp, and no Dave Morris.

We had discussions like this about Ritz right after NYCM:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=1617079&page=0

What's interesting is that several of the big names on the American debut list never ran faster than their debuts. Ryan is so young that hopefully he can.

Maybe we should update the list of American debuts:

2:08:24 2:08:24 Ryan Hall (24) London 2007

2:09:41 2:08:51 Alberto Salazar (22) New York 1980

2:09:41 2:09:41 Alan Culpepper (30) Chicago 2002

2:11:13 2:11:13 Rudy Chapa (26) New York 1983

2:11:17 2:11:17 Todd Williams (28) Chicago 1997

2:11:35 2:11:35 Dan Browne (27) Twin Cities 2002

2:12:12 2:08:47 Bob Kempainen (25) Twin Cites 1991

2:12:27 2:12:27 Fernando Cabada (24) Fukuoka 2006

2:12:35 2:09:53 Meb Keflezighi (27) New York 2002

2:13:02 2:11:40 Rod Dehaven Chicago (32) 1998

-

2:13:07 2:08:59 Greg Meyer(25) Detroit 1980

2:13:21 2:13:21 Steve Ortiz (22) 1981

2:13:24 2:13:05 Mark Coogan (27) Boston 1994

2:13:29 2:12:23 George Malley (27) New York 1982

2:14:01 2:14:01 Dathan Ritzenhein (23) New York 2006

2:14:13 2:14:13 Kyle Baker (26) Chicago 2002

2:14:15 2:14:15 Brad Hauser (25) St Paul 2002

2:14:21 2:14:21 Mark Nenow (30) New York 1988

2:14:23 2:14:23 John Hunsaker (23) Tempe 1979

2:14:30 2:14:08 Ryan Shay (23) Chicago 2002

-

2:14:40 2:10:26 Craig Virgin (23) San Diego 1979

2:14:57 2:14:57 Don Johns (26) Duluth 1991

2:15:11 2:15:11 Mike Morgan (26) Chicago 2006

2:15:15 2:14:06 Steve Bolt (25) Rocket City 1980

2:15:16 2:11:32 Paul Cummings (28) St George 1981

2:15:28 2:11:38 Paul Gompers (19) Rocket City 1983

2:15:28 2:15:28 Nate Jenkins Austin 2006

2:15:47 2:15:47 Mike McGuire (26) Detroit 1981

2:15:50 2:15:50 Jason Hartmann (25) Chicago 2006

2:15:51 2:11:25 Randy Thomas (24) New York

....

2:17:09 2:08:55 Abdi Abdirahman (27) New York 2004

It's also encouraging to see that so many in the top 10 will be competing (barring injury) in the OT in NYC.

2:05:30

Adam Smith wrote:

... let's not forget that Alan Culpepper has not improved upon his marathon debut time...

Let's not forget that Culpepper was 30 when he ran his debut and on the downside of his career.

Salazar never ran a good marathon after age 24...

he basically had 3 years on top and then faded badly....

pardon the pun, but here's hoping Hall's run at the top of the sport is longer

I see Ryan Hall topping out at about 2:06:30 in 2009 or 2010. He doesn't seem to be very injury prone, and trains consistently at altitude and has a very good coach.

His biggest mistakes would be to get side-tracked on 10km-10mile-halfmarathon races, and just focus on learning to run 3:00km's for 2 hours+.

The major factors will obviously be the right course on the right day. He'd be wise to take a break after the Olympics (if he makes the team, which is not guaranteed), and go for it at Berlin or Chicago in Fall 2009.

Jason

Alan never ran sub60 in the half.

Adam Smith wrote:

Interesting and also noteworthy that Mr. Culp predicts the same time as London (i.e. no improvement).

I'm as much of a Ryan Hall fan as anybody but let's not forget that Alan Culpepper has not improved upon his marathon debut time. I wonder what everyone was predicting for Alan after his record tying debut?

You're misreading.

The post (ostensibly) by Culp himself predicts Hall never improving on his London debut of 2:08:24.