Jonathan Gault has the scoop: Sabastian Sawe heads into London after getting a stress fracture + back injury at end of 2025

Hmmm makes me feel a bit skeptical he wins vs Kiplimo. I think Kiplimos engine is so good that smart/patient as Sawe is Kiplimo might just be able to run away à la Korir vs Benson Kipruto if he’s only 90% fit. I also am not counting out Kejelcha by any means.

I feel like the top 8 guys will just go out in 61 and all will die except Kiplimo unless Sawe is as fit

Weather prognosis looking okeyish:

runnersworld.com

‘How hot will it really be on Sunday?’ This is the weather forecast for the 2026 London Marathon

Ben Hobson

Here’s all you need to know ahead of the big day

Open link

My money is on Sawe ....he is more a "champion" performer than Kiplimo to me

im 60 miles south of the world's greatest city and i can tell you its gonna be a hotty. bright blue skies and sunny. a bit of a chill breeze, but that aint gonna help.

2.04.

According to Yr weather channel, the temperature will be 13°C on start to 17°C on finish line. Few clouds and little East wind 3m/s

Elite starts at 9:05 Women and 9:35 Men

A little bit too hot for WR, but Kiplimo is unpredictable

So if I'm hearing this right, the guy that has made news with how much drug testing he's doing suddenly develops injuries and setbacks in the leadup to the marathon that he's doing a bunch of drug testing for?

Incorrect. The same article notes that the marathon he first did all the testing for (Berlin 2025) ended up being "the best marathon by anyone in 2025, and he would have threatened the world record had the race not featured sunny, 70+ degree conditions." He has then continued to be voluntarily tested at a higher level than anyone else in the world and has, at the same time, had to work through some setbacks. But skipping the "best marathon of the year" bit is either disingenuous or terrible reading comprehension.

Not to mention it appears the first hiccup occurred ahead of Berlin and nonetheless he ran 2:02 in bad conditions.

I think everyone will be dissapointed. I think Kiplimo will win it and Cheptegei will have a breakthrough, but the winning time will be in the 2.02s. As usual lately.

Obiri has no chance

I will never write off Obiri.If you know her history then you know that even though her running form is ugly to watch,her talent and potential is incredible.

The worlds greatest city? It's a crime infested hellhole overrun with immigrants.

Anyway, Kejelcha.

The leaders blow up pushing too hard, Paternain swoops in ftw.

Agreed, she's very underrated. People forget about her because her PB isn't the fastest- she's basically only races Boston and New York (slower courses, aside from Boston last week, which she obviously didn't race).

Sawe said his last 40km long run he ran in 2:01:36. Given his abbreviated buildup perhaps this is too big of an effort too close to race day, or perhaps he is crazy fit and could even benefit from being slightly undercooked. I say if he’s fully fit and tapered he will beat Kiplimo, but that remains to be seen. Kejelcha could also mix things up, I just hope he shows some patience.

She actually has only run 2 marathons, and neither were Boston or New York. She ran 2:27 in her debut marathon at the McKirdy Micro (flat), and then 2:27 again to place 3rd at the World Champs in hot conditions. I love her story, but her ceiling doesn’t seem to be that high. Her 1:10 half and 33 10K are very average. Even if the top 3 blow up disastrously, I don’t think it would be Paternain who mixes things up. I’d love to be proven wrong though!