Based on PBs/2025 SBs, I'd argue it's not close. Still Team Kenya's prowess on the grass, and some of the past legs of guys with whatever PBs (Munguti) indicate they should not be underestimated.
Team Australia:
Jessica Hull (3:50.8/3:52.6) Linden Hall (3:56.3)
Oliver Hoare (3:29.4/3:31.1) Cameron Myers (3:29.8)
Team Kenya:
Purity Chepkirui (4:05.1) Judy Kemunto (2:00.98A)
Reynold Cheruiyot (3:29.9) Daniel Munguti (3:33.7/3:35.6)
Team USA:
Gracie Morris (4:04.05) Sage Hurta-Klecker (4:01.79/4:05.46)
Ethan Strand (3:30.2) Wes Porter (3:35.0)
Great Britain, Spain, France, Ethiopia and South Africa could field good teams as well. We could get a sense of that at European XC, but I tend to think these top 3 are the most likely winners.
Hull had a beastly leg in their home World XC, Olli struggled a bit. Munguti has been completely dominant on his legs, Cheruiyot has shown well, though he got smoked in a road mile in Saudia Arabia recently (unclear the story there — likely got his break after qualifying for Team Kenya). The rest of these legs I'd say a little less sure but Myers ran great at the full distance, and Strand I have zero doubts on. Morris clearly in very good shape. If Kenya could anchor their men, I'd still pick them for the win. But Australia potentially closing with Hull makes me think the come out on top.
