No Clear Favorite for NXN Girls Title?

As far as I know, the only sub-17 performances on WakeMed are:

Irene Riggs 16:02.1 2022

Katelyn Tuohy 16:22.8 2019

Averi Lowen 16:27.2 2025

Allie Zealand 16:34.3 2023

Nevada Mareno 16:36.2 2016

Averi Lowen 16:37.3 2025

Aisling Cuffe 16:40.9 2010

Kelsey Chmiel 16:43.8 2018

Ryen Frazier 16:44.3 2014

Abby Faith Cheeseman 16:44.3 2023

Calysta Garmer 16:50.0 2025

Jazzlyn Garmer 16:50.1 2025

Maysen Fletcher 16:53.3 2025

Madeline Dorsch 16:55.3 2025

Calysta Garmer 16:58.5 2025

Averi Lowen 16:59.2 2024

Madeline Dorsch 16:59.7 2025

Just for reference, when Lowen ran the 16:27.2, Lily Alder ran 17:00.0 and Mackenzie Skelly ran 17:08.0. Maysen Fletcher won the Brooks South Regional today, Calysta Garmer was 3rd and Madeline Dorsch was 4th.

I think Bartlett is the favorite but I would not count out Lowen.

It's pretty close between Bartlett, Lowen, and Dudek.

Wilson and Williams looked good today, but they still aren't on the level of the other 3 girls I just mentioned. Neither is Alder.

If the conditions are muddy at NXN then Bartlett and Dudek are the favorites. If the conditions are good, then Lowen has a shot. I don't see anyone else besides those 3 winning.

I wouldn't count out any one of the favorites given how different Glendoveer usually runs on NXN race day vs all other courses this fall.

Another way of handicapping this race: which course record holders/near record holders do you like the most?

Dudek breaking the historic, moderately hilly La Verne Gibson CR by 13 secs in 16:18.

or

Bartlett missing the historic, very hilly Bowdoin Park CR set by Tuohy by 15 secs in 17:00.

or

Wilson breaking the historic, hilly Woodward Park CR set by Englehardt by 4 secs in 16:20.

I guess I would call these girls my favorite trio. The other three, who ran fast but on much flatter courses, comprise my contending trio.

So, I've gone from not having a favorite to picking Bartlett the favorite . . . to now where I have 3 favorites and 3 close runners up.

The Portland forecast I see is

Thu 04
Showers
44°
/42°
63%

Fri 05
Rain
53°
/47°
78%

Sat 06
Showers
53°
/45°
68%

The western section of the course will get run on 2-3 times by each HS race, 1-2 times by each 2K race, and 3 times by each 10K, 8K, 6K race. There is also a low point at about 1300 m of each course that can be very messy. Might be interesting for the USATF races.

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Will any of those athletes running on a muddy course up in Portland decide to pack it in, in preparation for the Championship in San Diego a week later?

Preparing to race the historic Balboa Park course, we’ve got the likes of:

Natasza Dudek
Blair Bartlett
Averi Lowen
Lily Alder
Gianna Rahmer
Addy Ritzenhein
Chiara Dailey
Sophia Rodriguez
Ellery Lincoln
Paige Spencer

Nope, the real HS championship is in Oregon. Cross country should be messy!

You keep calling her Paige Spencer when her last name is Sheppard.

Chiara Dailey is not running NXN.

None of those girls is likely to take it easy at NXN.

Chiara Dailey
Sophia Rodriguez
Ellery Lincoln
Are all not running NXN.

I fully admit that I am biased as a California native but I think Jaelyn Williams takes this in a surprise victory. She might not have the same level of national clout as some of these other girls but she's an absolute dog. She knows how to win.

"She knows how to win?" What big national meet has she ever won?

She's never won Foot Locker or even Foot Locker West Regional. She's never won NXN or any of the Nike and New Balance indoor or outdoor nationals. She hasn't won Brooks PR. She hasn't even won Woodbridge. "She knows how to win" because she won a state meet? So has almost every other top girl.

Happy you mentioned Williams.

Should have included her in the trio of slight favorites list posted earlier.

Never heard of any girl running the final mile of a 5k xc course in sub-5.

In her Div 1 race on Saturday at Woodward, Williams ran the first mile -- about 15 feet of downhill from the start -- in around 5:23. Then ran the final mile -- just retraced the first mile so about 15 feet of uphill -- in around 4:59.

Could she have run the first mile in sub-5:10 like Wilson did in her Div 2 race and kept up with Summer & outkick her in the end? Who knows?

However, again, rainy, sloggy Glendoveer is a completely different challenge. Who would have thought Aaron Sahlman would win 3 years back or Addy Ritz would win in 2023?

So, there can be no individual favorite come Saturday like there was last year with Jane.

Still believe the winner will come from the quattro of Dudek, Bartlett, Wilson, Williams but no surprise at all if Alder or Lowen or someone else not yet mentioned turns out to be the best mudder FTW.

I'm very weary of Bowen on a muddy cold xc course....

What is a girl?

Turn the Paige.

2025 Co-Favorites: Natasha Dudek & Blair Bartlett

2024 Muddy Course Top Returners

Addy Ritzenhein, 5th

Sophia Rodriguez, 8th

Elin Latta, 23rd

Delaney Reuter, 24th

Paige Sheppard, 30th

Avery Lowen, 78th

The California state course is much more than 15 feet downhill for the first mile. It's a least 30 feet downhill, maybe even 40 feet, which means that the last mile is 30 - 40 feet uphill.

And the last mile is not a full mile. It's at least 20 meters short of a full mile because the finish line doesn't go all the way back to the start line.

In any case, a 1580 meter last "mile" that is 30 - 40 feet uphill that is run in sub 5 is still very impressive.

I think that Williams and Wilson would have run pretty much the same time if Williams had gone out a little more aggressively. That would have given Williams the same 160 speed rating as Wilson. That's really good but it's still quite a bit behind the 165/166 speed ratings of Lowen, Bartlett, and Dudek.