Grant Hejny, Fork’s number 1 from the state meet, blew up at NXR, and Plewe was still coming back. If these two can put it together, I can see American Fork on the podium. Historically, they’ve always had solid runs at NXN as well.
goes to HS in a small Oregon coastal town and likes to run hard every time. If it goes tactical and people give him some space he could win it. He just signed with U of O, so confidence at an all time high probably.
It depends on how we use the term “sleepers”. On the boys side Niwot is the overwhelming favorite to win, but I would still give the “field” a 30% chance to pull off the upset with CBA or one of the other SW schools to most likely do it. The past two years the favorites were upset (Herriman upset AF in 23, Niwot and AF upset Herriman last year) so it’s not uncommon at all. I will say that Niwot is more of a favorite this year though than AF or Herriman were the last two years.
If “sleeper” is who will outperform expectations, we will need to wait for the at larges + CA to see the final start lines.
On the individual side it gets way harder to predict anything. The last 3 years I guarantee no one had Aaron Sahlman, Jojo Jordan or Charlie Vause winning NXN. Spencer definitely seems to be the favorite this year but I would not be surprised at all if literally any of the top 15 guys has a good race and wins it. So I don’t think you can really have a “sleeper” for the individual unless it’s someone who’s ranked 50+ and runs the race of thier life.
It depends on how we use the term “sleepers”. On the boys side Niwot is the overwhelming favorite to win, but I would still give the “field” a 30% chance to pull off the upset with CBA or one of the other SW schools to most likely do it. The past two years the favorites were upset (Herriman upset AF in 23, Niwot and AF upset Herriman last year) so it’s not uncommon at all. I will say that Niwot is more of a favorite this year though than AF or Herriman were the last two years.
If “sleeper” is who will outperform expectations, we will need to wait for the at larges + CA to see the final start lines.
On the individual side it gets way harder to predict anything. The last 3 years I guarantee no one had Aaron Sahlman, Jojo Jordan or Charlie Vause winning NXN. Spencer definitely seems to be the favorite this year but I would not be surprised at all if literally any of the top 15 guys has a good race and wins it. So I don’t think you can really have a “sleeper” for the individual unless it’s someone who’s ranked 50+ and runs the race of thier life.
Well, you could say Sahlman, Jordan and Vause were sleepers.
Grant Hejny, Fork’s number 1 from the state meet, blew up at NXR, and Plewe was still coming back. If these two can put it together, I can see American Fork on the podium. Historically, they’ve always had solid runs at NXN as well.
Grant had the flu last week and almost didn't make the trip. Plewe had an appendectomy two weeks before State, and the flu the weekend before NXR. With those two healthy, AF is 7 deep.
Who are the girls' and boys' sleeper picks for NXN? Including individuals and teams.
The Midwest Brooks results have me betting on the Southwest boys. An upset could come from anyone who qualified out of that region. The top nine Colorado boys skipped the Brooks Midwest Champs, yet four Colorado runners still finished inside the top 10. Those four placed 19th, 22nd, 31st, and 47th at NXR Southwest. By comparison, the Heartland and Midwest athletes who ran NXR finished 3rd, 6th, and 10th in their respective regions.
Who are the girls' and boys' sleeper picks for NXN? Including individuals and teams.
The Midwest Brooks results have me betting on the Southwest boys. An upset could come from anyone who qualified out of that region. The top nine Colorado boys skipped the Brooks Midwest Champs, yet four Colorado runners still finished inside the top 10. Those four placed 19th, 22nd, 31st, and 47th at NXR Southwest. By comparison, the Heartland and Midwest athletes who finished top 10 and also ran NXR finished 3rd, 6th, and 10th in their respective regions.
I’ve posted this before, but I think Vause and Jourdon were both unranked heading into NXN. Sahlman was in the 10-20 range, but I’d still call him a sleeper. I bet some people may have picked him for top 3, but there was a big enough sample of him losing to guys on his own team to say he was a pretty big surprise.
Although maybe we can say there truly are no more sleepers any more if a sleeper wins every year.
Still, I think I’d be surprised if anyone but about 5-7 guys won it this year. In the last three years, the only guy ranked in the top 3 to actually place in the top 3 is Nathan Neil. The top 3 going in will probably be Spencer, Leonard, and Fries. I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Horton or Van Meerten won. But beyond those few, barring really bad weather (very possible), I think it would come down to multiple top guys having unideal races for someone else to win. But I’m sure people were saying stuff like this each of the last three years too, so who knows
I’ve posted this before, but I think Vause and Jourdon were both unranked heading into NXN. Sahlman was in the 10-20 range, but I’d still call him a sleeper. I bet some people may have picked him for top 3, but there was a big enough sample of him losing to guys on his own team to say he was a pretty big surprise.
knows
Sahlman was ranked in top 5, and had finished top 5 previous year. He was only an afterthought since he was only third on his own team, and had never even won any xc race, due to all his stellar teammates.
If his resume was simply moved to any other team, he would have been that team's number one and considered a leading contender.
Still he was a sleeper, and an alltime great xc story. I believe he's also still the NXN course record holder. Pretty good third man.
I’ve posted this before, but I think Vause and Jourdon were both unranked heading into NXN. Sahlman was in the 10-20 range, but I’d still call him a sleeper. I bet some people may have picked him for top 3, but there was a big enough sample of him losing to guys on his own team to say he was a pretty big surprise.
knows
Sahlman was ranked in top 5, and had finished top 5 previous year. He was only an afterthought since he was only third on his own team, and had never even won any xc race, due to all his stellar teammates.
If his resume was simply moved to any other team, he would have been that team's number one and considered a leading contender.
Still he was a sleeper, and an alltime great xc story. I believe he's also still the NXN course record holder. Pretty good third man.
He was ranked 8th by Dyestat and 13th by MileSplit. 3rd preseason though I think.
I was going off MileSplit for ‘23 and ‘24, but DyeStat might’ve done a better job. They had Vause 26th, which I guess isn’t fair because MileSplit only does 25, but they also had Jourdon 8th.