Can Colin Sahlman make the USA Olympic 5000 meter team?

At NCAAs Sahlman was less than 20 seconds behind the winner, Habtom Samuel.

If you think Samuel is in sub-13, sub-27 shape, then Sahlman probably can run sub 13:10 and 27:20 right now.

I was not aware that Colin has ever run 13:19, but maybe he can do that now. You sound like a rookie. Sahlman would not be within 45 seconds of Samuel in a time trial 10000m on the track. Races can have various gaps which don’t mean much. Samuel has run 26:50. Sahlman maybe could run close to 28 now.

1500 feels like his best event for now. There were a lot of 1500/3000 guys who finished high at NCAAs last year in Murphy, Strand, Martin and Langon. I think only really Langon you could say is best at 5,000. Sahlman has enough speed for the 1500, and the US field at 5,000 is just as loaded now. With that in mind, I don’t think he should be rushing to move up. What’s holding him back as a 1500 guy is exclusively his tactics.

No, because Sahlman runs all his races on the outside of lane 1, lane 2 or lane 3. So 12.5 laps of that is too much

He can run much faster than 28:00, but given his 800m speed, the 1500m is his best distance.

The 5000m is different. There is plenty of room to run on the rail for most of the race. If Sahlman got boxed in a 800m or 1500m, you would criticizing him for that as well.

If OP meant to say, should he try out for the 15/5K double rather than the 15/800 double in 2028- maybe?

considering there are 5 guys about 2 seconds faster (or more) over 800, and his 5K potential is less of a “known”, it is an interesting thought.

This yes.

That he was the fastest HS XC runner in the nation his senior, would indicate he has good potential for the 5000m.

If he focuses on the 5,000m for the next Olympics, yes, he probably can make the team. I don’t think he is going to focus on the 5,000m, however. I see him aiming more towards the 800m/1,500m for a team spot. I believe he is the best American runner in several ways. I do believe he is the fill package and if he is able to stay healthy, he will be the best American runner in years to come. I believe the 16th place finish at NCAA’s really showed his range and what he is capable of. His cross-country performance is remarkable because he is not really a cross-country runner, he is the prime example of an athlete that utilizes cross country and a season to work on his strength and endurance for the oval. I am going to talk about his current personal records and based on percentages and algorithms that correlate with his overall performances and range of what he can probably run.

400m: 47 – Last indoor season he consistently ran the 400m at home meets in 48. He split 46.9 during the 4x400m. I would estimate this indoor season when he runs the 400m as speed work I do believe he will turn heads with a 47 or even 46.50 to 46.90.

800m: 1:42 – As noted this was the first year, he really focused on the 800m as a primary event. When you put your true focus on something it takes a season to really unwind and get comfortable with it. During his first season he ran 1:44.80 and I do believe this year once he learns the correct 800m strategy a sub 1:43 will realistically happen.

1,500m: 3:29 – The 3:33.96 he ran in 2024 was well before he developed into a 1:44 800m runner and before his endurance has really developed to the level it is currently at. I do believe he will possibly run 3:28 this summer.

Mile: 3:49 - At minimum he will break 3:50 this indoor season. I honestly think he is really coming into who he is as a runner and a sub 3:50 mile is well within his capability. At fastest I believe he will run 3:48 indoors.

3,000m: 7:30 – The current 7:40.41 listed personal best time for him is well under his capability. I don’t think there is a track fan/statistician out there that is going to be shocked if he runs 7:28 this season. The 7:40 he ran last year to me I was shocked that he did not run
faster. I was expecting at least 7:35 from him.

5,000m: 12:57 – This is based on his current 5,000m PR which was 2 seasons ago. Based on the events he primarily focuses on, I am willing to bet this was done primarily to get a 5,000m time on his resume. However, his current 3,000m PR combined with his 800m speed and his 1,500m/mile times a sub-13:00 is well within his abilities. The 12:57 is estimated as a minimum. I do think he could very likely run sub-12:50 and I would not be
shocked if he broke 12:40.

10,000m: 27:45 - His Cross Country Credentials mixed with his speed and endurance he could run at minimum 27:45. If he focused on the 10,000m I believe he could run between 27:00-27:20. I don’t think he is primarily a slow twitch runner. I do think sub-28:00 would not be difficult for him. He is leaps and bounds ahead of my abilities in my prime and a sub-30:00 10,000m for me was very easy.

I also think he can run the following in other events:

500m: 1:02 – He might even be capable of running 1:00-1:01. He can run 48 for 400m and I believe he can continue to hold a similar pace for another 100m.

600m: 1:15 – His current best is 1:17 and I believe he has only improved and developed. I think 1:15 is the correct prediction for him.

1,000m: 2:15 – At this point in college track several runners are running sub 2:20 for a 1,000m. He is leaps ahead of most college runners and I think a sub 2:20 1,000m is something he could do in practice. I estimate he can run 1:48 for 800m and close in 27 or so for 2:15.

His PR in the 5000 is 13:38 from 2024. No idea where you are getting this 13:19 number from. Also, I think this 13:10 might be too aggressive of a prediction of his fitness. 16th at NCAA’s is obviously hugely impressive given his 4/8 speed, but based on his placement in the race and the people around him, 27:50-28:10 guys, I would put him at least a bit slower in the 5k. That being said, Strand was only 8th or 9th last year, and look what he was able to do only a few weeks later in the 3k.

I don’t know about him probably making the 5000m team against Fisher, Hocker, Blanks and Young.

You are not someone who thinks with any degree of clarity. You have tried to correct me here, as you say Colin “can run much faster than 28:00,” except the intelligent know he cannot. Maybe he could one day, but he cannot now. If you think Colin can run 27:30 now, for example, then you have a 1:44, 27:30 runner, who would then be one of the best runners in US history. Colin is not that, not even close, although he may get there one day.

Nope. Huge Hocker fan. His race awareness is insane. He always find the rail and always finds a way to get out. The WC was the first time that I saw him getting caught and then he actually found a way. Simply got DQ.

Colin, Nordas and Khan (before he got caught with EPO) were/are the nightmare runners. They see to find a way not to hug the rail when they are in last place.

How many guys in the WC or Olympics have been DQed for trying to break free from being boxed? Hocker’s DQ in Tokyo was one the worst I’ve ever seen and it was ridiculous for it to happen in a semi that he could have easily advanced from. If Ingebrigtsen had stayed on the rail in Paris, Hocker wouldn’t have won. Freeing oneself from being boxed is difficult for everyone and is why runners will move away from the rail.

OK, but you can make your point without insulting me. I am as cordial on LR as I am in person.

My bad.

you both seem like complete idiot woomen to me, but as much as the OP

At BU in the next week or two, I think he’d be ~13:10. There’s a really good chance he could take down the NCAA 3k record too. He is FIT. 3:30 outdoors wouldn’t shock me after Strand did it earlier this year (and could’ve gone faster). Focused on the 800 outdoors and reached a new level, and has now reached a new level of strength based on his XC performance. He is gonna drop something nasty in the next 6 months (and maybe the next week).