NCAA (DI, DII, DIII) LACCTiC Simulations 2025

Don’t think Brian Musau is getting 15th at NCAAs.

Much appreciated!!!

9-28 seems like a reasonable range for someone who won Big 12s I would think. Hard to know whether last weekend was him taking it easy for nationals.

I don’t think Hartman has much of a shot at 2nd place (you list her 2-7), whereas, Lemngole should definitely be (2-X), instead of (3-X).

Hartman has been dealing with a foot issue all season, and based upon this season’s performances, her 15:11 Season Fitness Estimate is probably too generous (when comparing to others).

Here is a suggestion (which might take a lot of work to implement): let the reader, if he chooses, assign specific TiC values when wishing to compare between different simulations. (For example, maybe a coach, knowing an athlete is hampered, might want to knock down one of their athlete’s TiCs to see the effects for the purpose of making lineup substitution decisions.) 😊

I don't see an immediately clean way to implement that, so it would probably take a few hours to a day depending on how much help AI ends up being. I've been thinking about a "manual mode" that would let you click-and-drag the finish order (which is similar to your suggestion).

I'm not 100% convinced of the value added, since someone with inside info could just mentally add 10 seconds, see that she drops to 10th, and estimate that NC State would score approximately 10 more points. I guess this helps more with middle-of-the-pack runners, where the impact on the score is not the same as the runner's change in place.

Women

• Rank Team Score
• 1 NC State 93
• 2 BYU 155
• 3 Oregon 173
• 4 Iowa State 232
• 5 Notre Dame 234
• 6 Florida 238
• 7 New Mexico 286
• 8 Oklahoma State 302
• 9 Stanford 345
• 10 West Virginia 353
• 11 Colorado 380
• 12 Northern Arizona 401
• 13 Alabama 425
• 14 Northwestern 432
• 15 South Carolina 440
• 16 North Carolina 458
• 17 Georgetown 472
• 18 Penn State 474
• 19 LSU 481
• 20 Washington 482
• 21 Virginia 505
• 22 Washington St. 533
• 23 Wake Forest 541
• 24 Utah 552
• 25 Texas A&M 580
• 26 Missouri 592
• 27 Villanova 595
• 28 Boston College 648
• 29 Boise State 660
• 30 Wisconsin 673
• 31 Tennessee 699
• 32 Providence 700

Men

• 1 Oklahoma State 79
• 2 Iowa State 107
• 3 New Mexico 123
• 4 Virginia 216
• 5 Colorado 247
• 6 BYU 303
• 7 Syracuse 334
• 8 Wake Forest 342
• 9 Oregon 358
• 10 Butler 383
• 11 Alabama 385
• 12 Arkansas 391
• 13 Notre Dame 397
• 14 Northern Arizona 414
• 15 Washington St. 420
• 16 Oklahoma 442
• 17 Wisconsin 452
• 18 Tulane 467
• 19 Eastern Kentucky 506
• 20 Ole Miss 525
• 21 Michigan State 529
• 22 North Carolina 537
• 23 Georgia 548
• 24 Princeton 572
• 25 CBU 574
• 26 Air Force 604
• 27 Virginia Tech 614
• 28 Louisville 632
• 29 Harvard 652
• 30 Michigan 656
• 31 Georgetown 747
• 32 Iona 805

https://www.lacctic.com/simulate/teamIDs=325,320,1085,945,710,1340,35,946,1642,1344,249,42,943,796,3252,344,2436,142,1314,250,2437,949,256,2438,1892,1084,947,951,32,775,2440,1342&individualRunnerIDs=69077,73943,45867,112804,99150,125117,125498,125850,90186,125494,117696,117695,46642,108874,100189,87042,104467,93839,70670,83148,108453,126541,81332,105637,93787,95206,104411,119629,100575,62093,125714,119974,107970,125491,87694,105262,90896,121364&league=&deleted=/

https://www.lacctic.com/simulate/teamIDs=953,1329,2444,290,956,263,1079,291,1780,983,713,795,264,305,272,955,2448,193,268,1330,957,3253,58,2445,265,269,2447,57,1080,2442,270,53&individualRunnerIDs=90149,118474,77682,106169,127793,28437,96580,100144,114889,104429,118334,108865,73531,108928,118255,117252,72772,125354,69435,110020,69088,74306,83804,78632,66497,84704,110523,108900,120839,44320,78646,80178,100123,80437,63923,120734,121375,108901&league=&deleted=/

The the manual mode would be very helpful

I was at the southeast regional amd interviewed a number of these people I think that based on talking with Rocky Hansen and george Coultie that they’re both feeling extremely confident, Silvia Jeplelo of Clemson there was a big language barrier. Also, I believe it’s Hannah Grace of NC State.

I’m pretty annoyed with the stride report for continually rating UVA so high it seems quite lazy considering they don’t have that many consistent weapons and I don’t think dressed. Waale is that proven is a number two guy or the Princeton transfers are living up to expectations

Wow! Amazing amount of foreign runners. As is being asserted on another thread, NCAAs are not much of an American sport anymore. Should our universities (be required to)take more responsibility to develop American athletes?

Fantastic job!!! I would turn on the inactive runners since BYU may still run Jenna Hutchins, then delete Phoebe Anderson from NC State as she is out of eligibility.
www.lacctic.com/simulate/teamIDs=953,1329,2444,264,290,956,263,1079,291,1780,713,983,795,955,305,272,2447,1330,193,2448,268,957,3253,58,2445,265,269,57,1080,2442,270,53&individualRunnerIDs=100144,44320,108928,96580,73531,84704,125354,106169,108901,118334,28437,108900,121375,108865,72772,120839,77682,80437,114889,104429,80178,69088,110523,100123,110020,66497,78632,118474,117252,63923,127793,120734,74306,83804,90149,118255,78646,69435&league=&deleted=57642

I’d be shocked if he did worse than 5th. Dude got 5th last year, has broken 13 for 5k and won two NCAA track titles

Brian Musau is a wildcard, have to imagine he'll be top 5. B1G champ should place higher than 75th, we'll see if Leo Young can hold his 48 ranking.

D3 Mo Bati is the favorite and this has him at 9th place

Its funny, I'm so used to people complaining about the ratings including track or including old results that I assumed you thought his regional result should have him ranked lower.

There will always be individuals whose rankings are off. I don't think you can expect a computer ranking system to do any better than a heat sheet for a track race. I think the main benefit of the simulation is to see how a specific field may help or hurt certain teams (rather than trying to guess from things like time between 1st and 5th runners).

This seems like as good place as any to ask this question and get a knowledgeable response.

Typically, how many runners are nationals dramatically underperform expectations? There seems to be a trend of at least one contending team having an unexpectedly bad day. What are the odds?

l could see Iowa State laying an absolute egg and placing 5th-9th. Some other team ranked in the upper teens will probably be top 10, a school like Eastern Kentucky. Looking at the list North Carolina, Northern Arizona, Notre Dame, Washing State could outperform their ranking, Northern Arizona, Notre Dame, Washing State, Iowa State, Butler, and Wake Forest could drop back.

I hope you don’t take my comments, like the one regarding Hartman’s TiC as ‘complaining’. As intelligent humans, we have access to much more nuanced information that what we would expect your algorithm to have. The suggestion of being able to go in and manually modify individual TiCs was about that, and not at all a complaint about the program.

In 2023 NAU somehow underperformed more than NC State, so NC State’s win came as a surprise to an already crying Tuohy. Last year Oregon underperformed, and their coach had tearful eyes after the race.

The race pages for the last 2 years kind of answer this question. The arrows next to the individual results should give you a sense if individual variation. The arrows next to the teams are the difference from what was expected from a simulation the field immediately before the race (assuming the correct field was known).

Theres a bug with the team scores because team scoring is re-done every time you load the page. This unfortunately means that transfers mess up the scoring, since participants are being scored as running for their 2025 teams instead of the teams they represented at the time of the race. The bug is going to take some time to fix, sadly...

https://www.lacctic.com/races/8186/
https://www.lacctic.com/races/10174/
https://www.lacctic.com/races/10175/
https://www.lacctic.com/races/8187/

I’m curious how the scraping of Anika Thompson’s track times gave a 15:35 at BU instead of 15:31? Did you really enter that by hand??