JI wouldn't need to return to his 3000m/two-mile WR shape to break 12:35.36

Rubio wrote:

When Cheptegei broke the WR, maybe because few believed he could do it (I remember the discussion here and include myself), his last pacer dropped out not even halfway through the race.
And he ran the fastest laps alone.

Jakob could get pacing up to 3000 or 3200, exactly at WR pace or slightly faster, allowing him to “drop off” a bit once he's solo. I’m not sure what the most efficient way to structure that time trial would be.
He could get the record without necessarily hitting his peak shape (or Joshua's peak shape for that matter). And, personally, I wouldn’t raise an eyebrow: he’s earned the right to go for it under the best conditions he can set up, and at the end of the day, it’s still his legs that would have to cover 5000 meters in under 12:35.36

Rubio wrote:

When Cheptegei broke the WR, maybe because few believed he could do it (I remember the discussion here and include myself), his last pacer dropped out not even halfway through the race.
And he ran the fastest laps alone.

Jakob could get pacing up to 3000 or 3200, exactly at WR pace or slightly faster, allowing him to “drop off” a bit once he's solo. I’m not sure what the most efficient way to structure that time trial would be.
He could get the record without necessarily hitting his peak shape (or Joshua's peak shape for that matter). And, personally, I wouldn’t raise an eyebrow: he’s earned the right to go for it under the best conditions he can set up, and at the end of the day, it’s still his legs that would have to cover 5000 meters in under 12:35.36

justanothercuriousdude wrote:

Rubio wrote:

When Cheptegei broke the WR, maybe because few believed he could do it (I remember the discussion here and include myself), his last pacer dropped out not even halfway through the race.
And he ran the fastest laps alone.

Jakob could get pacing up to 3000 or 3200, exactly at WR pace or slightly faster, allowing him to “drop off” a bit once he's solo. I’m not sure what the most efficient way to structure that time trial would be.
He could get the record without necessarily hitting his peak shape (or Joshua's peak shape for that matter). And, personally, I wouldn’t raise an eyebrow: he’s earned the right to go for it under the best conditions he can set up, and at the end of the day, it’s still his legs that would have to cover 5000 meters in under 12:35.36

As a Jakob fan I’m a little unsure here… If Jakob isn’t as talented and good in the 5000m as Cheptegei it would of course be fun if he broke the WR with better conditions and pacing (fun, because one should now and then root for a clear underdog who exceeds himself). But then we all should acknowledge the asterix behind the new WR, and put even more respect on the Ugandan…

But if Jakob really has the talent and fitness for a real WR it should of course be run under the same conditions that Cheptegei had (for fairness). Unless Jakob totally shatters it….

Rubio wrote:

When Cheptegei broke the WR, maybe because few believed he could do it (I remember the discussion here and include myself), his last pacer dropped out not even halfway through the race.
And he ran the fastest laps alone.

Jakob could get pacing up to 3000 or 3200, exactly at WR pace or slightly faster, allowing him to “drop off” a bit once he's solo. I’m not sure what the most efficient way to structure that time trial would be.
He could get the record without necessarily hitting his peak shape (or Joshua's peak shape for that matter). And, personally, I wouldn’t raise an eyebrow: he’s earned the right to go for it under the best conditions he can set up, and at the end of the day, it’s still his legs that would have to cover 5000 meters in under 12:35.36

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Rubio wrote:

When Cheptegei broke the WR, maybe because few believed he could do it (I remember the discussion here and include myself), his last pacer dropped out not even halfway through the race.
And he ran the fastest laps alone.

Jakob could get pacing up to 3000 or 3200, exactly at WR pace or slightly faster, allowing him to “drop off” a bit once he's solo. I’m not sure what the most efficient way to structure that time trial would be.
He could get the record without necessarily hitting his peak shape (or Joshua's peak shape for that matter). And, personally, I wouldn’t raise an eyebrow: he’s earned the right to go for it under the best conditions he can set up, and at the end of the day, it’s still his legs that would have to cover 5000 meters in under 12:35.36

Well this is just a weird way to describe this - "without necessarily hitting his peak shape" because no, he might not need to be in exactly 7.17.55 shape (because nobody else in history has ever been in that shape over 3000m - including the last 3 WR holders in the distance), but to suggest he doesn't need to be in some type of career best form is a) a lofty expectation to say the least and b) slightly dismissive/disrespectful of that WR, is it not?

I really don't think he's rolling up first race of the season out of spring preparation and just casually busting out a 12.34. I would suggest he absolutely needs to be in career peak form to do this (and that would be slightly different in terms of the physiology from when he ran his 1500m and 3000m PR's 2 years ago).

What's conveniently overlooked with the 5000m WR is that the last 3 WR holders - Geb, Bekele, JC all broke the 10000m WR in the same season they took the 5000m too. At that level of running (basically 60 seconds a lap for 12.5) the aerobic strength needed is considerable. So if Jakob doesn't have quite that (who knows, he might be shifting focus this off season and maybe we see him right up there at world XC in the main event), then he better hope he can get back down under 7.20 for the 3000 or else he has no shot.

But saying anyone can break a WR in track without being in peak shape? That's a pretty hot take unless you just worded that wrong.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Rubio wrote:

When Cheptegei broke the WR, maybe because few believed he could do it (I remember the discussion here and include myself), his last pacer dropped out not even halfway through the race.
And he ran the fastest laps alone.

Jakob could get pacing up to 3000 or 3200, exactly at WR pace or slightly faster, allowing him to “drop off” a bit once he's solo. I’m not sure what the most efficient way to structure that time trial would be.
He could get the record without necessarily hitting his peak shape (or Joshua's peak shape for that matter). And, personally, I wouldn’t raise an eyebrow: he’s earned the right to go for it under the best conditions he can set up, and at the end of the day, it’s still his legs that would have to cover 5000 meters in under 12:35.36

Well this is just a weird way to describe this - "without necessarily hitting his peak shape" because no, he might not need to be in exactly 7.17.55 shape (because nobody else in history has ever been in that shape over 3000m - including the last 3 WR holders in the distance), but to suggest he doesn't need to be in some type of career best form is a) a lofty expectation to say the least and b) slightly dismissive/disrespectful of that WR, is it not?

I really don't think he's rolling up first race of the season out of spring preparation and just casually busting out a 12.34. I would suggest he absolutely needs to be in career peak form to do this (and that would be slightly different in terms of the physiology from when he ran his 1500m and 3000m PR's 2 years ago).

What's conveniently overlooked with the 5000m WR is that the last 3 WR holders - Geb, Bekele, JC all broke the 10000m WR in the same season they took the 5000m too. At that level of running (basically 60 seconds a lap for 12.5) the aerobic strength needed is considerable. So if Jakob doesn't have quite that (who knows, he might be shifting focus this off season and maybe we see him right up there at world XC in the main event), then he better hope he can get back down under 7.20 for the 3000 or else he has no shot.

But saying anyone can break a WR in track without being in peak shape? That's a pretty hot take unless you just worded that wrong.

adsfsdf wrote:

I know it won't happen but hear me out:

Cole Hocker as pacesetter (2nd pacesetter since I agree that you need an early pacesetter to help Hocker make it farther).

Why?

1. Obviously with 7:22 PR he is fast enough.

2. Hocker is more of a Mo Farah type 5000m runner, a guy who will hang on to a 13:00 5000m and then kick for medals. His primary event is still the 1500m, so he's not going to have the endurance for a WR himself. But if he helps Jakob get the WR, then if/when he outkicks Jakob for a 5000m gold medal, it just makes the win a little bit more legendary because he took down the WR holder.

3. Maybe Hocker has designs on eventually being the 5000m WR holder. So he gets this opportunity to run 3600m - 4000m at WR pace and gauge what it feels like, without the pressure of competition. He literally cannot lose, but would be the selfless hero (+ a cash bonus) for helping Jakob. Maybe he finds out he's almost in that shape and it gives him confidence to make his own attempt sometime later. Or he discovers that it's way harder than it looks on paper. So he avoids some future embarrassment of going for it and blowing up. Or (unlikely) he steps to the side and "dies" but still breaks the American Record. In any case he gets to test his ability against Jakob in a super fast race without putting his reputation on the line.

I know this will get mad downvotes but I like thinking up bizarre scenarios.

adsfsdf wrote:

I know it won't happen but hear me out:

Cole Hocker as pacesetter (2nd pacesetter since I agree that you need an early pacesetter to help Hocker make it farther).

Why?

1. Obviously with 7:22 PR he is fast enough.

2. Hocker is more of a Mo Farah type 5000m runner, a guy who will hang on to a 13:00 5000m and then kick for medals. His primary event is still the 1500m, so he's not going to have the endurance for a WR himself. But if he helps Jakob get the WR, then if/when he outkicks Jakob for a 5000m gold medal, it just makes the win a little bit more legendary because he took down the WR holder.

3. Maybe Hocker has designs on eventually being the 5000m WR holder. So he gets this opportunity to run 3600m - 4000m at WR pace and gauge what it feels like, without the pressure of competition. He literally cannot lose, but would be the selfless hero (+ a cash bonus) for helping Jakob. Maybe he finds out he's almost in that shape and it gives him confidence to make his own attempt sometime later. Or he discovers that it's way harder than it looks on paper. So he avoids some future embarrassment of going for it and blowing up. Or (unlikely) he steps to the side and "dies" but still breaks the American Record. In any case he gets to test his ability against Jakob in a super fast race without putting his reputation on the line.

I know this will get mad downvotes but I like thinking up bizarre scenarios.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

snowflakes wrote:

How exactly would he change his training though? I think he pretty much trains like a 5000m runner from October-May (other than peaking for World Indoors). Doesn’t he do like 25x400m every week at 10k-5k pace? We also know he tries out sessions like the 6x800 (right before his 2 Mile) where he went 2:00 2:00, 1:55 1:55, 149.5, 1:49.5. He is presumably doing 5000 specific sessions in may/june, I could see him giving it a good go after a training camp in april.

Stop the 1500m/mile work he's doing/has done.

There is no way that guy ran 3.26 (or all these sub 3.30 races he has done) running his workouts at 5k-10k pace.

Sorry I respectfully disagree with the presumption he's doing only 5000m specific sessions in May/June - because as we know he only ever runs the 5000m at Championships which are usually later in the season. He starts almost every season running 1500's/miles.

I also think it was the introduction of more 5000m specific work to stack on to his 1500m/mile specific work which pushed him too far and got himself hurt. Last year was the first season we ever even heard murmurs of him going for a fast 5000 (Oslo) - was it just coincidence he ended up busted for the entire season?

He's not superhuman. The 1500 and 5000m records aren't what they were back in the mid to late 80s when Aouita was able to hold both (3.29 and 12.58) - both records are so good now they require considerable specificity. The 5 and 10 work together far more closely than the 1500 and 5 (and honestly even the 3 and 5).

snowflakes wrote:

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Stop the 1500m/mile work he's doing/has done.

There is no way that guy ran 3.26 (or all these sub 3.30 races he has done) running his workouts at 5k-10k pace.

Sorry I respectfully disagree with the presumption he's doing only 5000m specific sessions in May/June - because as we know he only ever runs the 5000m at Championships which are usually later in the season. He starts almost every season running 1500's/miles.

I also think it was the introduction of more 5000m specific work to stack on to his 1500m/mile specific work which pushed him too far and got himself hurt. Last year was the first season we ever even heard murmurs of him going for a fast 5000 (Oslo) - was it just coincidence he ended up busted for the entire season?

He's not superhuman. The 1500 and 5000m records aren't what they were back in the mid to late 80s when Aouita was able to hold both (3.29 and 12.58) - both records are so good now they require considerable specificity. The 5 and 10 work together far more closely than the 1500 and 5 (and honestly even the 3 and 5).

I understand what you mean, it’s a huge risk trying to hammer 1500m sessions on top of months of 100 mile weeks. Especially for him at this point. But I don’t believe this physiological difference in training exists for Jakob. He pretty much runs the same double threshold program from October -May (although he does stupidly introduce 1500m sessions in February/March for the indoor season).

Jakob’s training in May is perfectly suited for the 5000. Right off an altitude camp, plus a few 1500m sessions (The 5000 still has an anaerobic component) and he can put up a huge assault on 12:35.36.

justanothercuriousdude wrote:

Rubio wrote:

When Cheptegei broke the WR, maybe because few believed he could do it (I remember the discussion here and include myself), his last pacer dropped out not even halfway through the race.
And he ran the fastest laps alone.

Jakob could get pacing up to 3000 or 3200, exactly at WR pace or slightly faster, allowing him to “drop off” a bit once he's solo. I’m not sure what the most efficient way to structure that time trial would be.
He could get the record without necessarily hitting his peak shape (or Joshua's peak shape for that matter). And, personally, I wouldn’t raise an eyebrow: he’s earned the right to go for it under the best conditions he can set up, and at the end of the day, it’s still his legs that would have to cover 5000 meters in under 12:35.36

But then we all should acknowledge the asterix behind the new WR, and put even more respect on the Ugandan…

snowflakes wrote:

snowflakes wrote:

I understand what you mean, it’s a huge risk trying to hammer 1500m sessions on top of months of 100 mile weeks. Especially for him at this point. But I don’t believe this physiological difference in training exists for Jakob. He pretty much runs the same double threshold program from October -May (although he does stupidly introduce 1500m sessions in February/March for the indoor season).

Jakob’s training in May is perfectly suited for the 5000. Right off an altitude camp, plus a few 1500m sessions (The 5000 still has an anaerobic component) and he can put up a huge assault on 12:35.36.

Also, this really does make you wonder what he would have run for 5000m had he switched that 2 Mile in Paris to a 5000 or the Silesia 3000 to the 5000. Wonder if he regrets going after non olympic distance records especially now when there’s no guarantee he’ll ever be at the same form come may.